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Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009.
Robert Shiller and "winter on the family farm" as a metaphor in tough economic times instead of "tightening the family belt"
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Shiller cites the "balanced budget theorem" of Salant and the economist Paul Samuelson during the FDR period. This showed that with taxes and expenditures going up during tough economic times the higher output leads to national income increasing by the amount of the tax. French president Hollande's plan to hire 60,000 teachers is of this kind, says shiller, because the higher taxes on incomes over 1 million euros supporting the hiring would increase national income by that amount.
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A delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve to withdraw support that puts a dark cloud over the economy..
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Incrementally withdrawing support where and when possible will be a tough act for the Fed, after the Fed has committed $1 trillion so far as support to debt securtization markets that breathe life into the USA economy. Shiller says these markets are dead, we are stuck, and no one knows what will happen if they are hobbled for corporate real estate, mortgages, auto loans.
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Nouriel Roubini, the man the European Central Bank calls to know whats around the next corner.
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Nouriel Roubini, global nomad, thinking in ways outside of the ordinary and outside of the typical in the economics profession, studied under Jeffrey Sachs and worked with Shiller at Yale. He has his own blog and since 2005 has predicted just the kind of crisis in the economy we are facing.
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Its the hearts and minds of the people that are the thing takes makes an economy or country tick not just use or overuse in recent years of financial incentives. Shiller and other economists make this point.
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Experts like Shiller and Roubini about see dangers of a double dip recession.
05/13/2010
Prolonged period of zero interest rates that encourage excessive risktaking, and declining confidence levels with higher uncertainty, pose serious dangers.
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
El-Erian's sees further problems from Europe and the overleveraged investor in the USA.
05/14/2010
Shiker and El-Erian's views on the risks to gorwth.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
Shiller sees risks of a double dip recession from sudden events that further damage confidence.
01/31/2010
Shillers definition of adoubel dip recession is one in which unemployment stays stubbornly high for some years and a second recession occurs before a recovery is achieved from the first one. Statistical models and confidence indexes are poor at grasping and presenting this.
Linked Articles
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
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The increasing risk of a Double Dip Recession.
05/14/2010
Shiller, Wood and other experts on the risks.
Linked Articles
Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
Shiller, Charles Scwab and other experts on the nervousness of the individual investor.
05/14/2010
Charles Schwab says about 98% of individual investos are nervous in mid 2010. He questios whether safety an soundess mean anything anymore. Shillers Buy on Dips Index confirms Schwab's observations.
Linked Articles
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
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