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Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery
Keywords:
The authors, Becker, Davis and Murphy, are from the University of Chicago. They point out that the uncertainty created by the Obama administration's programs including healthcare and social investments in education, energy conservation, and the desire to reduce carbon emissions, all tend to slow business expansion and investments to create jobs by putting additional costs on business. The expanding federal deficit and national debt also create additional uncertainty. Their point is that it was a mistake to start making major changes to transform the U.S. economy at this time, and that it would have been wiser to do these changes after the economy had recovered completely from the crisis. All efforts they say should have been concentrated on establishing conditions for a strong recovery. When combined with the lack of regulatory reforms to fix problems left behind from the crisis, and other failures, serious questions arise about how things will turn out in coming years. See Krugman- The Feeling of 1937, where Krugman takes this up from another angle, again with concerns about the future.
The American economy in 2010-2012: Looking ahead the risks and possibilities.
10/01/2009
Housing, hiring, the strength of the stimulus and capital spending will determine what 2010-2012 looks like for the U.S. economy.
Grouped Articles
Michelin Issues Cautious Outlook
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2009
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick Says
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Hiring, Business Investment and Other Big Variables That Will Drive 2010 Economy
Wall Street Journal 12/28/2009
Growing Risks for the U.S. Economy in 2010-2012.
01/04/2010
Risks of another hit from losses on home equity loans to bank balance sheets in latter part of 2010. The situation with local and state governments in the USA cutting back significantly. The situation in Europe and an overheating Chinese economy.
Grouped Articles
The Home-Equity Hurt Ahead for Banks
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market Bubble
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2010
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2010
Real Disposable Income: Bad News for Democrats?
BusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Wall Street Journal 06/12/2010
Deficit spending and the U.S. economy
01/04/2010
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Why the Old Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/12/2011
President's Focus: $4 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 07/12/2011
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Our advice to the debt supercommittee: Go big, be bold, be smart - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/01/2011
Shiller, Mankiw, Frank, Thaler and Romer offer their ideas about the U.S. economy for 2012-2013
01/04/2010
Grouped Articles
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
15 Economists Issue Crisis-Prevention Manual
New York Times 06/15/2010
How to Fix the Economy: An Expert Panel
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
Shiller Metric Carries Warning for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2014
Finance and economics: What's wrong with finance
Economist 05/09/2015
The Reagan Memo of 1980 by Shultz, Friedman and other advisors on prudent economic policies for growth
01/04/2010
George Shultz, Milton Friedman, Paul McCracken and other economic advisors jointly sent this memo to U.S. president Ronald Reagan before his first inauguration. The memo provides advice on economic policies and methods at a critical time of soaring inflation and a stagnant economy, with economic difficulties matching what the U.S. economy faces today from the housing bubble and slow growth. Advice on the Romney Plan.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 07/21/2011
Wall Street Journal 05/26/2012
Wall Street Journal 05/26/2012
Gramm and Hubbard: What a Romney Recovery Might Look Like
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2012
George Shultz: Memo to Romney — Expand the Pie
Wall Street Journal 07/14/2012
Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2010
Unemployment and partime unemployment in the U.S. economy 2008 and beyond.
04/18/2008
How unemployment is shaping up and how the underutilization rate and partime employment is changing the picture of employment in the USA.
Grouped Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Workers Get Fewer Hours, Deepening the Downturn
New York Times 04/18/2008
Many Hispanics Are Hit Hard by Economic Slump
New York Times 05/13/2008
A Hidden Toll on Employment: Cut to Part Time
New York Times 07/31/2008
Retail Losses Sap a Jobs Safety Net
Wall Street Journal 11/11/2008
Labor Data Show Pain Across Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/08/2008
Foreclosures and unemployment in the U.S.
05/04/2009
The Obama administration foreclosure relief programs were designed for subprime lending situations and not for the high unemployment. As a result few unemployed homeowners have benefitted.
Grouped Articles
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
Wall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
The Case Against the Bernanke-Obama Financial Rescue
New York Times 05/16/2014
New York Times 05/19/2014
New York Times 05/04/2009
New York Times 06/02/2009
How the economic crisis is affecting the U.S. as joblessness increases and people exhaust unemployment benefits.
07/10/2009
The situation in states like Michigan with the auto industry hit hard, and in other parts of the country.
