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In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
Keywords:
David Blanchford of Dartmouth College and Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute of International Economics argue in a recent paper that the true indicator of unemployment in this economy -with a low participation rate and millions dropping out of the labor market unable to find work- is the wage growth. This is particularly true with the U.S. Labor Department report of 288,000 new jobs in 2014 and a 6.3% unemployment rate, yet wages flat for March and April 2014, and no improvement in the participation rate. Blanchford says one should look at the wage growth and consider the rest to be noise. The Yellen Fed is looking closely at the participation rate.
Blanchflower and Posen call for the U.S. Federal Reserve to use wage growth as the best indicator of unemployment, after the misleading 288,000 jobs report of April 2014
06/06/2009
A renewed focus on the partcipation rate as the unemployment rate declines to 6.3% in April 2014. As this only counts people looking for work and many Americans have dropped out of the labor market because jobs they seek do not exist, the unemployment rate in this situation is misleading. Blanchford and Posen have written a paper on this and say the flat wage rate in March and April 2014 with no improvement in the participation rate provides a true picture of the large slack in the economy.
Grouped Articles
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
Little Agreement on Reasons for Declining Labor-Force Participation
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Jobs Data May Be Icing on America's Birthday Cake
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Janet Yellen's first meeting as chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve and press conference, March 18, 2014
03/19/2014
Yellen's emphasizes she will look at a broad range of indicators including inflation, jobless for over 6 months and parttime workers who want full time jobs, and fianncial market developments. The Fed continued to reduce its bond purchases- from $65 billion to $55 billion a month. The Fed said plans were to increase short term interest rates about 6 months after the bond purchases end in the fall of 2014, but to do so very gradually and in small increments. A majority of economists interpreted this to mean the Fed will not increase rates till 2015, especially considering the focus on broad indicators includes other aspects of the unemployment picture that are not included in the unemployment rate.
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Wall Street Journal 03/20/2014
Fed Cuts Bond Buying by Another $10 Billion
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In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
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Yellen Goes on Road to Investigate Health of the Jobs Market
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U-6 unemployment rate in the U.S. at 12.6% in March 2014
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Grouped Articles
It's Still Bad for the Long Term Unemployed
New York Times 04/04/2014
'Real Unemployment' Rate Points in the Wrong Direction
New York Times 04/04/2014
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
Little Agreement on Reasons for Declining Labor-Force Participation
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Positive Jobs Report Shows Economic Fault Lines
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Why high unemployment and the high percentage of the long term unemployed is determining U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2012-2014
01/27/2009
With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
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Whats the real U.S. unemployment rate in November 2011, 11% or less than 9%? Its 11%!
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U.S. government statistics don't count long term unemployed who have stopped looking for work. Ed Luce of the Financial Times, says the figure is about 11% for the U.S. in Nov. 2011, when you include these people, which is the right number to look at. Also relevant are the underemployed, including this group brings the rate closer to 20%, reflecting the real situation in the U.S.
Grouped Articles
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
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Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
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U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen's thinking on unemployment and expected Fed policy in 2014-2015
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Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Fed's Yellen Sets Course for Steady Bond-Buy Cuts
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Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate for 2010-2016 and its implications for unemployment and economic growth
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Grouped Articles
Job Growth Eases Fears About Effect of Closing
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U.S. Federal Reserve's 6.5% unemployment target with 2% inflation announced by Bernanke in Dec. 2012
01/27/2009
The U.S. Fed's chairman Bernanke says the Fed will keep rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5% citing "the tremendous waste in human potential" of high unemplyment rates. As long as inflation remains subdued at 2% the Fed will continue its current policy of low rates. In 2013 the Fed will continue bond buying at the rate of $85 billion a month. If unemployment drops to 6.5%, but this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market the Fed will take this into account, says Bernanke. The Fed will also keep an eye out for asset bubbles in the economy.
Grouped Articles
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
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Wall Street Journal 07/05/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
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Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
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U-6, the rate that reflects unemployment and part-time workers in the U.S. at 14.7% in Sept 2012
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Grouped Articles
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
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New York Times 04/05/2012
The incredible shrinking labor force - The Washington Post
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It's Still Bad for the Long Term Unemployed
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'Real Unemployment' Rate Points in the Wrong Direction
New York Times 04/04/2014
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
U.S. trade with China in 2000-2011 and the impact on cities and counties in the U.S.
09/25/2010
Three American researchers have completed a study on the impact of U.S. trade in the decade 2000-2011 with China, a period of exceptionally high growth of about 12% in China and a surge in imports into the U.S. The study shows counties in the 75th percentile in import levels experienced a surge in unemployment and government payments to support the unemployed. Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence points out this was an exceptional period and no theory in textbooks can account for the changes taking place because the growth rate in China was unprecedented.
Grouped Articles
Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade
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Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
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U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Surging Imports
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Campaign Season’s Anti-China Tone Is Likely to Cloud Meeting With Obama
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The employment to population ratio for U.S. unemployment- 2011-2014
06/06/2009
The serious problem of the large number of long term unemployed persons in the U.S., very different from under any previous recession.
Grouped Articles
90 Million Americans Not Working
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New York Times 04/05/2012
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2014
Hiring Rises, but Number of Jobless Stays High
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Unemployment in the U.S. for 1st quarter 2014
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Grouped Articles
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Takeaways From the Monthly Jobs Report
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2014
Wall Street Journal 04/05/2014
Hiring Rises, but Number of Jobless Stays High
New York Times 04/04/2014
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
The puzzling (and possibly disturbing) aspects of the April 2014 U.S. jobs numbers from the Labor Department
05/05/2014
Linked Articles
Positive Jobs Report Shows Economic Fault Lines
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
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