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CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 10 year projections on the U.S. economy in Jan. 2014
02/05/2014
Growth in GDP expected at 3% for 2014-2017, with low inflation at 2%, budget deficit at 3% increasing to 4% in years after 2015, and government debt to GDP increasing from 74% in 2014 to 79% by 2024. A liitle over $1 trillion in additional debt will be added by 2024 as a result of an aging population, lower number of people working, lower growth rates after 2015, and the increasing cost of health care.
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The U.S. faces difficult choices in 2012-2013- efforts to close the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts expire and making spending reductions will lead to low growth. Not doing this will lead to growth with much higher deficits and unsustainable debt levels.
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U.S. Racks Up Smallest Deficit Since 2007
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U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Smallest in Nearly Seven Years
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Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
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How the U.S. went from a CBO surplus projection of $2.3 trillion for 2011 to a deficit figure $12.7 trillion below that estimate
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The U.S. debt, short term financing, interest rates and future tax increases- implications of current policy
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The implications of a loose monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve and about 52% of debt being of short term maturities of less than 3 years at low interest rates- an average of 2.24% on U.S. Treasury debt of over $11 trillion in Jan. 2012. If interest rates were to rise in 2014-2017 as predicted by the CBO, interest rates of 5-6% could mean significantly higher interest payments on the debt- doubling or tripling current interest payments on debt of $225 billion- and calls for tax increases such as the value addded taxes in Europe.
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CBO projections in Jan 2014 show the U.S. debt stabilizing at 74% of GDP in 2014 and deficits below 3% for 2014-2017
12/16/2012
Higher economic growth of about 3% for 2014-2017 and the phasing out of spending to counter the effects of the severe recession of 2008-2010, have helped the U.S. stabilize debt levels and reduce deficits. After 2018 the long range projections show debt to GDP climbing to reach 79% in 2024.
Linked Articles
CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
Unknown 02/05/2014
New York Times 12/16/2012
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