Grouped Articles
Recipients of Jobless Benefits Down Sharply
Wall Street Journal 12/26/2014
Detroit's Food Banks Strain to Serve Middle Class
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2009
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
New York Times 07/15/2009
Jobs Report Highlights Shaky U.S. Recovery
New York Times 10/03/2009
It Will Be Years Before Lost Jobs Return -- and Many Never Will
Wall Street Journal 10/05/2009
BusinessWeek 10/09/2009
Why high unemployment in the U.S. is expected for 2010-2014
06/06/2009
Structural problems like a mismatch of skills between maufacturing and construction sectors worst hit since 2008 and growing sectors like healthcare is one problem. Geographic factors and difficulty selling homes in states like Michigan is another. The tighter credit from a return of banking sector losses from bad home equity loans that is expected in late 2010 will keep the recovery from taking hold keeping unemployment high. The economic uncertainty following repeated budget battles between political parties also affects business investment.
Grouped Articles
90 Million Americans Not Working
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2013
Hiring Slowdown Blurs Growth View
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2014
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
New York Times 04/05/2012
Hiring Is Strong and Jobless Rate Declines to 6.1%
New York Times 07/03/2014
U.S. unemployment and foreclosures- 2011-2012
05/04/2009
Grouped Articles
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
Wall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
The Case Against the Bernanke-Obama Financial Rescue
New York Times 05/16/2014
New York Times 05/19/2014
New York Times 05/04/2009
New York Times 06/02/2009
Why high unemployment and the high percentage of the long term unemployed is determining U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2012-2014
01/27/2009
With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
Grouped Articles
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
FX HORIZONS: The Fed’s Risky Codependency with Markets
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013
Economy May Be Getting Its Wings Clipped
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
Unemployment by state and region in the U.S. in 2010-2013
01/04/2010
Regional unemployment trends show high unemployment in the South and West in 2011. At the same time as a recovery takes shape in parts of the North, East and Midwestern states. Of the top four states with the highest unemployment, three were in the West and South- Nevada, California and S. Carolina. Of the top ten six are in the West and the South.
Grouped Articles
Perry criticizes government while Texas job growth benefits from it - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/21/2011
The Next First (and Only) 100 Days
New York Times 12/10/2011
Jobless Rate Up in Most States
Wall Street Journal 08/20/2013
Hiring Slowdown Blurs Growth View
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2014
Unrelenting Downturn Is Redrawing Americaâs Economic Map
New York Times 09/26/2011
Strong ADP Jobs Gain Needs Grain of Salt
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2012
Robert Shiller on unemployment and the failure of the U.S. Congressional Supercommittee in 2011.
01/04/2010
Grouped Articles
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
How to Fix the Economy: An Expert Panel
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
Long-Term Unemployment Carries Risks for U.S.
New York Times 11/26/2011
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/12/2011
The Great Divergence by Timothy Noah
New York Times 05/25/2012
Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2010
The employment to population ratio for U.S. unemployment- 2011-2014
06/06/2009
The serious problem of the large number of long term unemployed persons in the U.S., very different from under any previous recession.
Grouped Articles
90 Million Americans Not Working
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2013
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
New York Times 04/05/2012
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2014
Hiring Rises, but Number of Jobless Stays High
New York Times 04/04/2014
Structural solutions for U.S. jobs growth and economic growth- 2011-2020
01/04/2010
Michael Spence and other experts discuss longer term solutions to the high unemployment facing the U.S.
Grouped Articles
Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
Bayer: Pressure on Prices Has Bad Side Effects
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealth
Economist 10/06/2014
Why the Old Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Middle-Aged Job Hunters Struggle in Weak Recovery
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2011
Congressman DeFazio call for more attention to unemployment by the Obama administration.
11/19/2009
De Fazio says he is hearing a lot of things from his constituents that the Obama administration is paying 90% of its attention to Wall Street and only 10% to the problems of ordinary Americans losing jobs and homes.
Grouped Articles
Q&A: Oregon Democrat DeFazio Calls for Geithner’s Resignation
Wall Street Journal 11/19/2009
5.6 Million Reasons to Doubt Jobless Rate
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2009
New York Times 02/09/2010
Economist 04/29/2010
Mystery for the White House: Where did the Jobs Go?
New York Times 07/19/2010
What Happened to Change We Can Believe In?
New York Times 10/23/2010
Krugman on the Obama Administration, banks, settlements and the U.S. foreclosure crisis in 2011
01/02/2009
Failure of the Obama administration to reduce foreclosures and help homeowners. A worsening foreclosure situation leads to a continuing decline in housing prices and hampers an economic recovery in the U.S. This is something Martin Feldstein grasped very early during the 2008 financial crisis and made proposals for helping homeowners under water.
