World News Insights
1-3 Minute Gist
Search, personalize, or simply browse. Follow the world around you from gist and context to insights.
Who we are | Our Credo | Ways of using Lyrarc | FAQ | Send Feedback | First Letter From the Editor
Sign up. It's free and easy to use
Create an account
to personalize your feed of articles and topics.
All Topics Article
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Keywords:
Malkiel says both sides in the investor debate are right. Those saying the CAPE ratio in the U.S. at 25, well above long run average of 15, are right to point this out. So are the others in the debate who point to the lack of alternatives for investors when the 10 year Treasury bond is at 2.4% and short term rates essentially at zero. Stock prices reflect the discounted present value of future cash flows from dividends and capital gains. This discount rate in 2014 has to take into acount the rate on low risk securities such as 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds and and a premium for riskiness of the stock market. Add three or four percentage points to this and one gets a low discount rate for future earnings that helps support reasoning for higher stock prices, says Malkiel. On the issue of low interest rates Malkiel's view is that they will be around for a long period because the unutilized productive labor capacity and low growth are likely to persist for a long period. Here he supports Fed chairwoman Yellen's view based on the U6 labor utilization. He also sees the long run equity returns from today's prices to be much lower than the 10% long run average. By accomodating both sides Malkiel supports a broadly diversified portfolio with adequate room for emerging markets and international stocks.
Burton Malkiel on ways to tackle investment allocation decisions in the low interest rate environment of 2013-2014
12/31/2013
Malkiel says higher quality dividend stocks with dividends of 5%, emerging market stocks with lower price earning multiples of 10, and high quality bonds of emerging markets are some of the ways to balance the allocations after the surge in U.S. equity prices in 2013.
Grouped Articles
How to Overhaul Your Portfolio for 2014
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
How to Predict the Next Decade's Bond Returns
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/08/2014
Shiller Metric Carries Warning for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2014
Stock Investors See Hints of a Stronger Quarter
Wall Street Journal 04/01/2014
Value Stocks Head Higher as Growth Companies Look Pricey
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2014
Investing for 2014- strategies and prospects
04/19/2014
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Barry Ritholtz: Time, not timing, is key to investing success - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/25/2014
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
A Foreign Affair Can Benefit Stock Investors
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2014
16 Rules for Investors to Live By
Wall Street Journal 12/06/2014
Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, and Don’t Do a Thing
New York Times 08/21/2015
Investing carefully- ways to detect bubbles in stock prices, real estate and using caution
04/19/2014
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Barry Ritholtz: Time, not timing, is key to investing success - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/25/2014
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
Lessons From Fund Managers in Their 70s, 80s
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Retirees, seniors and small investors in America
05/27/2010
The crisis for U.S. retirees, seniors, and small investors in a low interest and highly volatile investing environment.
Grouped Articles
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Ten Stocks to Own During a Market Correction
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2012
How to Run a Background Check on Your Stockbroker
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2014
Stockbrokers Fail to Disclose Red Flags
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2014
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Intelligent investors and stock market rallies in 2010-2015
02/12/2011
Jason Zweig, who edited the recent publication of Benjamin Graham's classic book on investing, "The Intelligent Investor," and other experts, on the widespread public misinformation and misperceptions about stock market rallies. There is no getting around the common sense understanding that if things go up fast they will go down just as fast.
Grouped Articles
The Best Financial Advice I Ever Got (or Gave)
Wall Street Journal 12/28/2013
Ten Stocks to Own During a Market Correction
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
Test Your Smarts on Apple, Yellen, India
Wall Street Journal 01/07/2015
Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, and Don’t Do a Thing
New York Times 08/21/2015
James Anderson of Baillie Gifford investment management firm in Edinburgh, Scotland, which runs the Vanguard International Growth Fund
06/08/2014
Zweig interviews Anderson of Baillie Gifford, on the focus on long term investing using tech companies such as Amazon and Apple. The need for shareholders to focus on long term investing and the trends in the market for a short term focus in 2013-2014.
Grouped Articles
Stock Picking for the Long, Long, Long Haul
Wall Street Journal 06/08/2014
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
A Foreign Affair Can Benefit Stock Investors
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2014
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Wall Street Journal 01/08/2015
Four Reasons to Boost Your Foreign-Stock Exposure
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2015
Relevance of Value Investing strategies in 2010-2015
01/13/2013
Grouped Articles
What investors should focus on (Hint: Not the economy) - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/13/2013
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
Lessons From Fund Managers in Their 70s, 80s
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Why This Old Bull Market May Not Be Ready to Die
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2015
Low growth, the ambiguity of market signals, and the U.S. stock market in 2014
08/27/2014
Linked Articles
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
We took a different way to help millions around the world build educated informed mindsets that affects and shapes their lives. For a future that is open, global and digital, with everyone having access to high quality information. We believe in the renewal of America, renewal of Europe, the renewal of India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Africa. The renewal of our supply chains, health, education, infrastructure, as we rebuild our countries after the pandemic. Literacy and knowledge we believe cannot thrive and grow in a world of web bots, web crawlers, or AI. This requires human curiosity, human learning, and human imagination. We take as inspiration the saying- “One has to be free, and as broad as sky. One has to have a mind that is crystal clear, only then can truth shine in it.” Every contribution whether big or small is precious- in this crisis and ahead.
Support Lyrarc from as small as $1
Terms and Conditions | Copyright Policy | Privacy Policy | Contact Us