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The American economy: Proceed with caution
Keywords:
What changed asks the Economist between the summer when the stimulus was petering out and analysts sniffed deflation for 2011, and today with the euphoria for stock markets and estimates of 4% growth for 2011? Much of the reason for the change is a second round of quantitiative easing for $600 billon announced by the Fed- buying bonds with newly created money to push down rates and stimulate lending. And the December 2010 compromise for across the board extension of the Bush tax cuts. But even though this improves the prospects for 2011, the situation after that is still in the medium term as treacherous as ever, even more so, says the Economist. High interest rates and shaky business confidence can be fixed with strong stimulus, but households and banks have to work off the excessive debt taken on in the last decade. And this deveraging has years to go. So expect more difficult patches where investor euphoria quickly turns to gloom. One other aspect of the current situation is worrisome. The bipartisan deal for the Bush tax cuts was not real bipartisanship, as each side agreed to the others huge giveaways. Real bipartisanship must mean more painful decisions in spending and taxes. The US government's failure to sort out its finances will continue to cast a shadow over the future of the economy.
The U.S. stock markets in 2010-2015 and the greater influence of macroeconomic forces.
09/24/2010
Declining influence of company earnings and the stock picking art, as stocks move in lockstep with each other, and the macroeconomic forces surrounding the US economy.
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A Federal Reserve sponsored bull market in the U.S.
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With quantitative easing (QE), the Fed creating money to buy Treasury bonds at a fast pace, and with inflation "exceptionally low" in the Fed's words, there is considerable liquidity to support the surge in stocks. But this could change quickly. Investors would benefit from caution.
Grouped Articles
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The "Melt Up" U.S. stock market rally of late 2009 and its prospects.
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Farzad of BW says economic fundamentals don't justify the rally so it could fizzle out at any time in 2010 or 2011.
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U.S. Data Offer an Uncertain Compass
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