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Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections.
Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009
04/21/2014
Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.
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