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Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009

04/21/2014

Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.

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