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A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT.
Views on U.S. economic growth and Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2017-2018
12/14/2016
Neil Irwin, Binyamin Applebaum of NYT, and others offer views on how Federal Reserve interest rate policy can come out in ways different from what is expected.
Grouped Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Will Trump herald a US economic boom?
The Guardian 12/07/2016
How Donald Trump May Actually Widen the U.S. Trade Deficit
WSJ 12/12/2016
Fed Raises Rates for First Time in 2016, Anticipates 3 Increases in 2017
WSJ 12/14/2016
The Fed’s Era of Easy Money Is Ending
The New York Times 03/13/2017
The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy difficulty in raising interest rates in 2015-2016
09/14/2015
The sharply slowing economy in China in September 2015 acts to put the Fed on another of a series of pause situations as it plans to raise rates. The Fed'd interest rate policy has shifted to raise rates vey gradually making the rate increases small and over an extended period of time, so that this does not affect the recovery. Very low inflation with the steep decline in commodity prices, especially oil, is making it easier for the Fed to make this pause.
Grouped Articles
Lesson for Fed: Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Been Sticking
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
Here’s a Way Yellen Can Raise Rates Without Spooking Markets
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
The Fed Gets a Last Data Point, and It Isn’t Good
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
Central Banks’ Lesson: Easy Money Alone Isn’t a Growth Salve
Wall Street Journal 09/18/2015
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009
04/21/2014
Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.
Grouped Articles
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
The New York Times 09/16/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
WSJ 12/06/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
The drop in U.S. productivity from 2.9% for 1995 to 2005 to 1.3% since 2005, and 0.3% since 2010
05/15/2015
Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Fed discusses the alarming drop in productivity growth in the U.S. and what this means for maintaining living standards and growth in incomes. Britain is experiencing a lack of growth in productivity leading to declining real wages. China and other emerging markets are also experiencing weak productivity growth.
Grouped Articles
The Mystery of Declining Productivity Growth
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2015
New York Times 05/25/2015
Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Can’t Agree Why the Economy’s Productivity Has Slumped
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2015
Washington Post 10/23/2015
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen's thinking on unemployment and expected Fed policy in 2014-2015
01/23/2014
Grouped Articles
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates
New York Times 01/23/2014
A Fed Policy Maker, Changing His Mind, Urges More Stimulus
New York Times 01/27/2014
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Fed's Yellen Sets Course for Steady Bond-Buy Cuts
Wall Street Journal 02/12/2014
Voices of caution about the economic recovery in the U.S. as underlying problems remain.
04/20/2008
Underlying problems in foreclosure rates, job losses, and toxic assets at banks remain unresolved, even as the stimulus spending plans and the Fed's putting money into the economy fast have helped restore some degree of confidence.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 10/10/2010
The Wage That Meant Middle Class
New York Times 04/20/2008
A Trap in Obama’s Spending Plan
New York Times 12/21/2008
In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 03/06/2009
Expert opinion on Federal Reserve policy in 2011-2013
08/12/2010
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted in August 2011 to keep exceptionally low rates till 2013, with three fed governors dissenting. The high market volatility in August 2011 and the Fed's decision to let the government and Congress shoulder more of the responsibility for the economy. The limited capabilities of the Fed after QE II.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
How QE 2 Could Drift Off Course
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2010
Yellen Says Restraining the Fed’s Oversight Would Be a ‘Grave Mistake’
New York Times 07/16/2014
Fed to Markets: Fly Solo, for Now
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/26/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/31/2011
U.S. Fed's Janet Yellen at the IMF, July 2, 2014- on how she sees monetary policy focussing on full employment and price stability letting regulatory supervision take on task of curtailing bubble activity
07/03/2014
Janet Yellen reemphasizes her view of focussing on full employmen and price stability. She sees regulatory supervision, including higher capital reserve requirements and regulation of short term funding, as better able to fulfill the task of restricting bubble type activities. Yellen says she is aware of the effects on emerging markets of the Fed's policies, in a question and answer session with Christine Lagarde of the IMF.
Grouped Articles
Fed's Yellen Defends Low Rates
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2014
Falling Unemployment Doesn't Rate for Fed
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2014
Fed's Yellen Hedges Her View on Rates
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed Can Be Patient on Rate-Hike Debate After Data
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2014
Yellen Says Job Market Improving, but Noncommittal About Policy Effect
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2014
Activists to Fed: Premature Rate Hikes Would Hurt Poor
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014
The caution in raising rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2015 and memories of the emerging market crisis in 1997
09/17/2015
In 1997 Federal Reserve rate increases worsened the situation in the fragile Mexican economy, with Mexico needing a large bank bailout. Contagion to other countries was also a large problem at the time. Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Larry Summers, cite the situation facing emerging markets with the sharp fall in commodity prices and the decline in the value of the currencies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia and Russia, countries dependent on commodity exports, creating risks in the global economy that the Fed could not ignore. The debt crisis in China and slowing economy, with missteps by the government in handling the stock market decline, happened in August-September 2015, creating added uncertainty- making Sept 15, 2015, too soon for the Fed to risk even a modest 0.25% increase in rates.
Grouped Articles
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015
Why China’s Market Fell So Much
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2016
Why China’s Market Illness Has Gotten More Contagious
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
A January Pause, but Fed Affirms Plan for Gradual Rate Increases
New York Times 01/27/2016
Lower unemployment in the U.S. in 2015 with weak wage gains, low productivity growth and low GDP growth
03/06/2015
Productivity growth in the U.S. since 2009 is about 1.3% according to the Labor Department, with slack in the labor market not reflected in the 5.5% unemployment rate in Feb. 2015, resulting in tepid wage gains. GDP growth for the same period is an average of about 2% with businesses not increasing capital spending as they did in previous expansions.
Grouped Articles
Sluggish Productivity Hampers Wage Gains
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2015
After a Bounce, Wage Growth Slumps to 0.1%
New York Times 03/06/2015
The New Jobs Report Shows Janet Yellen’s Quandary in a Nutshell
New York Times 03/06/2015
Slowing Job Growth Tests Economy
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2015
Oil Layoffs Hit 100,000 and Counting
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2015
U.S. Economic Growth Nearly Stalls Out
Wall Street Journal 04/29/2015
The expectations for inflation in 2014-2016 and U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Yellen's response
05/12/2014
Bernanke pointed to low inflation below the Fed's 2% target during the period of quantitative easing policies in 2010-2013. Higher prices of medical care, housing and import prices are expected in the rest of 2014. Analysts say this will taper off and inflation expectations are still much below 2% for 2014, especially as large number of part time workers keeps wage growth at a low level, and is likely to do so for a considerable period probably into 2015. Higher energy and food costs are not included in the core index for inflation the Fed looks at.
Grouped Articles
Markets Watch, Warily, for a Small Bump in Inflation
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2014
Fed Panel Has Begun to Address How to Gradually Raise Rates
New York Times 05/21/2014
WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed Can Be Patient on Rate-Hike Debate After Data
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2014
Fed Minutes Show Wariness Over Global Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2014
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
New York Times 10/16/2014
How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019
12/14/2016
Linked Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
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