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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
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The annual report on China by the IMF points to a diminishing margin of safety and higher risks for delays in needed economic changes from earlier infrastructure and construction focussed policies which neglected Chinese consumers and savers. The IMF pointed to risks from the shadow banking system and the real estate bubble that need to be addressed.
The IMF report on risks facing China's economy in 2013 and the "shrinking margin of safety" for making policy changes
07/17/2013
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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
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Decline in housing prices in China and the impact on retail sales and the economy.
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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
China's local government debt poses a risk for the economy
06/17/2010
China's local government debt is estimated to be in the range of 27% to 42% of GDP. Loans by banks to local government financing vehicles face high risk of default.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
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China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Rapid acceleration in credit growth in China after 2008 and the complacency about the risks to the financial system
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New York Times 09/21/2011
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
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Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2010
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Junk bonds issued by China's housing developers in 2013-2014 and the higher risks to foreign investors
09/21/2011
The yields on these bonds have declined from 11-12% in 2012 to 7-8% in 2013. Investors risk losing everything as the bonds are issued by foreign subsidiaries and are not backed by the housing developer's assets in China. Creditors and banks in China are the first to get their money back in a bankruptcy as in the case of the bankruptcy of Suntech Power, while foreign bondholders risk complete losses. Developers in China are increasing issuance of junk bonds as there is limited access to other sources of financing.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Critics Decry Risks Posed by Link Between China's Banks and Bonds
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2013
Bond Market in China May See First Local Default
New York Times 03/04/2014
The Man at the Center of Solar-Panel Maker Suntech's Fall
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
IMF reports on China's economy
11/15/2011
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China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
I.M.F. Warns China on State Control of Banking
New York Times 11/15/2011
Deconstructing China's Urban Legend
Wall Street Journal 01/18/2012
World Bank Predicts Slower Growth and Urges Precautions
New York Times 01/17/2012
Growing Risks for the Chinese Economy going into 2010-2014
01/14/2010
One is a concern that China may like Japan in the 1980's is getting into a property and asset price bubble after aperiod of rapid industrialization and shifting of rural population to the cities. The risks of an overheating economy were growing with a 22% jump in a broad measure of money supply in March 2010.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Economist 01/14/2010
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
Large exposure to local government financing vehicles of China's smaller banks
06/17/2010
Larger banks have a smaller portion of their loans made to local government financing vehicles than the larger banks. Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commerical Bank of China have 6-7% of their loans made to local government financing vehicles, compared to 20% for Everbright Bank and 13-20% for other smaller banks. This means they will be the first to be in trouble in a financial crisis because of the high risk and poor asset quality of such loans.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2013
Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2010
BusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Risks in 2013-2014 from the bubble in China's housing prices
04/14/2010
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
In China, Sobering Signs of Slower Growth
New York Times 03/05/2012
New economic policies of the Jinping-Keqiang administration in China- 2013 -2014
06/24/2013
A shift in policies of the central bank, the People's Bank of China, tightening credit in June 2013 to send a signal to banks to improve the quality of lending. This is part of the effort to control the surge in lending that is leading to hidden debt and large amounts of loans in default in the poorly regulated shadow banking system which poses serious risks to economic growth.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Distress Signs Test Beijing's Resolve
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
As Markets Seesaw, Chinaâs Central Bank Tries to Allay Concern on Tight Credit
New York Times 06/25/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
China's jobs situation, unemployment, stimulus and growth strategies in 2012-2015
06/04/2012
The excess demand for labor in China in 2012 compared to the excess supply of labor during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This has implications for stimulus spending plans, with the measured and selective response in 2012. Another factor is inflation with a 20% rise in wages in the manufacturing sector in 2011, according to the China statistics bureau, so that a large stimulus risks losing the benefits onf anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012. High growth was intended to keep social stability, with excess demand for labor in 2012 this is less of a priority.
Grouped Articles
Strains Show in China's Job Market
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2014
In China, Beijing Fights Losing Battle to Rein In Factory Production
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
Chinese Steel Expert- N Way Out for Mills Caught in Crackdown
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
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