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Will China Break?
Keywords:
Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage.
Krugman on China, "shadow banking," bubble in housing and construction, and shrinking role of consumer spending in GDP growth
04/14/2010
Krugman says China's economic planners are no better then planners in the U.S. and Europe who failed to take action against the housing bubble.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Heard on the Street: Shadow Boxing With Risk at Chinese Banks
Wall Street Journal 09/22/2013
Levels of U.S. imports and the rebalancing of the economies of the U.S. and China
12/11/2010
Grouped Articles
Cities Adapt With Mixed Results
Wall Street Journal 09/27/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Surging Imports
Wall Street Journal 05/06/2015
Dollar’s Rise Lifts Imports and Widens Trade Gap
New York Times 05/05/2015
Asian economies: Importing pessimism
Economist 12/11/2010
The views of Derek Scissors and other experts on China's economic prospects after 2010.
01/07/2010
The likelihood that the economy will stall without change. The declining effect of large stimulus and fixed investment in producing growth. The interests of state-owned companies in continuing with the current system.
Grouped Articles
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
China's banks: Great Wall Street
Economist 07/10/2010
Banyan: Afloat on a Chinese tide
Economist 09/02/2010
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
2010 high Inflation and asset price bubbles in in India and China, and low or no inflation in Europe, Japan and the USA.
01/14/2010
Wide divergence in conditions and the prospects of tightening credit in Asia affecting export prospects of the USA which depends on exports for half the growth generated in 2009 and early 2010 according to Commerce Department figures.
Grouped Articles
Japanese Economic Data Give Abe a Lift
Wall Street Journal 06/10/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
India's Central Banker Lobbies Fed
Wall Street Journal 10/13/2013
Staying Away from Indian Bonds
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2013
Corrosive Inflation Eats at Developing World
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2014
Japan and China: Edging closer
Economist 10/06/2014
China's real estate bubble and risks of a hard landing in 2012-2014
01/14/2010
Decline in housing prices in China and the impact on retail sales and the economy.
Grouped Articles
Global property markets: Boom and gloom
Economist 05/27/2013
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Signals such as the wine price bubble and the bubble developing in China
01/17/2009
Grouped Articles
China Can't Slake Its Thirst for Costly Wine
BusinessWeek 11/18/2010
Fears Mount That China Is Headed for a Slowdown
New York Times 12/12/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2010
Cooking Oil's Surge Shows How Inflation Hits Chinese
Wall Street Journal 01/01/2011
China Alters Measure of Credit Growth
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2011
The Granddaddy of All Bubbles?
BusinessWeek 04/14/2011
Growing Risks for the Chinese Economy going into 2010-2014
01/14/2010
One is a concern that China may like Japan in the 1980's is getting into a property and asset price bubble after aperiod of rapid industrialization and shifting of rural population to the cities. The risks of an overheating economy were growing with a 22% jump in a broad measure of money supply in March 2010.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Economist 01/14/2010
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
Real estate speculation and land prices in China 2011-2014
09/26/2011
Grouped Articles
Global property markets: Boom and gloom
Economist 05/27/2013
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Hard to Construct a Case for China Property Rebuild
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2014
Heavy Is the Crown for China's Land Kings
Wall Street Journal 11/25/2011
Land Dispute in China Town Sparks Revolt
Wall Street Journal 12/15/2011
New York Times 12/18/2011
Housing prices in China- 2010-2014
01/21/2010
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
In China, Sobering Signs of Slower Growth
New York Times 03/05/2012
China's property market: Protecting the middle class
Economist 02/05/2011
Beijing Directs More Funds Toward Affordable Housing
Wall Street Journal 03/10/2011
China: Subsidized, Not Subprime
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2011
China, Russia, and the search for or fear of pluralistic democracy, balanced development, and concern about corruption.
12/11/2007
The German book fair and other situations where China is faced with pluralistic options but fears them. And Medvedev's criticism and dialogue on the issues Russia faces in lack of pluralistic democracy and the need for the individual to play a bigger role in Russian life. The approaches in the two societies, problems and opportunities.
Grouped Articles
Washington Post 05/09/2013
Ex-Aide to Medvedev and Putin Out at Kremlin
New York Times 05/08/2013
Mayor's Rival Contests Moscow Vote Result
Wall Street Journal 09/09/2013
Xia Yeliang: The China Americans Don't See
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2013
Chinese Activists Challenge Beijing by Going to Dinner
Wall Street Journal 11/07/2013
New York Times 10/22/2010
Economist Wu and the growing crony capitalism, increasing inequality, and corrupt bureaucrats in China.
03/29/2009
Wu is not optimistic about the future because he says the crony capitalists and bureaucrats want to get richer and their is a widening income gap and other problems that remain hidden because of the lack of a free media.
