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Hillary Got It Right About Growth
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Galston says Hillary Clinton is right to say as she did at Roosevelt Island in her opening campaign speech, that "growth and fairness go together, for lasting prosperity, you can't have one without the other." Economic growth was at 4% for 5 of 8 years of the Clinton presidency, but in the 15 years since the economy has managed 3% only twice in the George Bush presidency, and fallen below 2.5% in the last 5 years. The high growth rate following World War II was a result of the increase in the workforce and productivity. The workforce increased by 2% annually between 1950 and 2000. Since then as female participation peaked and the baby boomers reached retirement age the workforce has increased by 0.7%, and is slowing to 0.5% annual growth for the next decade. Growth in productivity of 1.9% between 1991 and 2007, slowed to 0.4% after 2010. Galston tells the next president to go all out to increase the labor force- adopt family friendly policies similiar to Europe so more women can work, get more immigrants into the labor force, more elderly should be encouraged to work given the better health, reduce the college dropout rate to reduce incarceration and bring more young people into the labor force, get more people who qualify for disability but could work part time into the labor force, and emphasize the importance of increasing the labor force participation rate a policy being followed by the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen.
Hillary Clinton's campaign themes for the 2016 U.S. presidential election
04/15/2015
Increasing inequality, stagnant wages and the economy, are key themes for Hillary Clinton as she begins her campaign in Iowa in April 2015.
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Obama, Hillary Clinton and the U.S. presidential election of 2016
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Hillary Clinton Tacks Right of Obama on Foreign Policy
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Hillary Clinton, for Richer or Poorer
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Calculated Risks: Hillary Rodham Clinton’s ‘Hard Choices’
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A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy
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New York Times 08/11/2014
The campaign theme for higher growth in the Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush campaigns
06/17/2015
Hillary Clinton says in her opening campaign speech at Roosevelt Island that higher growth and fairness go together. Jeb Bush says a 4% growth rate is achievable. Galston says America needs to increase the labor force participation rate, family friendly policies by business to increase the number of women in the labor force, increase the proportion of the elderly in the work force, and bring more people into the work force to increase growth.
Grouped Articles
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Economists on Bush’s Promise: Close to 0 Percent Chance of 4 Percent Growth
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New York Times 06/19/2015
Jeb Bush’s new tax plan could cost $3.4 trillion over next decade - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/10/2015
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into Populism
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Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate for 2010-2016 and its implications for unemployment and economic growth
06/06/2009
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Job Growth Eases Fears About Effect of Closing
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New York Times 04/05/2012
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How lack of family friendly maternity leave and paid leave hurts women in business and the workforce in America
07/28/2014
The U.S. is the only country of western developed nations that has no national paid maternity leave. California has introduced paid maternity leave. As a result only 59% of American women enjoy paid maternity leave, according to one estimate. The result is lower labor force participation in the U.S. for women, hurting economic growth, hurting the contribution women can make to business and other sectors of the economy, and to science and technological progress. Claire Cain Miller points this out in this exceptional report in the NYT.
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Paid Leave Encourages Female Employees to Stay
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The Global Flight From the Family
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Would You Rather Be a New Mom in the U.S. or Germany?
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Predictions for U.S. GDP and economic growth in 2015
12/24/2014
Grouped Articles
U.S. Economy Posts Strongest Growth in More Than a Decade
Wall Street Journal 12/24/2014
U.S. Economic Growth Nearly Stalls Out
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U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Surging Imports
Wall Street Journal 05/06/2015
U.S. Economy Contracted 0.7% in First Quarter
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Hurting economic growth and productivity in America- the lack of paid leave for women
07/28/2014
Women earn 59% of higher education degrees in America, by one estimate. Their contribution to science and technological progress would be higher with paid leave for maternity and other reasons. Participation of women in the workforce is being addressed in Japan and Germany, with calls for better child cares facilities and family friendly workplace policies. Strangely one hears less of this in the U.S. even at a time when participation in the workforce for women is declining along with an overall drop in the labor force participation rate.
