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Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke tells the House Financial Services Committee hearings that the Fed will give importance to underemployment, not just the unemployment rate, in making decisions about bond purchases. The unemployment rate could be a false indicator of the labor market if the rate falls below the Fed's goal of 6.5% before raising interest rates, and yet labor markets are still weak because of underemployment. Bernanke said: "There are a number of problems with the labor market. Unemployment is one problem, but long term unemployment and underemployment- and by 'underemployment,' I mean people either who are working fewer hours than they would like or possibly working at jobs well below their skill level- is also indicative of a weak labor market." In this situation of high underemployment combined with low inflation the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates when the unemployment rate reach 6.5%. In Bernanke's words: Reaching 6.5% unemployment "would not automatically result in an increase in the federal funds rate target." Since 2010 financial markets in the U.S., and to a lesser extent worldwide, have looked to U.S. Fed policy for raising interest rates, as guidance on the degree of support for the economy and by extension for markets.

U.S. Federal Reserve's 6.5% unemployment target with 2% inflation announced by Bernanke in Dec. 2012

01/27/2009

The U.S. Fed's chairman Bernanke says the Fed will keep rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5% citing "the tremendous waste in human potential" of high unemplyment rates. As long as inflation remains subdued at 2% the Fed will continue its current policy of low rates. In 2013 the Fed will continue bond buying at the rate of $85 billion a month. If unemployment drops to 6.5%, but this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market the Fed will take this into account, says Bernanke. The Fed will also keep an eye out for asset bubbles in the economy.

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