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Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
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The growth in U.S. GDP was 1.7 % in 2011, yet unemployment dropped by 0.7% in the last 12 months to 8.3% by Feb. 2012. A pickup in hiring is seen in job figures. Christina Romer gives as an explanation to the rise in unemployment in 2009 to 10%, more than expected, and the drop since then, to the overreaction of companies to the financial crisis by laying off workers and freezing hiring- with hiring picking up as conditions return to normal levels. The unemployment rate as defined is also not an accurate measure of the jobs situation, as it reflects only workers who are looking for work, and many workers drop out of the jobs market when they are discouraged especially the long term unemployed. Taking into account people who have dropped out of the labor markets the unemployment rate was 11% in Nov. 2009, according to Luce in the Financial Times- in Ezra Klein, Washington Post 12/12/2011, Wonkbook: Real unemployment rate 11%. Lawrence Katz, Harvard Labor economist also cites this as one of three jobs crises in unemployment today that need to be addressed, the other two being: foreclosures and debt, and the low number of jobs added because of automated manufacturing- in Friedman, NYT, 12/10/11, The Next First 100 Days. Explanations for the low GDP growth as unemployment declines is a likely productivity slowdown. Prof. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, sees a slowdown in productivity. Worker output for every hour worked, how productivity is measured, increased only 0.4% in 2011 and 0.9% in the last 7 quarters, and is trending downward in the longer term. A more likely explanation is that unemployment is still at higher levels but is understated in unemployment figures.
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Whats the real U.S. unemployment rate in November 2011, 11% or less than 9%? Its 11%!
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U.S. government statistics don't count long term unemployed who have stopped looking for work. Ed Luce of the Financial Times, says the figure is about 11% for the U.S. in Nov. 2011, when you include these people, which is the right number to look at. Also relevant are the underemployed, including this group brings the rate closer to 20%, reflecting the real situation in the U.S.
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JOLTS and COnference Board job openings figures shows 3 million job openings in February 2009, with mismatch in qualifications of candidates from industries losing jobs (finance, retail, construction) and industries gaining jobs (health care, education, government, accounting). Is the US market becoming less mobile?
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Texas leads in job generation, followed by New York and Pennsylvania.
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Unemployment by state and region in the U.S. in 2010-2013
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Regional unemployment trends show high unemployment in the South and West in 2011. At the same time as a recovery takes shape in parts of the North, East and Midwestern states. Of the top four states with the highest unemployment, three were in the West and South- Nevada, California and S. Carolina. Of the top ten six are in the West and the South.
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Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz says the long term unemployed who are dropping out of the labor market represent one of three job crises facing America. The other two are the effects of manufacturing automation reducing demand for workers in new plants, and the effects of foreclosures and debt.
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The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (2)- 2011-2013
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Ezra Klein points out that the real unemployment rate in November 2011 was 11%- when taking into account the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market- not about 9%.
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Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
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