Grouped Articles
Paid Leave Encourages Female Employees to Stay
New York Times 07/28/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Engage Girls With Tech Education, Leadership Early, Women CIOs Say
Wall Street Journal 12/04/2014
Paid Maternity Leave Is Good for Business
Wall Street Journal 12/19/2014
Can the U.S. Ever Fix Its Messed-Up Maternity Leave System
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Would You Rather Be a New Mom in the U.S. or Germany?
Wall Street Journal 03/10/2015
U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's election strategy to focus on core Democratic states
06/06/2015
The strategy means focussing on parts of the midwest such as Ohio and Wisconsin, the East and the West. It means ignoring deep red Republican states such as Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, West Virginia. This suggests less attention would be paid to the independent voter on the basis of the increased polarization in the country, and risking everything on winning with women, Hispanic and younger voters, leaving vast parts of the white working class aside. This is unlike Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2008, and Bill Clinton's two winning presidential campaigns which appealed to centrist voters. This may also be because Hillary Clinton in 2015 is perceived as a polarizing candidate for right of centre voters, compared to Bill Clinton, and the failure of Republicans to change perceptions on issues such as immigration, on women's issues, and wages, keeping the core Democratic constituency together. This could change if a Republican candidate is able to appeal to voters on the left by staking out positions on immigration, wages and womens issues that are different from the Republican party's right wing, as shown by Jeb Bush of Florida.
Grouped Articles
Hillary Clinton Traces Friendly Path, Troubling Party
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Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
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Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Hillary Clinton’s Economic Agenda Aims at a Party Shifting Left
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Hillary Clinton Offers Her Vision of a ‘Fairness Economy’ to Close the Income Gap
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The Two Parties Aren’t Crazy, Just Changed
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Jeb Bush, U.S. presidential candidate in the 2016 election
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Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
New York Times 06/19/2015
Comparison between GDP and economic growth recoveries after the 2009 U.S. recession with earlier recessions
01/14/2010
The curve for recovery in economic growth after 2009 shows a long recovery period compared to earlier recessions going back to the 1970's.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2013
5 Takeaways From the GDP Report
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U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Stalls
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'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Expands at 3.5% Rate
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2014
Forecasts for 2014 by Bank of America show economic growth of 2.5% in the U.S. and 3.5% global growth
11/07/2013
Bank of America CEO Moynihan gives his bank's views for the economy in 2014. He sees the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing its bond buying program to prevent any backsliding in economic growth during 2014.
Grouped Articles
BofA Chief Says Fed Will Keep Pace
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Hillary Got It Right About Growth
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Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009
04/21/2014
Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.
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Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
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The New York Times 09/16/2016
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The WSJ and other calls for a immigration and immigrant friendly Republican party
06/13/2011
Immigrants are not looking for handouts and immigration from Mexico is net zero today because of economic growth- these are the conclusions that show many of the myths circulating about immigration to the U.S. are not true. A call for immigrant friendly policies that go back to the Reagan period and the postwar period.
Grouped Articles
States Take Lead in Boosting Immigrants
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New York Times 05/28/2014
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Transcript: Obama’s immigration speech - The Washington Post
Washington Post 11/21/2014
Republicans confront own worst enemy on immigration - The Washington Post
Washington Post 11/21/2014
Wall Street Journal 02/18/2015
The broken link between economic growth and jobs in the U.S. during the recoveries of the last 2 decades
02/14/2013
Grouped Articles
Growth isn’t enough to help the middle class - The Washington Post
Washington Post 02/14/2013
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Robust Jobs Report Spurs Fed Watch
WSJ 08/05/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
WSJ 12/06/2016
Fed Raises Rates for First Time in 2016, Anticipates 3 Increases in 2017
WSJ 12/14/2016
The real story behind the higher growth in the Reagan-Clinton years, the lower growth during the Bush-Obama years and Jeb Bush's 4% target
06/18/2015
Linked Articles
New York Times 06/19/2015
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
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