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Pacific Trade Deal Likely to Have Narrow Reach
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A study by Prof. Peter Petri of Brandeis University, shows the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement boosting economic output in the U.S. by about 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion. Winners are biologic drugs which get long term patent protection, tech firms and software engineering services. Losers are the Detroit auto industry with higher auto parts imports, light manufacturing, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Prof. Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College and other experts say it is not clear how U.S. consumers and businesses will benefit. The import duties as a percentage of total imports are now at about 1.4%. Experts say about 4/5ths of the benefits of TPP for the U.S. are from opening up trade in services and new rules for investment and commerce. TPP includes Pacific countries Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. Issues are environmental rules, worker protection and standards, agricultural imports in sensitive countries such as Canada and Japan, affordable drugs in poor countries.
Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement- winners and losers
04/07/2011
A study by Prof. Petri of Brandeis University, shows economic output going up by 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion for the U.S. as a result of the TPP agreement. Biologic drugs, with long term patent protection, software engineering services, high tech industry are the winners, losers are the Detroit auto industry facing higher imports, light manufacturing in textiles and paper, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Douglas Irwin of Datmouth and other experts say it is not clear how much of the benefit will affect consumers and businesses in the U.S. Most of the tariff cut gains are already made and import duties as a percentage of total imports are down to 1.4% today. Experts say 4/5th of the benefits for the U.S. are not from tariff cuts but from new rules for trade in services, and new rules for investment and commerce. The agreement brings together Pacific area countries, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Agriculture is protected in Canada especially in Quebec, and in Japan, which means tough negotiations to open up this sector. Politically the TPP is a response by the U.S. and Japan to the Infrastructure Investment Bank set up by China with support from Europe and India.
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The issues raised cover worker protections, and also include some that are not frequently mentioned. Including the right granted to large corporations in TPP to sue the U.S. and other governments on issues where the governments have acted in the public interest as it relates to the environment, health, safeguards related to poor industry practices. A letter to WSJ says president Obama is doing this to look like a centrist president for his legacy, and not for free trade. Separately Krugman points to the issue of intellectual property rights enforcement that has the potential of making it harder to provide access to modern medicine to people in developing countries, a serious pitfall. Response to criticism by the Obama administration has generally talked about the merits of free trade which are generally accepted, and not the specific provisions, or the context in which most of the gains in free trade have already been made in the seven decades to 2015 and the remaining gains are much smaller coming with some losses. The global economy now benefits more from investments in infrastructure both in developing and advanced economies, which is why China's Infrastructure Investment Bank has received such wide support, including EU countries and India. The Obama administration has failed to make the case for investment in infrastructure to the American public, at a time when large productivity gains can be made here following about 2 decades of neglect. A similiar situation exists in Germany, and is especially true of Latin American countries which have serious infrastructure problems that reduce economic growth.
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VW Audi decided to use Mexico instead of the U.S. state of Tennessee for a $1.3 billion manufacturing plant investment in 2015, not just because of low manufacturing cost, but also because it can export more easily from Mexico. The U.S. has fewer free trade agreements than Mexico.
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WSJ poll showing the sharply shifting public sentiment on trade in 2011, perceived as hurting American workers, and a study by Autor, Hanson and Dorn, that showed its effect by counties in the U.S., gave early warnings that were not heeded by policymakers.
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Firefighters and other service workers unions actively campaigned against the trade bills in Congress for the first time in 2015. The public sector unions now see how the closing of American factories, the decline in neighborhoods near plants, affects the demand for public services and the ability of cities and municipalities to pay for the public services. The decline in wages for industrial workers creates a negative perception for the higher wages in the public sector, reducing support from struggling industrial workers. The drastic drop in factory wages with globalization and the shrinking revenues of cities as incomes decline, is leading to a realization in labor that workers are affected in many ways by seemingly unrelated developments in trade and globalization. Another development is the expert information that shows the need for investment in infrastructure in the poorer countries of Latin America, and in the U.S., which would provide significant benefits. The benefits from trade tariff reduction are now small, as most of the benefits were achieved through earlier action in trade.
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Linked Articles
Labor’s Might Seen in Failure of Trade Deal as Unions Allied to Thwart It
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