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Unrest Grows as Economy Booms
Keywords:
Su Liping, professor at Tsinghua Unversity, says there were 180,000 protests, riots and other incidents, protesting economic injustice in 2010. Most of the incidents were against land grabs, corruption and abuses by local officials, and unpaid wages. Inflation has hit the poor, migrant workers and people with low incomes hardest. Food prices were up 13.4% in August over the same month prior year. Pork prices were up 52.3%. Other problems are now meshed in with inflation. Local government debt in China, according to the National Audit Office, was 10.7 trillion yuan in June 2011. The National Audit Office estimates 23% of this, or 2.5 trillion yuan, depends on land for repayment. Analysts say China's local government made repayment in 2010 using the 2.9 trillion yuan in revenue from land sales. The same amount of land has to be sold in 2010 to make repayment. At lower prices even more land may have to be sold. The danger say Orlik and Jie, is that inflation and the pressure to acquire more land- and consequently more land grabs- will pose severe risks to the social contract in China.
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China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
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Policy actions taken by China to address the global economic crisis's impact on Chinese growth rate including land policy for farmers and export rebates.
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Trade Losses Rise in China, Threatening Jobs
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China- inflation, the currency, and economic mismanagement, the situation in 2010-2012
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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Rapid urbanization from 10% in 1949 to over 50% today and the challenges today of integrating migrant workers in urban areas. Li Keqiang, the new premier focussed on urbanization in his research and papers.
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Land Dispute in China Town Sparks Revolt
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China's migrant workers.
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The situation for migrant workers before and after the crisis, and after stimulus efforts.
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China: A Billion Strong but Short on Workers
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Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
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Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
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Rising food and energy prices.
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China Stimulus Spending and investment in infrastructure- 2008-2011
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China's efforts to revive its economy with a large Stimulus Spending Plan.
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China Lets Banks Lend 5% More This Year
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China's difficult political-economic choices in the post 2010 period.
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The difficult choices in the new environment- transition to a new leadership, how to change the export model without serious disruptions, how to deal with western demands for balanced global growth, dealing with the inequality and corruption generated in the kind of growth China experienced (by the fiat of the State), opening up freedom of expression to curb corruption and to provide representation for hitherto blocked out voices, transition to freedom of expression and democratic processes without serious disruption to thegrowth needed for employment and improvements in the standard of living across all parts of society and regions, reducing or channelling to constructive ends prevailing nationalistic, anti-western or anti-Japanese sentiment. The new leadership of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang is expected to be more outward looking than than of Hu Jintao and Wen Biao and comes at atime when China needs to make some difficult choices about future direction.
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Economist Wu and the growing crony capitalism, increasing inequality, and corrupt bureaucrats in China.
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Wu is not optimistic about the future because he says the crony capitalists and bureaucrats want to get richer and their is a widening income gap and other problems that remain hidden because of the lack of a free media.
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Uncertainty bedevils the best system
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Hong Kong Wealth Gap on Display in Protests
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The views of Derek Scissors and other experts on China's economic prospects after 2010.
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The likelihood that the economy will stall without change. The declining effect of large stimulus and fixed investment in producing growth. The interests of state-owned companies in continuing with the current system.
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U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
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New York Times 12/18/2011
China's banks: Great Wall Street
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Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
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Chinese debt: The great hole of China
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