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McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post
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U.S. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell tells the Washington Post in an exclusive interview that the dynamics surrounding the Trans Pacific Agreement pushed by president Obama have changed. He sees little prospect of it passing Congress before president Obama leaves office, and says it will be up to the next president to take it up after Obama leaves office in Jan. 2017. McConnell said that there is a lot of pushback all over the place. The Republican frontrunners Trump and Cruz both oppose the TPP, and all Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton oppose it. In addition tobacco interests in McConnell's home state of Kentucky and pharmaceutical interests backing Senator Orrin Hatch, the Republican Finance chairman also oppose aspects of the negotiated deal. Labor unions, the automobile industry, environmental groups, and public interest groups, have strongly opposed provisions of the TPP that hurt workers and the public interest from the beginning, making it a risky proposition for Congressmen coming up for reelection in 2016. The divergence between the Republican establishment and the presidential front runners Trump and Cruz also have diluted support in Congress on the Republican side, making it a no win proposition.
Changes to TPP and fast track trade legislation by the Obama administration to accomodate critics
05/24/2015
Grouped Articles
Obama Presses Currency Compromise in Trade Pact
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Senate Passes Fast-Track Trade Legislation
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Pelosi Rejects Appeals, Hands Obama a Trade Defeat
Wall Street Journal 06/13/2015
House Rejects Trade Measure, Rebuffing Obama’s Dramatic Appeal
New York Times 06/12/2015
Senate Clears Trade Bill’s Way to Passage
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2015
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Works Globally to Fight Antismoking Measures
New York Times 06/30/2015
Issues raised in Letters to the Editor of the NYT and the WSJ on the Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Pact (TPP)
02/27/2014
The issues raised cover worker protections, and also include some that are not frequently mentioned. Including the right granted to large corporations in TPP to sue the U.S. and other governments on issues where the governments have acted in the public interest as it relates to the environment, health, safeguards related to poor industry practices. A letter to WSJ says president Obama is doing this to look like a centrist president for his legacy, and not for free trade. Separately Krugman points to the issue of intellectual property rights enforcement that has the potential of making it harder to provide access to modern medicine to people in developing countries, a serious pitfall. Response to criticism by the Obama administration has generally talked about the merits of free trade which are generally accepted, and not the specific provisions, or the context in which most of the gains in free trade have already been made in the seven decades to 2015 and the remaining gains are much smaller coming with some losses. The global economy now benefits more from investments in infrastructure both in developing and advanced economies, which is why China's Infrastructure Investment Bank has received such wide support, including EU countries and India. The Obama administration has failed to make the case for investment in infrastructure to the American public, at a time when large productivity gains can be made here following about 2 decades of neglect. A similiar situation exists in Germany, and is especially true of Latin American countries which have serious infrastructure problems that reduce economic growth.
Grouped Articles
In the Heat of the Pacific Trade Battle
New York Times 05/22/2015
New York Times 05/22/2015
New York Times 02/27/2014
No Obama Tears for TPA or the TPP
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2015
Obama Presses Currency Compromise in Trade Pact
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Pelosi Rejects Appeals, Hands Obama a Trade Defeat
Wall Street Journal 06/13/2015
U.S. Congressional opposition to giving trade promotion authority to president Obama, and fast track for TPP, other free trade pacts
02/26/2015
Grouped Articles
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic Discord
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Deal Reached on Fast-Track Authority for Obama on Trade Accord
New York Times 04/16/2015
Obama Tries Tough Sale of TPP Trade Deal to Fellow Democrats
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2015
Obama Promotes Benefits of Trade Deals to Workers and Smaller Businesses
New York Times 02/26/2015
The conflicting objectives of Japan and Mexico, Canada, UAW and the U.S., relating to auto parts and components during negotiations for the TPP
09/04/2015
Japan uses China and Thailand as part of its supply chain. Mexico has made gains under NAFTA it does not want to lose with large imports of cheap Chinese auto parts. The U.S. auto industry is somewhere in the middle and the UAW trade union wants to preserve American jobs. The different interests of Canada, Mexico, Japan and the U.S. make it harger to negotiate aspects of the ATT related to the auto industry. The auto industry in the U.S. is not a significant beneficiary from passing of the TPP.
