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What the New GOP Means for Wall Street

WSJ Original article ›
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There are similarities in the Republican and Democratic party platforms in 2016. One area of agreement is in the reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act. That legislation made in the Depression period to separate commercial banking from investment banking was changed  when president Clinton made changes in a deal with Senators Phil Gramm and Jim Leach in 1999. The too big to fail problems of banks and the problems of investment banks during the 2008 financial crisis are attributed to the lack of Glass Steagall protections for financial stability and safety. The result is that in the post 2016 environment banks can expect a tougher regulatory environment. Another are is in trade where both parties are expected to take tougher positions to protect U.S. interests. The Republican platform calls for "better negotiated trade agreemets that put America first."


Paul Ryan and the Republican party platform in 2012

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Parties’ Divide on the Economy Widens

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Rebublican 2016 presidential candidate Donald Trump and the core support from the white working class, many 55-64 years without a high school education

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A PRRI and Brookings Institution survey shows 55% of Donald Trump's support comes from the white working class who see immigrants in a negative light and are critical of large corporate interests. This group also sees political correctness as being a problem.

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The unimaginative and overly ideological solutions for renewing America of the Republicans and the Democrats in 2011-2014

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Views that say the best ideas from all sides of the political spectrum are a better way for renewing America than an unimaginative purely ideological way of thinking. This polarized mood has characterized both political parties in the U.S. Partisan politics and lack of moderate positions or policies in both parties.

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The 2016 Republican and Democratic party platforms that call for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act and changes in trade negotiations to put America first

07/20/2016

The Republican platform for 2016 is very different than the 2012 platform. The word deficit when it occurs is for trade deficit not fiscal deficit. Under both parties tougher regulation for banks with memories of the 2008 crisis and how it hurt ordinary Americans, The same for trade and the way it has hurt Americans in manufacturing- new trade negotiations will be tougher, companies in the domestic market will have better terms and exporters will face tougher environment overseas.

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What the New GOP Means for Wall Street

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On Eve of G.O.P. Convention, Law and Order Takes the Floor

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2014 trade talks between the U.S., Canada and Mexico

02/19/2014

Discussion topics between Obama, Harper and Nieto in Toluca, Mexico, include Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), Keystone pipeline, immigration and trade issues.

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'Three Amigos' Outline Trade Goals at Talks

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Transcript: Obama’s immigration speech - The Washington Post

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Obama Threatens to Veto Keystone Pipeline Approval

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Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement- winners and losers

04/07/2011

A study by Prof. Petri of Brandeis University, shows economic output going up by 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion for the U.S. as a result of the TPP agreement. Biologic drugs, with long term patent protection, software engineering services, high tech industry are the winners, losers are the Detroit auto industry facing higher imports, light manufacturing in textiles and paper, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Douglas Irwin of Datmouth and other experts say it is not clear how much of the benefit will affect consumers and businesses in the U.S. Most of the tariff cut gains are already made and import duties as a percentage of total imports are down to 1.4% today. Experts say 4/5th of the benefits for the U.S. are not from tariff cuts but from new rules for trade in services, and new rules for investment and commerce. The agreement brings together Pacific area countries, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Agriculture is protected in Canada especially in Quebec, and in Japan, which means tough negotiations to open up this sector. Politically the TPP is a response by the U.S. and Japan to the Infrastructure Investment Bank set up by China with support from Europe and India.

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Pacific Trade Deal Likely to Have Narrow Reach

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U.S. Congressional opposition to giving trade promotion authority to president Obama, and fast track for TPP, other free trade pacts

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Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic Discord

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A Lift for Free Trade

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Deal Reached on Fast-Track Authority for Obama on Trade Accord

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Obama Tries Tough Sale of TPP Trade Deal to Fellow Democrats

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The need for a strong and growing manufacturing base in the U.S. is one key realization for business leaders from the heads of Boeing, Intel and GE, and other business leaders to leaders in government. Failure to do this simply breeds a sense of pessimism about the future and creates an economy that leaves many productive people jobless, creates unsustainable trade deficits and foreign borrowing. Jeffrey Immelt says this in an op-ed piece in the Washington Post on the day he is appointed to head the President's Council on Jobs.

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The White Underclass

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U.S. workers and trade unions

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Public-Worker Unions Steel for Budget Fights

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NAFTA, Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, and free trade- shifting sentiment of the working class in America against trade that leads to loss of manufacturing jobs

03/09/2016

The sentiment against loss of manufacturing jobs as a result of trade agreements and free trade is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, which have seen the loss of manufacturing jobs hurt their economy. Especially hurt are younger less educated workers who see their job prospects diminish and wages drop. Bernie Sanders narrowly won the Michigan primary against Hillary Clinton by bringing up this issue in a barrage of ads.

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American public opinion on China, jobs and U.S.-China trade.

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US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick

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Donald Trump's campaign strategies and the effects of globalization and free trade marginalizing vulnerable less educated workers

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Experts in Germany and the U.S. look at support for right wing parties and fringe movements in 2015 for areas adversely affected by cheap imports.

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A big hint about why so many people support Donald Trump might come from Germany - The Washington Post

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U.S. and China- Trade Wars.

12/30/2009

American action against products from China that are dumped on the U.S. market. The unervalued Chinese currency and subsidized exports.

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The Obama-Romney Tariff

Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011

Export or die.

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Europe’s Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China

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An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember

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US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick

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The conflicting objectives of Japan and Mexico, Canada, UAW and the U.S., relating to auto parts and components during negotiations for the TPP

09/04/2015

Japan uses China and Thailand as part of its supply chain. Mexico has made gains under NAFTA it does not want to lose with large imports of cheap Chinese auto parts. The U.S. auto industry is somewhere in the middle and the UAW trade union wants to preserve American jobs. The different interests of Canada, Mexico, Japan and the U.S. make it harger to negotiate aspects of the ATT related to the auto industry. The auto industry in the U.S. is not a significant beneficiary from passing of the TPP.

Grouped Articles

Auto-Parts Dispute Taps the Brakes on Pacific Trade Deal

Wall Street Journal 09/04/2015

McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post

Washington Post 12/11/2015

Ford to More Than Double Mexico Production Capacity in 2018

Wall Street Journal 02/08/2016

After Michigan Loss, Hillary Clinton Sharpens Message on Jobs and Trade

New York Times 03/09/2016

Donald Trump Lays Out Protectionist Views in Trade Speech

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What the New GOP Means for Wall Street

WSJ 07/19/2016


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