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China's Biggest Problems Are Political, Not Economic
Keywords:
Martin Feldstein says China is gaining control of three problems it faces of shrinking export markets, the effects from a large stimulus in response to the 2008 financial crisis, and inflation especially high real estate prices. The economy is shifting to higher role for services and less dependence on exports under the new five year plan. The real estate prices are levelling off after steep increases. And inflation is under control. New investment will go into infrastucture needs such as power development and low income housing. As the economic problems are being tackled, the political problems remain. China faces an aging population under its one child policy, and it will have to support an increasing number of retired people in the future. Inequality and corruption are two problems that continue to grow and present challenges to the new leadership taking over in 2013.
Changes in China's export driven economy
11/08/2007
China's policymakers are shifting the economy from a manufacturer of low cost goods by increasing worker protections, wages and environmental controls towards more innovation and technology added product which are made respecting workers and the environment. Inflation and the stronger yuan are speeding up this shift.
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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
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Niall Ferguson at Harvard and Moritz Schularick of the Free University of Berlin say giving a peaceful death to this monster is long overdue. Krugman also calls this a world out of balance on the pages of the NYT, November 16, 2009.
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China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
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Apple Says App Store Sales Rose 50% in 2014
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China's policy shift to a less export dependent economy.
05/29/2010
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How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story
Wall Street Journal 09/16/2013
Yuan's Rise Hurts China's Exporters
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Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
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U.S. Apparel Retailers Turn Their Gaze Beyond China
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Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
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Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
The economy of China in 2010-2012
12/30/2009
Hazards and prospects.
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Three Hurdles for China in the Year of the Tiger
New York Times 12/30/2009
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New Yorker 01/04/2010
China Dethrones Germany as Top Goods Exporter
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China Aims to Transform a Nation of Savers Into Spenders
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China Sees Growth Engine in a Web of Fast Trains
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The World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC) Report "China: 2030"
01/06/2008
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Beijing Signals a Shift on Economic Policy
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Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
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The views of Derek Scissors and other experts on China's economic prospects after 2010.
01/07/2010
The likelihood that the economy will stall without change. The declining effect of large stimulus and fixed investment in producing growth. The interests of state-owned companies in continuing with the current system.
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U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
China's banks: Great Wall Street
Economist 07/10/2010
Banyan: Afloat on a Chinese tide
Economist 09/02/2010
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
China- interest rate increases to fight inflation 2011-2012
06/11/2010
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China Inflation Rises to a 19-Month High
New York Times 06/11/2010
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China's limited monetary and fiscal policy options in 2011-2012
04/14/2010
Higher inflation and a bubble in property prices limit the use of monetary policy. A lending binge in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis, and resulting bad loans, limits China's spending options in 2011.
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Still Reserved on China's Policy Shift
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New York Times 12/18/2011
Long-term understanding of the U.S. economic crisis - The Washington Post
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Inflation in China 2010-2013
01/19/2008
Rising food and energy prices.
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Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
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Chinese Banks Raise Cash to Cushion Against Bad Debts
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China's declining housing prices in 2012 and the impact on sales of furniture, appliances and other products.
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Martin Feldstein on China's efforts to control inflation, rising real estate prices, and shift its economy away from export led growth in 2011-2013
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Feldstein says China has the economic problems of inflation, the effects of the large stimulus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and overdependence on exports, under control. The new five year plan gradually shifts the economy towards greater reliance on services and a shift away from export led growth. The smaller stimulus of 2012 is being guided to necessary infrastructure such as power development and towards low income housing. China has still to tackle problems with an aging population and its one-child policy, inequality and corruption in government. These will be challenges facing the new government.
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China's Biggest Problems Are Political, Not Economic
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China- inflation, the currency, and economic mismanagement, the situation in 2010-2012
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Efforts to strengthen the currency are being resisted by export interests. Inflation is hurting consumers who are limited to earning 2.75% interest on savings, with the interest rate spread designed to help banks earn their way through bad loans made during the stimulus lending binge. A massive reallocation of resources away from consumers and towards lending to state-owned companies which create overcapacity in industries and engage in real estate speculation. Far from rebalancing the world economy this will affect internal growth in China.
