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China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
Keywords:
Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development.
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Niall Ferguson at Harvard and Moritz Schularick of the Free University of Berlin say giving a peaceful death to this monster is long overdue. Krugman also calls this a world out of balance on the pages of the NYT, November 16, 2009.
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With surging credit growth this stimulus is smaller, and being financed by the federal government which has more leeway than local governments burdened with debt. The carefully calibrated credit growth is seen as a smaller risk- as China's credit growth has reached bubble proportions- than letting the economy grow below about the 7% needed to create 10 million new jobs. The investments are focussed on railways in southern and western China to support new export based industries, and on low income housing for shantytowns. This gives a chance for poorer regions and poorer sections of the population to catchup as the focus shifts to reforms, and new emphasis on pollution and other indicators of better living conditions.
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Be skeptical of touting GDP growth numbers. China which has done this has learnt from this experience as it shifts to trying to assess the costs of environmental degradation in headlong industrialization. The U.S. and the shift to bigger houses and bigger cars, which later fed a collapse of housing and the auto industry show a different angle of this obsession with GDP numbers that can work constructively or destructively if not understood and managed properly. Air quality and pollution is a major problem in China and affects the quality of life.
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Linked Articles
China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
New York Times 10/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
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