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A Return to Internet Mania?
Keywords:
A way of gauging the extent of a bubble in the internet IPO's in 2013, says Hulbert, is the first day return on IPO's in the U.S. of 25% in mid-Aug to mid-Nov 2013 compared to 96% in the first quarter of 2000. He cites a study by finance professors Jerry Wurgler of New York University's Stern School of Business and Malcolm Baker of Harvard Business School, which stresses the need to use objective indicators in assessing the current equity markets and not relying on memories alone. Investor caution after two bubbles since 2000, active regulatory oversight of markets, and legal frameworks updated for changes in financial markets have provided additional safety and stability to markets. The study authors cite evidence for the changes in the way investor sentiment values speculative stocks compared to established stocks. The price/book ratio per share or net worth of established stocks is way higher compared to speculative stocks in 2013 compared to 2000. In 2013 established companies in the S&P 1500 index, according to FactSet, had a 49% higher price/book ratio on average than speculative stocks. Wurgler and Baker used dividend paying stocks as "established" stocks compared to non dividend paying stocks as "speculative." Another piece of evidence that companies are also adjusting to sentiment this time is that less money is coming from stock issuance in 2013 of 11% compared to 20% in 2000. Visible evidence of company behaviour is also telling- banks are changing bahaviour after tougher regulatory oversight and settlements in 2013. GE is planning to shrink GE Capital and put it on sale. Investors have sharply cut back allocations to stocks and are returning to modestly higher allocations from much lower levels and memories of 2000 and 2008 are still present.
Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest on U.S. stock markets in October 2013
11/17/2013
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Internet IPO's
11/10/2011
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The future for tech and internet IPO's in the U.S.- 2012-2017
02/11/2012
Experts say the lower rate of IPO's in coming years will be a good thing as it will reduce the boom and bust cycles for internet firms of previous years. New technology enables firms to reach breakeven stage in new products at an earlier stage using the investment of founders and angel investors- reducing dependence on venture capital- and creating firms that are more focussed on the long term.
Grouped Articles
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U.S. stock market 4th quarter 2013
04/08/2013
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Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial digest and research on the performance of U.S. large cap value stocks
03/01/2013
The resilience of large cap value stocks with lower P/E ratios in financial crises and the protection it offered in 2000-2002 and in 2008-2009, is shown in research by Hulbert using data from the University of Chicago and Dartmouth College.
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Internet company valuations in 2012-2013 reach the levels of tech startups before the bubble burst in 2000-2001
05/20/2011
A huge jump in internet valuations is recorded by May 2012, for companies such as Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, Spotify and others, similiar to the frenzied levels fefore the burst of the tech bubble in 2000-2001. Once again IPO bubble behaviour is taking place in 2012-2013.
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Eventbrite Funding Slows Its IPO Chase
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Facebook Flirts With $38 IPO Price
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Priceline Travels Road Back to High Hit in Dotcom Era
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Internet Mania and Bubble Behaviour in the U.S. - 2011-2013
01/06/2010
The IPO's of Internet companies and the mania that pushes up the price creating unsustainable valuations.
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Search for the 'Next Big Thing' leads to Soaring Valuations
New York Times 01/21/2014
Opening the Box on Tech Stocks' Next Move
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U.S. Tech stocks 2011-2015
01/26/2008
Stocks of IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Texas Instruments and other tech companies in the U.S. that have lagged behind in the recovery in stock market prices in 2011, and have lower price earnings ratios in the neighborhood of 10 compared to the long term price earnings ratio of 16.
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Margin Cloud Casts Shadow Over Cisco
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2014
Robert Shiller on U.S., European and emerging market stock markets in November 2013 and August 2014
11/17/2013
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Wall Street Journal 12/28/2013
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The U.S., European and Emerging Markets stock markets in October 2013
11/17/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
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