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An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
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Simms looks at the Plaza Accord of 1985 and the 60% appreciation of the yen, the lowering of interest rates and the real estate bubble that followed, and what this tells China's economic planners about managing the renminbi. A academic member of the People's Bank of China, Yu Yongding, sees one of the lessons as how Japan mismanaged the aftermath and creation of the asset bubble. There may be different complexities in China's situation with the increase in local government debt and loans in the shadow banking system, so that China cannot become complacent.
Currency issues- China in 2010-2013 and Japan during the period of the Plaza Accord in 1985
09/21/2010
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The role of the yuan pegged to the dollar in all this. The need for action to let the currency appreciate now rather than later.
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The U.S. Treasury says Japan should use monetary policy for promoting economic growth and not for gaining an advantage in international markets.
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Peter Morici of the University of Maryland and others express their view in 2009 on what needs to happen. The dollar Morici says needs to be devalued 40-50% against the yuan. He says that while China talks about an alternative reserve currency, it is part of the problem. And the crisis was caused by the U.S. demand that was inflated by the cheap yuan and then collapsed, says Morici.
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By letting the yuan China can shift the benefits to households, who will have more purchasing power, and reverse the shift that has taken place in the last 10 years, with domestic consumption making up about 36% of GDP- down by about 10 points from ten years earlier. State owned companies gained at the expense of households, as did infrastructure spending, but it is leading to misallocation of investments and hurting households. As a result China will hit a growth wall in the next 2-3 years, says Roubini.
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