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Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices.
How the U.S. went from a CBO surplus projection of $2.3 trillion for 2011 to a deficit figure $12.7 trillion below that estimate
01/16/2009
The CBO projection was made in 2001 and showed a surplus of $2.3 trillion for 2011. Two wars, higher defense spending added about $2 trillion. The Stimulus about $700 billion. Figures from the analysis done by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative using CBO numbers.
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The U.S. economy and difficult choices in 2012-2013 as seen in Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections
01/16/2009
The U.S. faces difficult choices in 2012-2013- efforts to close the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts expire and making spending reductions will lead to low growth. Not doing this will lead to growth with much higher deficits and unsustainable debt levels.
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Growing Risks for the U.S. Economy in 2010-2012.
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Risks of another hit from losses on home equity loans to bank balance sheets in latter part of 2010. The situation with local and state governments in the USA cutting back significantly. The situation in Europe and an overheating Chinese economy.
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The Home-Equity Hurt Ahead for Banks
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Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
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Kicking the Can Down the Road- Views on the 2010 Obama-Republican Bush tax cuts deal
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Selling the Bush tax cuts in the U.S. and opposition in the Democratic party in 2010
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Former President Clinton helps to sell the Bush tax cuts in 2010. This is an effort to salvage the agreement President Obama negotiated with the Republicans.
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Deficit discussions in the U.S. and revenue from taxes- 2011-2012
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Negotiations between the White House, Democrats and Republicans, to achieve major reductions and cuts in spending, and increase tax revenues by reducing tax expenditures. The discussions for an action plan on the U.S. budget deficit have reached an impasse with Republicans opposed to any tax increases.
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The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and estimates of the U.S. Budget Deficit
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Experts evaluate the impact of the Debt Ceiling Deal of August 2, 2011 on the U.S. economy
07/14/2011
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers and other experts evaluate the impact of the debt ceiling deal. The deal requires the setting up of a debt panel to come up with additional savings.
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Moving forward after the debt deal - The Washington Post
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The Balanced Budget Amendment in the U.S. Congress in August 2011
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Critics say the balanced budget amendment would prevent the use of countercyclical policies in a downturn like the present one facing the U.S. economy. Because of the tendency of politicians to avoid difficult decisions and "kick the can down the road," it serves to focus attention on making the cuts in spending, including tax expenditures, that can help reduce the deficit to sustainable levels.
Grouped Articles
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Why a balanced-budget amendment is too risky - The Washington Post
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For Republican Freshmen, the Power of No
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U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's and Fed governor's assessment of the economy in 2011-2012
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Opposition to the Bush tax cuts deal between President Obama and Republicans
08/05/2010
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The Wisdom and Folly of the Bush Tax Cuts
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House Democrats seek changes to Obama's tax-cut deal
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Dana Milbank - The Democrats' short-lived rebellion
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New York Times 12/10/2010
New York Times 12/09/2010
Poll on tax deal hints Obama still hasn't sold public
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The Bush tax cuts in 2010.
08/05/2010
In the face of rising deficits, and questions about the future solvency of Medicare and Social Security, there are questions about the Bush tax cuts which expire in December 2010 if not renewed. With high unemployment the consensus seems to be to leave the tax cuts in place for a limited period, and have serious conversation about taxes when a new presidential term begins. A Value added Tax has been suggested by Paul Volcker, similar to that in Europe.
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The Wisdom and Folly of the Bush Tax Cuts
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New York Times 12/02/2010
The "cut, cap and balance" pledge of Republican candidates for the 2012 presidential election
07/18/2011
The pledge is supported by candidates, Romney, Bachmann, Pawlenty, Perry and others. It requires an immediate reduction in spending, capping it as a percentage of GDP, and balancing the budget. The House version calls for capping spending at 19.9% by 2018.
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GOP Hopefuls Betting Voters Want Deep Cuts
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Perry criticizes government while Texas job growth benefits from it - The Washington Post
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Governor for sale - The Washington Post
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections of difficult choices and tradeoffs between higher 2013 unemployment or higher deficit facing the U.S.
02/01/2012
Linked Articles
'Fiscal Cliff' Has Many Perils
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2012
Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2012
How the U.S. debt and deficit problems emerged- turning a surplus in one decade into rising deficts in the next
08/07/2011
Linked Articles
Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2012
Washington Post 08/07/2011
Congressional Budget Office projections and difficult choices facing the U.S. in 2012-2013
08/25/2011
Linked Articles
Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2012
Forecast Clouds Debt-Cut Outlook
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2011
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