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Economist Wu and the growing crony capitalism, increasing inequality, and corrupt bureaucrats in China.
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Wu is not optimistic about the future because he says the crony capitalists and bureaucrats want to get richer and their is a widening income gap and other problems that remain hidden because of the lack of a free media.
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The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
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OECD report cites rising income inequality - The Washington Post
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Peopleâs Daily Article Appears to Rebuke Wen Jiabao
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Uncertainty bedevils the best system
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Hong Kong Wealth Gap on Display in Protests
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Krugman on economic policy and prospects for China in 2012-2013
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The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
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The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
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Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
The U.S., China, and 'Rebalancing' the World Economy
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'Rebalancing' is the idea that China will consumer more US goods and export less to the US, reducing the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. China's government continues its focus on exports and infrastructure in 2009-2011. China's banking system focusses on lending to state-owned companies and the system does not have the attitude, incentives or the mechanisms and experience to increase lending to consumers or small business. Experts say rebalancing is doubtful without serious changes in the banking system and government policy which are not likely.
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Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
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Adidos and Hotwind? In China, Brands Evoke Foreign Names, Even if They’re Gibberish
New York Times 12/26/2014
2010 high Inflation and asset price bubbles in in India and China, and low or no inflation in Europe, Japan and the USA.
01/14/2010
Wide divergence in conditions and the prospects of tightening credit in Asia affecting export prospects of the USA which depends on exports for half the growth generated in 2009 and early 2010 according to Commerce Department figures.
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Japanese Economic Data Give Abe a Lift
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India's Central Banker Lobbies Fed
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Staying Away from Indian Bonds
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Corrosive Inflation Eats at Developing World
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2014
Japan and China: Edging closer
Economist 10/06/2014
China's jobs situation, unemployment, stimulus and growth strategies in 2012-2015
06/04/2012
The excess demand for labor in China in 2012 compared to the excess supply of labor during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This has implications for stimulus spending plans, with the measured and selective response in 2012. Another factor is inflation with a 20% rise in wages in the manufacturing sector in 2011, according to the China statistics bureau, so that a large stimulus risks losing the benefits onf anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012. High growth was intended to keep social stability, with excess demand for labor in 2012 this is less of a priority.
Grouped Articles
Strains Show in China's Job Market
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2014
In China, Beijing Fights Losing Battle to Rein In Factory Production
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
Chinese Steel Expert- N Way Out for Mills Caught in Crackdown
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
China's price controls to slow inflation
06/11/2010
Grouped Articles
China Inflation Rises to a 19-Month High
New York Times 06/11/2010
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2010
China Acts to Prevent Collusion on Prices
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2011
The Latest American Export: Inflation
Wall Street Journal 01/18/2011
New York Times 01/20/2011
Rising Price Pressures Spur Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2011
Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Real estate speculation and land prices in China 2011-2014
09/26/2011
Grouped Articles
Global property markets: Boom and gloom
Economist 05/27/2013
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Hard to Construct a Case for China Property Rebuild
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2014
Heavy Is the Crown for China's Land Kings
Wall Street Journal 11/25/2011
Land Dispute in China Town Sparks Revolt
Wall Street Journal 12/15/2011
New York Times 12/18/2011
Housing prices in China- 2010-2014
01/21/2010
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
In China, Sobering Signs of Slower Growth
New York Times 03/05/2012
China's property market: Protecting the middle class
Economist 02/05/2011
Beijing Directs More Funds Toward Affordable Housing
Wall Street Journal 03/10/2011
China: Subsidized, Not Subprime
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2011
Feldstein and Krugman offer their views on China, the years of hypergrowth and the problems now facing China in 2013-2014
12/18/2011
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
China's Biggest Problems Are Political, Not Economic
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2012
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