Grouped Articles
Auto-Parts Dispute Taps the Brakes on Pacific Trade Deal
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2015
McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/11/2015
Ford to More Than Double Mexico Production Capacity in 2018
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2016
After Michigan Loss, Hillary Clinton Sharpens Message on Jobs and Trade
New York Times 03/09/2016
Donald Trump Lays Out Protectionist Views in Trade Speech
WSJ 06/28/2016
What the New GOP Means for Wall Street
WSJ 07/19/2016
How teachers, firefighters and service workers union joined the opposition to the TPP and granting fast track trade authority in 2015, and why
06/12/2015
Firefighters and other service workers unions actively campaigned against the trade bills in Congress for the first time in 2015. The public sector unions now see how the closing of American factories, the decline in neighborhoods near plants, affects the demand for public services and the ability of cities and municipalities to pay for the public services. The decline in wages for industrial workers creates a negative perception for the higher wages in the public sector, reducing support from struggling industrial workers. The drastic drop in factory wages with globalization and the shrinking revenues of cities as incomes decline, is leading to a realization in labor that workers are affected in many ways by seemingly unrelated developments in trade and globalization. Another development is the expert information that shows the need for investment in infrastructure in the poorer countries of Latin America, and in the U.S., which would provide significant benefits. The benefits from trade tariff reduction are now small, as most of the benefits were achieved through earlier action in trade.
Grouped Articles
Labor’s Might Seen in Failure of Trade Deal as Unions Allied to Thwart It
New York Times 06/13/2015
Washington Dysfunction, With a Twist: Democrats Desert Their President
New York Times 06/12/2015
Unions Declare Partial Victory Against Obama’s Pacific Trade Deal
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2015
Washington Post 10/23/2015
McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/11/2015
Trans-Pacific Trade Pact Would Lift U.S. Incomes, but Not Jobs Overall, Study Says
New York Times 01/25/2016
Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement- winners and losers
04/07/2011
A study by Prof. Petri of Brandeis University, shows economic output going up by 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion for the U.S. as a result of the TPP agreement. Biologic drugs, with long term patent protection, software engineering services, high tech industry are the winners, losers are the Detroit auto industry facing higher imports, light manufacturing in textiles and paper, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Douglas Irwin of Datmouth and other experts say it is not clear how much of the benefit will affect consumers and businesses in the U.S. Most of the tariff cut gains are already made and import duties as a percentage of total imports are down to 1.4% today. Experts say 4/5th of the benefits for the U.S. are not from tariff cuts but from new rules for trade in services, and new rules for investment and commerce. The agreement brings together Pacific area countries, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Agriculture is protected in Canada especially in Quebec, and in Japan, which means tough negotiations to open up this sector. Politically the TPP is a response by the U.S. and Japan to the Infrastructure Investment Bank set up by China with support from Europe and India.
Grouped Articles
Pacific Trade Deal Likely to Have Narrow Reach
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2015
Auto-Parts Dispute Taps the Brakes on Pacific Trade Deal
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2015
Why You May Soon See More Goods Labeled ‘Made in Vietnam’
Wall Street Journal 10/19/2015
Utah Senator, Crucial Ally for the Pacific Rim Trade Deal, Is Now Its Main Hurdle
New York Times 11/12/2015
McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/11/2015
Trans-Pacific Trade Pact Would Lift U.S. Incomes, but Not Jobs Overall, Study Says
New York Times 01/25/2016
The Senate vote on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and fast track trade authority
05/22/2015
Grouped Articles
Senate Vote Is a Victory for Obama on Trade, but a Tougher Test Awaits
New York Times 05/22/2015
Obama Presses Currency Compromise in Trade Pact
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Senate Passes Fast-Track Trade Legislation
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2015
Pelosi Rejects Appeals, Hands Obama a Trade Defeat
Wall Street Journal 06/13/2015
House Rejects Trade Measure, Rebuffing Obama’s Dramatic Appeal
New York Times 06/12/2015
Senate Clears Trade Bill’s Way to Passage
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2015
How the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership Agreement (TPP) fell apart- (1) opposition in Congress and by all 2016 presidential election frontrunners in the Republican and Democratic parties
04/17/2015
Linked Articles
McConnell warns that trade deal can’t pass Congress before 2016 elections - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/11/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic Discord
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
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