Grouped Articles
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
OECD report cites rising income inequality - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/06/2011
Survey in China Shows a Wide Gap in Income
New York Times 07/19/2013
Peopleâs Daily Article Appears to Rebuke Wen Jiabao
New York Times 10/27/2010
Uncertainty bedevils the best system
Unknown 04/15/2009
Hong Kong Wealth Gap on Display in Protests
New York Times 10/05/2014
The rule of law, corruption and doing business in China
10/27/2010
Grouped Articles
Bo Trial Gives Insight Into Life of Top Officials
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
PetroChina Loses $1 Billion in Market Value
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2013
Chinese Activists Challenge Beijing by Going to Dinner
Wall Street Journal 11/07/2013
Peopleâs Daily Article Appears to Rebuke Wen Jiabao
New York Times 10/27/2010
China Moves to Reinforce Rule of Law, With Caveats
New York Times 10/23/2014
The law at work: No more rooms
Economist 11/06/2014
Krugman on economic policy and prospects for China in 2012-2013
09/30/2010
Grouped Articles
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
New York Times 09/30/2010
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
China's Debt: You'll Grow Out of It
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
China's efforts to control the bubble in housing prices 2011-2014 and homebuyer efforts to evade restrictions
04/14/2010
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Compelling Signs the Chinese Property Boom Is Over
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2014
Hard to Construct a Case for China Property Rebuild
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2014
Risks in 2013-2014 from the bubble in China's housing prices
04/14/2010
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
Buyers Dodge Homeowner Limits in China
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
In China, Sobering Signs of Slower Growth
New York Times 03/05/2012
Tom Orlik on wealth distribution in China and why increasing consumer spending would require higher incomes for the lower middle class and rural households
01/07/2010
Orlik cites a study by a Chinese university which shows 10% of the households has over 80% of the wealth, and over 50% of the households have little or no savings. This suggests that there is not much room to increase consumer spending on education, healthcare, and consumer goods for these households as incomes are too low. This may account for the insecurity felt by a large majority of households about the future. It also shows that rebalancing the global economy would require rebalancing within China, reducing inequality and improving incomes for the middle class to increase consumer spending.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
Survey in China Shows a Wide Gap in Income
New York Times 07/19/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2013
The U.S., China, and 'Rebalancing' the World Economy
01/07/2010
'Rebalancing' is the idea that China will consumer more US goods and export less to the US, reducing the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. China's government continues its focus on exports and infrastructure in 2009-2011. China's banking system focusses on lending to state-owned companies and the system does not have the attitude, incentives or the mechanisms and experience to increase lending to consumers or small business. Experts say rebalancing is doubtful without serious changes in the banking system and government policy which are not likely.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
Economist 03/31/2010
Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2013
US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick
Economist 09/25/2010
Adidos and Hotwind? In China, Brands Evoke Foreign Names, Even if They’re Gibberish
New York Times 12/26/2014
Martin Feldstein on China's efforts to control inflation, rising real estate prices, and shift its economy away from export led growth in 2011-2013
01/06/2010
Feldstein says China has the economic problems of inflation, the effects of the large stimulus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and overdependence on exports, under control. The new five year plan gradually shifts the economy towards greater reliance on services and a shift away from export led growth. The smaller stimulus of 2012 is being guided to necessary infrastructure such as power development and towards low income housing. China has still to tackle problems with an aging population and its one-child policy, inequality and corruption in government. These will be challenges facing the new government.
Grouped Articles
Global property markets: Boom and gloom
Economist 05/27/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2010
China Inflation Rises to a 19-Month High
New York Times 06/11/2010
Compelling Signs the Chinese Property Boom Is Over
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
China's limited monetary and fiscal policy options in 2011-2012
04/14/2010
Higher inflation and a bubble in property prices limit the use of monetary policy. A lending binge in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis, and resulting bad loans, limits China's spending options in 2011.
Grouped Articles
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
Still Reserved on China's Policy Shift
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2011
Wall Street Journal 12/03/2011
New York Times 12/18/2011
Long-term understanding of the U.S. economic crisis - The Washington Post
Washington Post 03/19/2012
Bubbles developing in many countries in 2010-2013
01/17/2009
China being the largest bubble developing in mid 2010. The other bubbles developing in Brazil, Canada, India, and Australia.
Grouped Articles
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
Recognizing Bubbles But Still Cautious About Deflating Them
New York Times 09/10/2014
Canada Grapples With Housing Bubble Risk
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2016
Where Will the Next Financial Bubble Be?
BusinessWeek 05/06/2010
Off-balance sheet shadow lending by Chinese banks.
01/12/2010
Even after the efforts to restrain lending in 2010 in China following heightened stimulus lending in 2009, the level of bank lending has exceeded 10.5 trillion yuan and is at the same level as 2009. This includes the lending through trusts and other mechanisms according to Fitch Ratings. This explains the inflationary pressures and property bubble.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
China's looming asset price bubble in late 2009.
01/17/2009
The role of the yuan pegged to the dollar in all this. The need for action to let the currency appreciate now rather than later.
