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Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
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Vanguard economists using the work of Stanford Unversity economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have developed their own estimates of the cost of overall uncertainty to the U.S. economy. Bloom, Baker and Davis show the level of overall uncertainty in 2011-2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard's estimates are for a drag on the U.S. economy of about $261 billion in deadweight losses from this uncertainty- uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in deficit reduction, uncertainty in business investment. Their estimates show 1 million jobs not created, job growth per month lower by 45,000 in the last 2 years, and gdp growth of about 3% per year in 2011 and 2012 in place of the 2% average recorded, in the absence of these uncertainty shocks experienced by the U.S. economy. McNabb points out that the market gains of the S&P 500 are based on an unstable foundation as long as this overall uncertainty is not lifted and create a serious disconnect.
Vanguard's Bill McNabb on the cost of uncertainty for the U.S. economy in lower GDP growth and higher unemployment- 2011-2014
04/28/2013
Vanguard economists estimate the cost of uncertainty in deficit reduction policy, uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in foreign policy, uncertainty for business investment, places a drag on the U.S. economy of $261 billion. Stanford University economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have done work showing the level of uncertainty in 2011-2012 continuing into 2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard economsts based their analysis and estimates on this work and identified specific events leading to the overall uncertainty. This has cost the U.S. economy about 1 million jobs, with job growth being 45,000 per month higher without this overall uncertainty hanging over the economy, according to Vanguard estimates.
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