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Goldman Sachs: We Like Stocks, Just Not This Year
Keywords:
David Kostin, Goldman Sach's U.S. equity strategist and his prediction of the S&P 500 at 1250 at the end of 2012. The S&P was at 1421 on April 1, 2012, the highest it has been since May 20, 2008. In his research note Kostin says that over the longer term the stock market will offer opportunities after a more normal growth environment is reestablished. This is similiar to the view held by John Bogle, founder of Vanguard. For the short term- the 2012-2013 time frame Kostin sees tactical risks, and results below average. The reason he gives is low economic growth and the large degree of uncertainty. The situation in Europe shows slowing to no growth and more deficit problems, and the sanctions on Iran pose risks for oil prices.
A Federal Reserve sponsored bull market in the U.S.
09/24/2009
With quantitative easing (QE), the Fed creating money to buy Treasury bonds at a fast pace, and with inflation "exceptionally low" in the Fed's words, there is considerable liquidity to support the surge in stocks. But this could change quickly. Investors would benefit from caution.
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U.S. Bank Stocks Regain Their Allure
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How Cheap Oil Complicates Investing
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The Financial Sector Keeps Shrinking
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New York Times 11/05/2011
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Wall Street Journal 01/09/2012
Goldman Sachs: We Like Stocks, Just Not This Year
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How Cheap Oil Complicates Investing
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Crisis Shopping: Opportunities in Food and Energy Stocks
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Commodities Boom View Doesn't Budge
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Goldman Sachs: We Like Stocks, Just Not This Year
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Why Are Investors Fleeing Equities? Hint: Its Not the Computers
New York Times 08/06/2012
"Dow 36,000" - Glassman, Zweig, and others comment on the U.S. stock market
02/12/2011
Risk, volatility, and prospects for the U.S. stock market in 2010-2012.
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QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
Shiller Metric Carries Warning for Stocks
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Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000'
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When Your 401(k) Doesn't Deliver What You Expected
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How Now, 36,000 Dow? The Ominous Undertone of Rallies
Wall Street Journal 02/12/2011
Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short
Wall Street Journal 02/19/2011
Contrarians Grantham, Rodriguez, Schiff, Arends, Granville, Roubini and others- 2010-2012
01/24/2008
U.S. stock market investing and contrarians. Skepticism about the stock market rallies of 2010-2012, and the greater influence of macroeconomic forces, which include oil prices volatility with international tensions, the eurozone financial crisis, and continuing fall in housing prices. Changes in fiscal policies and tax policies resulting in withdrawal of government support are other uncertainties.
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Number of the Week: Volatile August for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2011
The Doomsayers Who Got It Right
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Why I Don't Believe In This Santa Rally
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Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market Bubble
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Wall Street's Clearance Sale Leaves Few Bargains
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Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
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'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
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The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy
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Once Bit, Rich Shy From Risk of Stocks
Wall Street Journal 08/15/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/19/2011
A Standard, and Poor, Way of Investing
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2012
The "Melt Up" U.S. stock market rally of late 2009 and its prospects.
06/06/2009
Farzad of BW says economic fundamentals don't justify the rally so it could fizzle out at any time in 2010 or 2011.
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New York Times 01/04/2010
U.S. Data Offer an Uncertain Compass
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2010
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Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Some Stock Bulls Tread Lightly Into 2014
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2013
Small Investors Flee Stocks, Changing Market Dynamics
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Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
Four Reasons Why Nasdaq 4000 Differs From Tech Bubble
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2013
U.S. stock, commodity and currency markets in 2012-2014
03/18/2012
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Stockmarkets: Don’t worry, be happy
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Wall Street Journal 08/18/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
Four Reasons Why Nasdaq 4000 Differs From Tech Bubble
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2013
The U.S. stock markets in 2010-2015 and the greater influence of macroeconomic forces.
09/24/2010
Declining influence of company earnings and the stock picking art, as stocks move in lockstep with each other, and the macroeconomic forces surrounding the US economy.
