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China Aims to Transform a Nation of Savers Into Spenders

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Since 2004 consumer spending's share of the economy in China has fallen from 40% to 35%.

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China Aims to Transform a Nation of Savers Into Spenders

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Tom Orlik on wealth distribution in China and why increasing consumer spending would require higher incomes for the lower middle class and rural households

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Orlik cites a study by a Chinese university which shows 10% of the households has over 80% of the wealth, and over 50% of the households have little or no savings. This suggests that there is not much room to increase consumer spending on education, healthcare, and consumer goods for these households as incomes are too low. This may account for the insecurity felt by a large majority of households about the future. It also shows that rebalancing the global economy would require rebalancing within China, reducing inequality and improving incomes for the middle class to increase consumer spending.

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Efforts to strengthen the currency are being resisted by export interests. Inflation is hurting consumers who are limited to earning 2.75% interest on savings, with the interest rate spread designed to help banks earn their way through bad loans made during the stimulus lending binge. A massive reallocation of resources away from consumers and towards lending to state-owned companies which create overcapacity in industries and engage in real estate speculation. Far from rebalancing the world economy this will affect internal growth in China.

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