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Our Fiscal Policy Paradox
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Alan Blinder points out that the political partisanship that has emerged in 2010 has not served America well, as it has deprived the government of the fiscal policy tools, which would be more effective than the Fed's only mildly effective tool of buying $100 billion a month of medium and long term Treasury debt. The country he says is tied up in partisan knots that prevents the use of the fiscal policy tools, and leaves the Fed with the choice of doing something only nudging the rates on government and private securites a bit (by 30 basis points for Treasury debt and 15 basis points for private securities as an example, not enough for more than a mild impact on corporate spending). The fiscal policy tools are he says of a wide variety and pack a lot more power, and he cites three as examples: offering significant lasting tax breaks for job creation, large enough to produce results (larger and long term than the HIRE program), government hiring directly onto public payrolls and government paying local and state governments for hiring at the local levels, the government offering to compensate states for a cut in the sales tax for a year to stimulate consumer spending. Would'nt this raise the deficit though? Blinder points out that the deficit problem lies in the future. Right now there is so much slack in the economy, that public spending will not crowd out private spending. And with Treasury rates at an all time low, Treasury can finance the larger deficit in the short term. A depreciation of the dollar or inflation, he says, is not a worry, because now there is worry about deflation, and the USA needs a lower dollar to push exports up and rebalance its economy. This does not slight the deficit issue and the culture of poor budgeting among both parties, as Reagan Budget Director David Stockman pointed out in an op-ed piece, but accomodates the real dangers and opportunities of difficult policy choices. This is why he laments the advertising campaign and public relations campaign against the 2009 stimulus bill, and the expected paralysis of fiscal policy from the extremely partisan 2010 midterm elections, and public opinion consumed by fear of deficits. Leaving the Fed with the unenviable choice of using only mildly effective tools. Other experts and columnists mention the risks associated with the Fed's large scale purchase of securities, if this leads to another asset bubble and subsequent collapse, and another bailout needed for financial institutions. Peter Eavis in one column in the WSJ points to the lack of effectiveness of the first round of quantitative easing of $1.7 trillion. And Kelly Evans, in the WSJ, points to the risks of "bad" inflation, if another round of quantitative easing by the Fed leads to increases in the price of commodities such as oil and food (such inflation falling heaviest on lower income households).The US Financial Regulatory Reform bill has received low grades, and recent standards for reserve capital in worldwide banking reforms are stretched out over a long period, leaving fragility in the economic system, if something were to go wrong.
Calls for organizing U.S. public opinion for problem solving outside of the polarized and interest-group captive debate of both parties
10/25/2010
Expert opinion on the failure of Republicans and Democrats to do serious problem-solving because of the tendency to see and do everything for political and electoral advantage. Both parties beholden to interest groups reduce their ability for serious action for problem solving. Partisan positions in both parties and lack of moderate positions or policies.
Grouped Articles
Budget Discord Simmers Among Democrats
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2013
Robert J. Samuelson - The dysfunction of American politics
Washington Post 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
The Two Parties Aren’t Crazy, Just Changed
Wall Street Journal 10/13/2015
Why we need a third party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/26/2011
Washington Post 11/13/2011
Alan Blinder on "job killing" spending, QE, and deficits
10/25/2010
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Tom Keene Talks to Alan Blinder
BusinessWeek 10/28/2010
The GOP Myth of 'Job-Killing' Spending
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Wall Street Journal 09/28/2011
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/01/2012
Low interest rates and Fed policy in 2010-2012
10/02/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 10/16/2014
Enough With the Low Interest Rates!
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2010
Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
The U.S. Federal Reserve and QE II.
08/12/2010
Problems with another round of quantitative easing, with Fed bond buying efforts to generate a jobs recovery.
Grouped Articles
How QE 2 Could Drift Off Course
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/18/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
America's economy: Not by monetary policy alone
Economist 10/28/2010
Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2010
The bailout and the Federal Reserve's infusion of cheap money are having unintended effects.
