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China Dethrones Germany as Top Goods Exporter
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China surpassed Germany as the world's No. 1 exporter in the first 10 months of 2009, with $957 billion in exports compared to Germany's $917 billion, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Information Services, a Geneva based firm. With the global financial crisis China's exports fell 20.4% in the first 10 months of 2009 compared to 27.4% for Germany and 21% for the USA. Global consumer spending has fallen more than the capital goods and machinery exported by Germany. Yet these numbers suggest that there has been no significant change to the export models of the two countries even after the global economc crisis revealed cracks in the export model.
Changes in China's export driven economy
11/08/2007
China's policymakers are shifting the economy from a manufacturer of low cost goods by increasing worker protections, wages and environmental controls towards more innovation and technology added product which are made respecting workers and the environment. Inflation and the stronger yuan are speeding up this shift.
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This includes Krugman, recent Nobel Prize winner, Morici, University of Maryland, Hatzius of Goldman and Kasman of JP Morgan. Other experts also welcome the depreciation ogf the dollar as long as it is not a sudden drop. With consumers strapped, quantitiative easing reaching its limits, the stimulus in place, rising unemployment in 2010 and very poor capacity utilization, exports are a sure way to lift the economy. Morici and Krugman see a Chinese disconnect with it siphonig growth away from other countries through keeping its currency low. Morici cites the example of solar panels where China requires 75% domestic content for imports.
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The failure of the establishment of both parties in the USA to take action in the face of the loss of 5.6 million jobs in the last decade, with $4.3 trillion in trade imbalances. An issue which resonates with voters in the US and could lead to a fundamental realignent of American attitudes to globalization and free trade. The feeling that the free-trade deck is stacked against the USA by Asian countries. China's efforts to keep the yuan dollar exchange rate at levels that favor exports. China's accumulation of over $3 trillion in dollar reserves that are parked mostly in Treasury's that keep U.S. interests low. Distortons in the global economy from the failure to rebalance the world economy hurts China and the U.S.
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The story of Tandem, a bicycle manufacturer in Shunde, Guangdong province, and of other manufacturers targeting the domestic market.
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Frankly Speaking on the great recession, the dollar and trade deficits 2009-2012
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Peter Morici of the University of Maryland and others express their view in 2009 on what needs to happen. The dollar Morici says needs to be devalued 40-50% against the yuan. He says that while China talks about an alternative reserve currency, it is part of the problem. And the crisis was caused by the U.S. demand that was inflated by the cheap yuan and then collapsed, says Morici.
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Niall Ferguson at Harvard and Moritz Schularick of the Free University of Berlin say giving a peaceful death to this monster is long overdue. Krugman also calls this a world out of balance on the pages of the NYT, November 16, 2009.
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Feldstein says China has the economic problems of inflation, the effects of the large stimulus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and overdependence on exports, under control. The new five year plan gradually shifts the economy towards greater reliance on services and a shift away from export led growth. The smaller stimulus of 2012 is being guided to necessary infrastructure such as power development and towards low income housing. China has still to tackle problems with an aging population and its one-child policy, inequality and corruption in government. These will be challenges facing the new government.
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