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'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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Reducing inequality and giving labor a larger share of national income to increase consumer demand, allowing more immigration, and targeting a higher inflation rate are unconventional measures necessary to increase growth as monetary policy reaches the limit of its effectiveness at near zero interest rates, says Galston. Growth in U.S. since 2000 is about 1.8% annually on average compared to 3.6% in the postwar years to 2000. Growth since 2000 rarely reaches 3% a year. Robert Gordon has pointed out the factors of a slowdown in mass education, rapidly aging population, rising inequality and increasing public debt as reasons for slower growth in the future. Glaeser and Summers also support this view. There is also the possibility that the secular stagnation idea suggested by Hansen in 1938 after years of low growth, comes at a point when growth is about to pick up pace as happened during and after the war.
Blanchflower and Posen call for the U.S. Federal Reserve to use wage growth as the best indicator of unemployment, after the misleading 288,000 jobs report of April 2014
06/06/2009
A renewed focus on the partcipation rate as the unemployment rate declines to 6.3% in April 2014. As this only counts people looking for work and many Americans have dropped out of the labor market because jobs they seek do not exist, the unemployment rate in this situation is misleading. Blanchford and Posen have written a paper on this and say the flat wage rate in March and April 2014 with no improvement in the participation rate provides a true picture of the large slack in the economy.
Grouped Articles
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
Little Agreement on Reasons for Declining Labor-Force Participation
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
Positive Jobs Report Shows Economic Fault Lines
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2014
Jobs Data May Be Icing on America's Birthday Cake
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Hiring Is Strong and Jobless Rate Declines to 6.1%
New York Times 07/03/2014
Expectations for the U.S. economy in 2013 under current policies
09/28/2012
Grouped Articles
Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Economic Signals Point to a 2013 Recession
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Forget the fiscal cliff: U.S. has other possible economic threats looming - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/14/2012
Economy Poised to Nudge Ahead in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2012
Forecasts for 2014 by Bank of America show economic growth of 2.5% in the U.S. and 3.5% global growth
11/07/2013
Bank of America CEO Moynihan gives his bank's views for the economy in 2014. He sees the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing its bond buying program to prevent any backsliding in economic growth during 2014.
Grouped Articles
BofA Chief Says Fed Will Keep Pace
Wall Street Journal 11/07/2013
U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Stalls
New York Times 06/11/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
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U.S. household wealth, consumer spending and the economy- 2013-2015
03/11/2009
The uneven distribution of household wealth gains after the stock market recovery of 2010-2013 and consumer spending more dependent on income gains.
Grouped Articles
Wealth Tide Doesn't Lift All Boats
Wall Street Journal 12/10/2013
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking Likely
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Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
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How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
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An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise Again
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Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate for 2010-2016 and its implications for unemployment and economic growth
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Grouped Articles
Job Growth Eases Fears About Effect of Closing
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Candid Criticism for Fed That Wasnât on the Agenda
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Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
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More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
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New York Times 04/05/2012
Takeaways From the Monthly Jobs Report
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Hurting economic growth and productivity in America- the lack of paid leave for women
07/28/2014
Women earn 59% of higher education degrees in America, by one estimate. Their contribution to science and technological progress would be higher with paid leave for maternity and other reasons. Participation of women in the workforce is being addressed in Japan and Germany, with calls for better child cares facilities and family friendly workplace policies. Strangely one hears less of this in the U.S. even at a time when participation in the workforce for women is declining along with an overall drop in the labor force participation rate.
Grouped Articles
Paid Leave Encourages Female Employees to Stay
New York Times 07/28/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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Engage Girls With Tech Education, Leadership Early, Women CIOs Say
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Paid Maternity Leave Is Good for Business
Wall Street Journal 12/19/2014
Can the U.S. Ever Fix Its Messed-Up Maternity Leave System
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Would You Rather Be a New Mom in the U.S. or Germany?