01/20/2009
One impact is that a few securties firms are making large profits even as the smaller banks are failing, banks like Citigroup and Bank of America are suffering losses, and the banks that were "too big to fail" are actually becoming larger. The Fed's infusion of money is not helping small and medium sized businesses with credit, as the smaller banks that lend to these businesses -as Ms. Lee points out- are not getting credit and are laying off people. This is setting off a vicious cycle of shrinking employment and shriking consumer demand.
Grouped Articles
How the Fed Can Avoid the Next Bubble
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2009
Recession Spells End for Many Family Businesses
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2009
Taking the National Debt Seriously
Wall Street Journal 10/12/2009
Steven Pearlstein - Don't Reinflate the Old Bubbles
Washington Post 10/14/2009
Financial-Services Regulation Fuels Tiff
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2009
That Promised Financial Reform
New York Times 10/14/2009
Quantitiative easing, the Federal Reserve creating money to buy government bonds, is creating surplus dollars and pounds.
09/24/2009
QE is likely to continue as the central banks of the USA and U.K. have no easy exit strategies.
Grouped Articles
Economist 09/24/2009
How the Fed Can Avoid the Next Bubble
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2009
The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2009
The Banking System Is Still Broken
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2009
What Happens If the Dollar Crashes
BusinessWeek 10/14/2009
Economist 10/26/2009
The unimaginative and overly ideological solutions for renewing America of the Republicans and the Democrats in 2011-2014
10/25/2010
Views that say the best ideas from all sides of the political spectrum are a better way for renewing America than an unimaginative purely ideological way of thinking. This polarized mood has characterized both political parties in the U.S. Partisan politics and lack of moderate positions or policies in both parties.
Grouped Articles
Why we need a third party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/26/2011
Robert J. Samuelson - The dysfunction of American politics
Washington Post 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
The Two Parties Aren’t Crazy, Just Changed
Wall Street Journal 10/13/2015
Washington Post 02/25/2016
New York Times 06/13/2011
Alan Blinder on the economy and Federal Reserve policy- 2011-2013
10/25/2010
Grouped Articles
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Tom Keene Talks to Alan Blinder
BusinessWeek 10/28/2010
Wall Street Journal 08/17/2011
Wall Street Journal 09/28/2011
Bernanke's Imprint on Fed Not Easily Erased
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2012
U.S. Federal Reserve's policy and actions in 2010-2013
08/27/2010
Grouped Articles
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013
In Surprise, Fed Decides to Maintain Pace of Stimulus
New York Times 09/18/2013
Economists See Nominee as Slightly More Dovish Bernanke
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2013
Yellenâs Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs
New York Times 10/09/2013
The Yellen Fed? Precise and Predictable
New York Times 10/09/2013
The risks of the Federal Reserve's reinflation policy in 2010-2014
10/11/2010
A rise in commodities prices is one serious risk, leaving consumers drowning in the reinflation.
Grouped Articles
Inflation Below Fed Target for 22nd Month in a Row
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2014
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
Fed Must Consider the World and All U.S. Employment
Wall Street Journal 04/09/2015
Fed's Reflation Bet Could Hit Consumers Before It Helps
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Criticism of Bernanke's role at the Federal Reserve
01/02/2009
The difficult renomination and the subsequent 70-30 vote with 30 Senators opposed including Boxer, Feingold, Sanders and others. This follows Ron Paul's criticisms in Congress of the Fed's role- see that link group.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Fed Chairmanâs Departure Casts a New Light on the Bush Legacy
New York Times 07/26/2013
Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed
New York Times 08/20/2013
Wall Street Journal 09/15/2013
What's Needed in the Next Fed Chief
New York Times 09/15/2013
Criticism and reservations about the Fed's second round of quantitative easing.
10/25/2010
The likelihood that the US Federal Reserve's move to buy an estimated $750 billion of Treasury bonds will be ineffective in the absence ofiscal policy options.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
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