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Wall Street Journal 08/18/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/08/2014
U.S. Tech stocks 2011-2015
01/26/2008
Stocks of IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Texas Instruments and other tech companies in the U.S. that have lagged behind in the recovery in stock market prices in 2011, and have lower price earnings ratios in the neighborhood of 10 compared to the long term price earnings ratio of 16.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Wall Street Journal 08/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
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Wall Street Journal 11/26/2013
Margin Cloud Casts Shadow Over Cisco
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Trends for U.S. Dividend-Paying Stocks and Mutual Funds
05/28/2011
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In Stocks, Payouts Trump Potential
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Burned Before, Dividend Funds Diversify Beyond Same Old Sectors
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Aging, Retirement and 401(K)'s in America- 2010-2016
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The situation confronting the baby boom generation as it retires in the U.S. The stock market boom-bust cycles of 2000-2002 and 2006-2008 have hurt the 401(K) retirement accounts of most Americans. High unemployment and the housing crisis with many home owners under water has only worsened the situation. The difficult situation for seniors earning little interest on their savings. The problem of outliving ones savings for seniors with their money invested in bonds in a low interest rate environment. The median savings of Americans of close to $10,000 with only 10% of Americans having saved about $1 million by age 65. Longevity today means Americans are likely to live to age 85.
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Big 401(k) Mistakes … and How You Can Avoid Them
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Why Many Retirees Could Outlive a $1 Million Nest Egg
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Suddenly, Retiree Nest Eggs Look More Fragile
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Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
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Corporate insiders and the U.S. stock market 2011-2013
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Equity holdings of U.S. high net worth investors
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High net worth investors in the U.S. are keeping only a small share of their holdings in the stock market.
Grouped Articles
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Wall Street Journal 04/02/2012
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New York Times 04/04/2012
Skepticism about the strength of the U.S. fourth quarter 2010 stock market rally.
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Underlying weaknesses include high cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios, high corporate debt, consumer debt that has declined only slightly from the peak levels of 2008, low dividend yields, and other factors.
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Steven Pearlstein - When it comes to investing, Facebook is not for the masses
Washington Post 01/04/2011
U.S. stock market volatility 2011-2014
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Grouped Articles
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
An About-Face for the Stock Market’s 5-Year Return
New York Times 02/15/2014
Bull Market Five Years On: Still Celebrating
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Wall Street Journal 03/08/2014
Opening the Box on Tech Stocks' Next Move
Wall Street Journal 04/10/2014
Stock-Market Jitters Put Investors at Ease
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What senior executives of financial firms are doing with their own investments and what their firms are telling the public
08/23/2011
For senior executives interviewed in this survey investing is all about capital preservation. One executive has moved all his funds to U.S. government bonds and cash, another executive has given up the 60% stock 40% bond allocation recommended by financial firm advisors and moved his savings to cash and high investment grade bonds. These executives witnessed the 2008 crash and are not taking any chances. Financial advisors of these firms continue to tell the public to stay in it for the long term. Who bears the greater risk if things go wrong? The middle aged investor risks losing the bulk of his 401 (K) as he nears retirement. Investor portfolios of the middle class in America risk further losses after losses in the 2008 crisis.
Grouped Articles
How Wall Street Invests Its Money in Hard Times
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2011
Number of the Week: Volatile August for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2011
Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2011
Beware the Registered Investment Adviser
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
Where to Put Your Money in 2012
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2012
A New Year, the Same Ol' Pessimism
Wall Street Journal 01/09/2012
Expert opinion and the behaviour of the U.S. stock market in 2009 to 2014- how the shift to a "more normalized growth environment" occurred faster than anticipated
04/02/2012
Expert opinion held that a more normalized growth environment would have to return before a recovery in the U.S. equity markets. This was expected to take a period beyond 2012-2013. The actual situation was a recovery in equity markets earlier than expected with support of $3 trillion in bond buying by the U.S. Fed, and similiar support provided in Europe by the ECB.
Linked Articles
Goldman Sachs: We Like Stocks, Just Not This Year
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/08/2014
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