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Predictions for U.S. GDP and economic growth in 2013
10/12/2012
Grouped Articles
Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013
Economy May Be Getting Its Wings Clipped
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2013
Revision Shows U.S. Growing at Fastest Rate Since 2011
New York Times 12/20/2013
U.S. Economy Begins to Hit Growth Stride
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U.S. Starts to Hit Growth Stride
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
U.S. quarterly GDP and economic growth for 2014-2015
03/02/2014
Grouped Articles
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking Likely
Wall Street Journal 03/02/2014
Wall Street Journal 05/30/2014
U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Stalls
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U.S. Economy Shrinks by Most in Five Years
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In U.S. Data, a Baffling Contradiction
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Strong Growth in G.D.P., but Some Caveats
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U.S. GDP and economic growth in 2013
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Grouped Articles
Revision Shows U.S. Growing at Fastest Rate Since 2011
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U.S. Economy Begins to Hit Growth Stride
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U.S. Starts to Hit Growth Stride
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5 Takeaways From the GDP Report
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking Likely
Wall Street Journal 03/02/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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U.S. Federal Reserve and policies to counteract the effects of the "fiscal cliff" on GDP and economic growth in 2013
08/22/2012
Grouped Articles
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
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Wall Street Journal 08/01/2013
In Surprise, Fed Decides to Maintain Pace of Stimulus
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Economists See Nominee as Slightly More Dovish Bernanke
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Yellenâs Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs
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The Yellen Fed? Precise and Predictable
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Decline in demand for new homes- as more young people live with their parents- and the slower growth in the U.S. economy 2012-2015
04/24/2014
Grouped Articles
Why the Housing Market Is Still Stalling the Economy
New York Times 04/24/2014
New York Times 06/07/2014
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Graying America and the U.S. Economy
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The demographic process of aging and the changing US population. The impact on the economy and markets.
Grouped Articles
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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A Graying Population Spells Business Opportunity
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Whites Account for Under Half of Births in U.S.
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Household debt, spending and the U.S. economy 2010-2015
02/05/2008
Grouped Articles
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise Again
New York Times 02/18/2014
Economy Fitful, Americans Start to Pay as They Go
New York Times 02/05/2008
Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2009
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
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Comparison between GDP and economic growth recoveries after the 2009 U.S. recession with earlier recessions
01/14/2010
The curve for recovery in economic growth after 2009 shows a long recovery period compared to earlier recessions going back to the 1970's.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2013
5 Takeaways From the GDP Report
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Wall Street Journal 05/30/2014
U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Stalls
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'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Expands at 3.5% Rate
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Demographics, economic growth and the U.S. stock market- 2011-2020
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'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009
04/21/2014
Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.
Grouped Articles
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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The New York Times 09/16/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
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A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Strategies for U.S. economic growth 2011-2014
07/30/2011
Grouped Articles
Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery
Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
World War II Stimulus and the Postwar Boom
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2011
New York Times 09/06/2011
New York Times 09/06/2011
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
U.S. GDP and economic growth in 2014
07/10/2014
Grouped Articles
In U.S. Data, a Baffling Contradiction
New York Times 07/10/2014
Strong Growth in G.D.P., but Some Caveats
New York Times 07/30/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Expands at 3.5% Rate
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2014
U.S. Economy Posts Strongest Growth in More Than a Decade
Wall Street Journal 12/24/2014
U.S. quarterly GDP and economic growth for 2012-2013
04/27/2012
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013
Economy May Be Getting Its Wings Clipped
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2013
BofA Chief Says Fed Will Keep Pace
Wall Street Journal 11/07/2013
U.S. Economy Begins to Hit Growth Stride
Wall Street Journal 12/21/2013
U.S. Starts to Hit Growth Stride
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
The broken link between economic growth and jobs in the U.S. during the recoveries of the last 2 decades
02/14/2013
Grouped Articles
Growth isn’t enough to help the middle class - The Washington Post
Washington Post 02/14/2013
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Robust Jobs Report Spurs Fed Watch
WSJ 08/05/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
WSJ 12/06/2016
Fed Raises Rates for First Time in 2016, Anticipates 3 Increases in 2017
WSJ 12/14/2016
Low growth, the ambiguity of market signals, and the U.S. stock market in 2014
08/27/2014
Linked Articles
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
The collapse of American education and the slowest growth in America's history 2000-2020 as Biden tries to reverse this in 2024
05/19/2023
Krugman looks at the extraordinary effort put in by Robert Gordon of Northwestern University to look at the growth of America since 1850 over periods 1850-1870, 1870-1910, 1910-1950, 1950-2000 and 2000-2020 showing that the last 20 years have the lowest growth in American history. Gordon looks at the near collapse of American education, scores on NAEP of two thirds of 8th graders failing reading comprehension reflect this sad state of affairs that president Biden is trying to reverse in 2024. Other research shows a drop in potential GDP of 2 percentage points when education is failing as it has been for 2 decades. Other researchers have shown what is openly evident today that technology such as social media do more harm, that other internet use technology has not done much for education only established monopolies as with Google and Apple.
Linked Articles
Paul Krugman Reviews ‘The Rise and Fall of American Growth’ by Robert J. Gordon
New York Times 01/25/2016
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
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