Grouped Articles
Washington Post 09/06/2011
Book portrays dysfunction in Obama White House - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/17/2011
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
Wall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Charlie Rose Talks to Robert Reich
BusinessWeek 10/21/2010
The next big economic crisis in USA : the situation in 2009 for commercial real estate loans.
11/19/2009
Why this will be harder for the American government to tackle and how it will end up slowing the economy in 2010 and beyond. Seee the links to Peter Eavis on the banking problems.
Grouped Articles
A Sector That Is Too Tough to Save
Wall Street Journal 11/19/2009
Wall Street Journal 11/19/2009
New York Times 01/03/2010
Beware the Crisis around the corner
Financial Times 01/04/2010
Divergent Views on Signs of Life in the Economy
New York Times 01/05/2010
New York Times 01/04/2010
Is this shaping up to be a lost decade for the U.S. economy?
10/18/2009
Grouped Articles
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
New York Times 10/30/2014
Eighty Years After the Great Crash -- 'Is It the '30s Again?'
Wall Street Journal 10/18/2009
U.S. Hears Echo of Japanâs Woes
New York Times 10/29/2010
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2011
John Taylor and other experts on the U.S. budget, deficits, and private investment for jobs
01/27/2009
Taylor asks why the U.S. cannot get by on a budget that is 20% of GDP, when this is what the budget was in 2007 and GDP is much larger today. He says private investment can do a better job reducing unemployment and creating a growing U.S. economy. Taylor provides advice on the Romney Plan.
Grouped Articles
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Obama's Permanent Spending Binge
Wall Street Journal 04/22/2011
Five Lessons for Deficit Busters
Wall Street Journal 06/20/2011
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2011
Charlie Rose Talks to Robert Rubin
BusinessWeek 08/04/2011
Washington Post 08/07/2011
The U.S. economy and difficult choices in 2012-2013 as seen in Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections
01/16/2009
The U.S. faces difficult choices in 2012-2013- efforts to close the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts expire and making spending reductions will lead to low growth. Not doing this will lead to growth with much higher deficits and unsustainable debt levels.
Grouped Articles
Four Deficit Myths and a Frightening Fact
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2012
CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
Unknown 02/05/2014
Budget Deficit Returns to Prerecession Levels
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
U.S. Racks Up Smallest Deficit Since 2007
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2015
U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Smallest in Nearly Seven Years
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2012
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's and Fed governor's assessment of the economy in 2011-2012
01/04/2010
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2011
Fed Darkens Its Outlook but Plans No Changes
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2011
The Federal Reserve's Toolbox is Emptying
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
Bernanke to Markets: Stay Tuned
Wall Street Journal 08/26/2011
Key Passages From Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Remarks
Wall Street Journal 08/26/2011
Wall Street Journal 09/28/2011
Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate for 2010-2016 and its implications for unemployment and economic growth
06/06/2009
Grouped Articles
Job Growth Eases Fears About Effect of Closing
New York Times 11/08/2013
Candid Criticism for Fed That Wasnât on the Agenda
New York Times 11/08/2013
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
New York Times 04/05/2012
Takeaways From the Monthly Jobs Report
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2014
High unemployment and declining wages in the U.S.: 2010-2012
01/01/2010
Grouped Articles
OECD report cites rising income inequality - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/06/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2013
No longer the land of opportunity - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/05/2012
Recovery Has Created Far More Low-Wage Jobs Than Better-Paid Ones
New York Times 04/27/2014
The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealth
Economist 10/06/2014
Falling Wages at Factories Squeeze the Middle Class
New York Times 11/20/2014
The nature of unemployment in this U.S. downturn as men, young people and the less educated are the worst hit groups.
03/11/2009
In this US downturn men are hit harder than women with job losses in manufacturing and construction, the less educated hit hardest, and young people also hit hard.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 06/22/2013
Wanted: Jobs for the New 'Lost' Generation
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2013
Women Reach a Milestone in Job Market
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2013
Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
BusinessWeek 07/01/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Whats the real U.S. unemployment rate in November 2011, 11% or less than 9%? Its 11%!
01/04/2010
U.S. government statistics don't count long term unemployed who have stopped looking for work. Ed Luce of the Financial Times, says the figure is about 11% for the U.S. in Nov. 2011, when you include these people, which is the right number to look at. Also relevant are the underemployed, including this group brings the rate closer to 20%, reflecting the real situation in the U.S.
