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Can China Cool Its Economy?
Keywords:
Difficulties facing China from an overheating economy, a property bubble in many cities,, and a 22.5% jump in March in the broadest measure of money supply being the latest signs of trouble. The government announcement will show the economy growth at 12% rate in the 1st quarter of 2010 vs. 8.7% in 2009. The problem is that China may have acted too aggressively when the central bank increased money supply and state-owned banks in China's centralized banking system were ordered to jack up the lending. The $586 billion stimulus sent even more money to construction and energy companies. Without effective steps and fast the Chinese economy could run into serious problems.
Rapid acceleration in credit growth in China after 2008 and the complacency about the risks to the financial system
04/14/2010
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Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
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The effects of the stimulus spending binge and speculative behaviours of local governments and state owned companies, on the loans made by state owned banks.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
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New York Times 06/24/2013
China's limited monetary and fiscal policy options in 2011-2012
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Higher inflation and a bubble in property prices limit the use of monetary policy. A lending binge in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis, and resulting bad loans, limits China's spending options in 2011.
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BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
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Still Reserved on China's Policy Shift
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New York Times 12/18/2011
Long-term understanding of the U.S. economic crisis - The Washington Post
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China's real estate bubble and risks of a hard landing in 2012-2014
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Decline in housing prices in China and the impact on retail sales and the economy.
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Economist Wu and the growing crony capitalism, increasing inequality, and corrupt bureaucrats in China.
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Wu is not optimistic about the future because he says the crony capitalists and bureaucrats want to get richer and their is a widening income gap and other problems that remain hidden because of the lack of a free media.
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One is a concern that China may like Japan in the 1980's is getting into a property and asset price bubble after aperiod of rapid industrialization and shifting of rural population to the cities. The risks of an overheating economy were growing with a 22% jump in a broad measure of money supply in March 2010.
Grouped Articles
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Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
04/14/2010
The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
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China Stimulus Spending and investment in infrastructure- 2008-2011
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China's efforts to revive its economy with a large Stimulus Spending Plan.
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China Lets Banks Lend 5% More This Year
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China’s stimulus policy means trouble down the road - The Washington Post
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Krugman on China, "shadow banking," bubble in housing and construction, and shrinking role of consumer spending in GDP growth
04/14/2010
Krugman says China's economic planners are no better then planners in the U.S. and Europe who failed to take action against the housing bubble.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
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Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
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China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
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Heard on the Street: Shadow Boxing With Risk at Chinese Banks
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China's efforts to control the bubble in housing prices 2011-2014 and homebuyer efforts to evade restrictions
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Grouped Articles
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Compelling Signs the Chinese Property Boom Is Over
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Hard to Construct a Case for China Property Rebuild
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China's policy actions to address impact of global financial crisis 2008-2012
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Policy actions taken by China to address the global economic crisis's impact on Chinese growth rate including land policy for farmers and export rebates.
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Hazards and prospects.
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Why the Chinese don’t spend : The New Yorker
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China's bubbles in stock and property markets and fears of a sharp downturn.
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Excessive bank lending followed now by excessive tightening of monetary policy could lead to as sharp downturn.
Linked Articles
Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
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