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S.&P. 500 Dips After Fed Signals No New Stimulus
Keywords:
The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008.
John Taylor on U.S. Federal Reserve policies and booms and busts in the U.S. economy and no clear exit strategy
01/27/2009
Taylor points out that the dual mandate for maintaining unemployment and inflation goals has led to discretionary policies that have hurt the economy by leading to booms and busts. He calls for a single mandate on inflation goals. Taylor provides advice on the Romney Plan.
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FX HORIZONS: The Fed’s Risky Codependency with Markets
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Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
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U.S. Federal Reserve Bank policy emerging from the September 2011 FOMC meeting
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The Fed's policy according to Neil Irwin of the Washington Post, is to move in the direction of reducing the composition of its bond portfolio rather than printing new money for new bond purchases. That policy of printing money for bond purchases came under criticism from Republican presidential candidates and there were three dissenters at the last FOMC meeting. Mindful of this the Fed is now considering a policy called a "switch," of buying more long term bonds and reducing the short term bonds in its portfolio. This would reduce long term interest rates. The impact on the housing market of past and current moves is limited by the fact that the mortgage markets are not functioning properly, as a large proportion of homeowners are under water (owe more than their house is worth). The Fed's effort come under its mandate to keep unemployment in check in addition to inflation.
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‘Fragile Five’ Is the Latest Club of Emerging Nations in Turmoil
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Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
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Grouped Articles
A Hawkish Signal Bernanke Didn't Send
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Risks in the global financial system and warning by central bankers from the Bank for International Settlements in 2012
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Fresh Warnings on Money Policies
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High net worth investors in the U.S. are keeping only a small share of their holdings in the stock market.
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S.&P. 500 Dips After Fed Signals No New Stimulus
New York Times 04/04/2012
The "Melt Up" U.S. stock market rally of late 2009 and its prospects.
06/06/2009
Farzad of BW says economic fundamentals don't justify the rally so it could fizzle out at any time in 2010 or 2011.
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U.S. Data Offer an Uncertain Compass
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Grouped Articles
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U.S. stock market 2010-2014
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Grouped Articles
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U.S. stock, commodities and currency markets in mid 2011
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Grouped Articles
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Dismal Science Takes Dim View of Dow 'Record'
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Stock Bulls Look Past Rough Patch
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Wall Street Journal 05/02/2011
Could Japanâs Debt Lead to a Crisis?
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Stocks of IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Texas Instruments and other tech companies in the U.S. that have lagged behind in the recovery in stock market prices in 2011, and have lower price earnings ratios in the neighborhood of 10 compared to the long term price earnings ratio of 16.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Wall Street Journal 08/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
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Wall Street Journal 11/26/2013
Margin Cloud Casts Shadow Over Cisco
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U.S. Federal Reserve policies leading to boom and bust periods for the U.S. economy and the S&P near 1500 in March 2012
03/29/2012
During a 6 month period between October 2011 and March 2012 the S&P 500 moves from a low of 1037 on October 27, 2011, to 1420 in March 2012. This followed another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve following an earlier round in 2010.
Linked Articles
S.&P. 500 Dips After Fed Signals No New Stimulus
New York Times 04/04/2012
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2012
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