Grouped Articles
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
It's Still Bad for the Long Term Unemployed
New York Times 04/04/2014
Yellen’s Not on Team Krueger When it Comes to Inflation and the Unemployed
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2014
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
Hiring Is Strong and Jobless Rate Declines to 6.1%
New York Times 07/03/2014
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/12/2011
High U.S. unemployment and the haphazard effort for jobs retraining in the U.S. - 2009-2013
06/06/2009
Grouped Articles
Jamie Dimon’s harried JPMorgan Chase pushes campaign for worker training - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/03/2014
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
Bayer: Pressure on Prices Has Bad Side Effects
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealth
Economist 10/06/2014
Unemployment and the U.S. presidential election of 2012
01/04/2010
Grouped Articles
Job Picture Set to Test Obama in Key States
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2011
Wall Street Journal 09/02/2011
The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States
Wall Street Journal 09/06/2011
Voter Discontent Deepens Ahead of Obama Jobs Plan
Wall Street Journal 09/06/2011
Debate on Economics Turns to Character
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2011
Democrats See Advantage in Payroll Tax Debate
New York Times 12/01/2011
Hassett and Baker on the importance of German style work sharing programs and training with government help to address U.S. unemployment
06/06/2009
"Kurzarbeit" and work sharing helped Germany deal with stubborn unemployment in the last decade and after the 2008 financial crisis. France is already looking at cooperation between industry, unions an government to reduce unemployment by adopting some of the actions taken in Germany.
Grouped Articles
Jamie Dimon’s harried JPMorgan Chase pushes campaign for worker training - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/03/2014
Bayer: Pressure on Prices Has Bad Side Effects
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
German-Style Training for American Factory Workers
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2014
French Attempt at German-Style Labor Reform Flounders
Wall Street Journal 12/05/2014
The Human Disaster of Unemployment
New York Times 05/12/2012
The job crisis for employment of men in the U.S.
03/14/2009
The participation rate in the job market for men between 16-64 is dropping over time. It was 85% in the 1950's and has dropped continually after each recession. It is now at 65%. More and more men simply drop out of the labor market after failing to find jobs, creating a disturbing trend for the country. This does not show up in improving unemployment statistics.
Grouped Articles
Job Growth Eases Fears About Effect of Closing
New York Times 11/08/2013
Candid Criticism for Fed That Wasnât on the Agenda
New York Times 11/08/2013
Women Reach a Milestone in Job Market
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2013
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Bayer: Pressure on Prices Has Bad Side Effects
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
John Taylor on U.S. Federal Reserve policies and booms and busts in the U.S. economy and no clear exit strategy
01/27/2009
Taylor points out that the dual mandate for maintaining unemployment and inflation goals has led to discretionary policies that have hurt the economy by leading to booms and busts. He calls for a single mandate on inflation goals. Taylor provides advice on the Romney Plan.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2012
S.&P. 500 Dips After Fed Signals No New Stimulus
New York Times 04/04/2012
Policy errors and lack of focus on unemployment and the economy of the Obama administration
04/04/2009
The focus on health care reform comes at the wrong time when when the U.S. economy and high unemployment were priorities that needed attention, say experts. Feldstein points elsewhere to the lack of attention to the housing crisis and reducing foreclosures through homeowner assistance. These errors of the Obama administration increased business uncertainty in the U.S. just as the eurozone crisis worsened.
Grouped Articles
Washington Post 09/06/2011
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Geithner's Bank Plan Is a Good Start
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2009
Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2010
Roseland, Where Obama the Politician Was Born
New York Times 08/15/2012
Washington Post 08/17/2012
President Obama's lack of focus on unemployment and the absence of any serious and largescale infrastructure building for the 21st century
10/01/2009
Grouped Articles
Obama's Infrastructure Plan: More Cash Could Hit the Road
BusinessWeek 09/08/2010
Voters’ Second Thoughts on Hope and Change
New York Times 11/04/2014
It Will Be Years Before Lost Jobs Return -- and Many Never Will
Wall Street Journal 10/05/2009
New York Times 10/06/2009
No Walk in the Park: For Obama One Year Later, It’s the Slog of Governance
New York Times 11/04/2009
Executives Express Caution About Hiring
Wall Street Journal 11/07/2009
Martin Feldstein and other experts renew their call to stem the decline in house prices with a new policy for homeowners under water - 2010-2012
01/05/2009
The cost would be an estimated $350 billion to cancel some of the mortgage debt of homeowners. Feldstein says this is a necessary step to revive the U.S economy. Letting the forest fire of foreclosures burn itself out would damage the U.S. economy further. Feldstein says this is not an option.
Grouped Articles
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
Wall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
The Case Against the Bernanke-Obama Financial Rescue
New York Times 05/16/2014
New York Times 05/19/2014
New York Times 05/04/2009
How to Stop the Drop in Home Values
New York Times 10/12/2011
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