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China's Silver Linings Playbook
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Orlik reports that the link between China's GDP growth and lending has broken down as credit expansion is accompanied by slowing growth. Slowing credit growth and lowering GDP growth even further is the price China's ecnomic planners are willing to take to forge a new path of sustainable growth, increasing efficiency of investment and increasing domestic consumption. The ratio of China's credit outstanding to GDP has jumped to about 180% in 2012 from 123% in 2008. Rapid expansion of credit is one of the danger signals before a crisis according to the IMF. Turkey and China are facing danger signals according to this IMF danger indicator.
Off-balance sheet shadow lending by Chinese banks.
01/12/2010
Even after the efforts to restrain lending in 2010 in China following heightened stimulus lending in 2009, the level of bank lending has exceeded 10.5 trillion yuan and is at the same level as 2009. This includes the lending through trusts and other mechanisms according to Fitch Ratings. This explains the inflationary pressures and property bubble.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
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Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Risks in China's banking and financial system in 2010-2015
12/11/2010
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and policies in 2011-2015
10/21/2010
The leadership and priorities of Zhou Xiaochuan, who has headed the PBOC, central bank of China, since 2002. He was appointed to a new third five year term in 2013.
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
IMF reports on China's economy
11/15/2011
Grouped Articles
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
I.M.F. Warns China on State Control of Banking
New York Times 11/15/2011
Deconstructing China's Urban Legend
Wall Street Journal 01/18/2012
World Bank Predicts Slower Growth and Urges Precautions
New York Times 01/17/2012
China's Debt crisis
07/29/2010
The debt of local governments estimated at between 27% of GDP by Dragonomics and the China's National Audit Office, to a much larger 42% by Prof. Shih of Northwestern University.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
05/29/2010
China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
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Mexico and China look to trade away old rivalry - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
New York Times 05/29/2010
Stiglitz and Sen's report point to need for looking at multiple indicators of growth, including education, health care and environment.
12/30/2005
Be skeptical of touting GDP growth numbers. China which has done this has learnt from this experience as it shifts to trying to assess the costs of environmental degradation in headlong industrialization. The U.S. and the shift to bigger houses and bigger cars, which later fed a collapse of housing and the auto industry show a different angle of this obsession with GDP numbers that can work constructively or destructively if not understood and managed properly. Air quality and pollution is a major problem in China and affects the quality of life.
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Pollution Is Radically Changing Childhood in Chinaâs Cities
New York Times 04/22/2013
China Seeks to Calm Anxiety Over Rice
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2013
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Anger Spills Onto Brazil's Streets
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2013
Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurry
Economist 05/21/2011
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Quarterly GDP growth in China 2012-2014
01/18/2013
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Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
Beijing Should Scrap the GDP Target
Wall Street Journal 01/08/2014
Growth Rose 7.4% in First Quarter, China Reports
New York Times 04/15/2014
China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
New York Times 10/24/2014
Problems facing the China Bank Regulatory Authority (CBRC) for off-balance sheet lending and shadow banks
06/17/2010
Grouped Articles
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Distress Signs Test Beijing's Resolve
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China's banking system in 2010-2015
01/12/2010
The effects of the stimulus spending binge and speculative behaviours of local governments and state owned companies, on the loans made by state owned banks.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
04/14/2010
The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China GDP growth forecasts for 2013-2015
05/14/2013
Grouped Articles
Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
China's declining GDP growth in 2012-2015
07/13/2012
Grouped Articles
Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
China's search for a new model for growth with multiple indicators and not focussed only on GDP
10/02/2012
Grouped Articles
Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
China's local government debt poses a risk for the economy
06/17/2010
China's local government debt is estimated to be in the range of 27% to 42% of GDP. Loans by banks to local government financing vehicles face high risk of default.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
The broken link between credit expansion and GDP growth in China (1)
06/24/2013
Orlik and the editors of the WSJ point to the broken link between GDP growth and credit expansion. The IMF warns of increasing credit expansion. Stalling productivity growth and waste means every dollar of investment is bringing in less GDP growth. Stiglitz and Sen point out the need for improving other indicators such as healthcare, education and the environment as an overall guage of progress not just GDP growth. The new Chinese leadership is aware of the need for rebalance the economy towards consumer spending. Moves to reduce healthcare costs form the first efforts in this direction. Search terms "Orlik," "rebalancing."
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China scraps exclusive focus on GDP growth targets from economic necessity- the breakdown of the link between credit expansion and GDP growth
06/24/2013
Linked Articles
Its Growth Targets Elusive, China Focuses on Jobs and Quality of Life
New York Times 03/13/2014
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
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