Grouped Articles
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2013
An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
Wall Street Journal 09/21/2010
Economist 10/08/2009
Economist 10/08/2009
Three Hurdles for China in the Year of the Tiger
New York Times 12/30/2009
China- inflation, the currency, and economic mismanagement, the situation in 2010-2012
01/07/2010
Efforts to strengthen the currency are being resisted by export interests. Inflation is hurting consumers who are limited to earning 2.75% interest on savings, with the interest rate spread designed to help banks earn their way through bad loans made during the stimulus lending binge. A massive reallocation of resources away from consumers and towards lending to state-owned companies which create overcapacity in industries and engage in real estate speculation. Far from rebalancing the world economy this will affect internal growth in China.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
China Inflation Rises to a 19-Month High
New York Times 06/11/2010
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2010
An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
Wall Street Journal 09/21/2010
World Bank Deletes Critical Passage on China
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2015
New York Times 01/20/2011
China imbalances in runaway growth-corruption, pollution, overbuilding, misallocation
06/27/2005
Grouped Articles
Pollution Is Radically Changing Childhood in Chinaâs Cities
New York Times 04/22/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Air Pollution From Coal Use Cuts Lifespans in China, Study Shows
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2013
New York Times 07/30/2013
Bo Trial Gives Insight Into Life of Top Officials
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Corruption, gangsterism, and abuse of power at the local level in China.
10/01/2009
Some things are reminiscent of when the Koumintang was in power. The perception still is that redress of grievances can be obtained in Beijing, even though the central governmet cannot control local corrupt officials.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 07/30/2013
Bo Trial Gives Insight Into Life of Top Officials
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Peopleâs Daily Article Appears to Rebuke Wen Jiabao
New York Times 10/27/2010
A Response to President Xi Jinping
New York Times 11/12/2014
Economist 06/11/2015
Economist 10/01/2009
Lack of freedom of the press, journalistic freedom, and the corruption at the local level in China
10/22/2010
The situation for dissidents and human rights in China and the lack of freedom of the press and freedom of assembly. The absence of ways for people to vent out their frustrations at corruption and abuse of power at the local level.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 07/30/2013
Xia Yeliang: The China Americans Don't See
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2013
New York Times 10/22/2010
Peopleâs Daily Article Appears to Rebuke Wen Jiabao
New York Times 10/27/2010
A Response to President Xi Jinping
New York Times 11/12/2014
What China’s Xi Jinping thinks about freedom - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/23/2015
China savings.
11/30/2009
Savers in China. Consumer spending's share of the economy since 2004 has fallen from 40% to 35%.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2015
China's State Firms Cling to Their Cash
Wall Street Journal 11/30/2009
Why the Chinese don’t spend : The New Yorker
New Yorker 01/04/2010
China Aims to Transform a Nation of Savers Into Spenders
Wall Street Journal 01/07/2010
New York Times 12/18/2011
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
China has its own Dutch tulip type bubble- in Pu-er tea!
01/17/2009
The bubble symptoms of the first decade of the twentyfirst century extends from tech, to real estate to tea! The bubble effects of the U.S. real estate bubble extended to little towns in the north of Norway.
Grouped Articles
Huaxi Journal: Sharing the Wealth in a Tiny Chinese Village
New York Times 07/11/2011
A County in China Sees Its Fortunes in Tea Leaves Until a Bubble Bursts
New York Times 01/17/2009
Economists: China Mirrors U.S. on Eve of Financial Crisis
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
We all have a stake in China’s real estate bubble - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/24/2011
China's IPO's in 2010-2011 and Fears of a Bubble
12/12/2010
Grouped Articles
Beijing Plans to Loosen Control Over IPO System
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2013
China's IPO Frenzy Raises Talk of a Bubble
New York Times 12/15/2010
Fears Mount That China Is Headed for a Slowdown
New York Times 12/12/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2010
The Granddaddy of All Bubbles?
BusinessWeek 04/14/2011
Silicon Valley and the technology industry: The new tech bubble
Economist 05/14/2011
China's Stimulus plans in 2012-2013 and the increasing risks of breaking by taking the unsustainable existing economic model even further
12/18/2011
Linked Articles
China’s stimulus policy means trouble down the road - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/31/2012
New York Times 12/18/2011
Renewed warnings in 2013-2014 for the housing price bubble in China (1)- Krugman, Nomura's Zhang and Chen
12/18/2011
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
Economists: China Mirrors U.S. on Eve of Financial Crisis
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2013
Krugman and Roubini on the misallocation of resources in China
10/02/2010
Linked Articles
Yuan Revaluation for China's Own Sake
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
New York Times 12/18/2011
Feldstein and Krugman offer their views on China, the years of hypergrowth and the problems now facing China in 2013-2014
12/18/2011
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
China's Biggest Problems Are Political, Not Economic
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2012
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