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Beware of 'Market Predictors'
Keywords:
Financial Planner Carl Richards, warns investors about relying too much on market predictions. He cites the law of small samples as one way things go wrong. Another is investment managers with good track records in one decade doing badly in the next decade- David Miller in the 70's and Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Fund are others. To show how ridiculous market predictions based on computer models can get he gives the example of a researcher who found that over a 13 year period butter production in Bangladesh 'explained' 75% of the fluctuations in the annual returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Adding in U.S. cheese production and the total population of sheep in Bangladesh and the U.S., this researcher was able to forecast past U.S. stock returns with 99% accuracy.
Contrarians Grantham, Rodriguez, Schiff, Arends, Granville, Roubini and others- 2010-2012
01/24/2008
U.S. stock market investing and contrarians. Skepticism about the stock market rallies of 2010-2012, and the greater influence of macroeconomic forces, which include oil prices volatility with international tensions, the eurozone financial crisis, and continuing fall in housing prices. Changes in fiscal policies and tax policies resulting in withdrawal of government support are other uncertainties.
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Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market Bubble
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Wall Street's Clearance Sale Leaves Few Bargains
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Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Investing for 2010- strategies and prospects.
01/02/2010
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Barry Ritholtz: Time, not timing, is key to investing success - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/25/2014
For Stocks in the Developed World, It Was a Decade of Zeros
New York Times 01/02/2010
Four Reasons to Remain Cautious
Wall Street Journal 01/02/2010
What the Past Can’t Tell Investors
New York Times 01/03/2010
Beware the Crisis around the corner
Financial Times 01/04/2010
Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2011
Investing for 2012- strategies and prospects
03/16/2012
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Barry Ritholtz: Time, not timing, is key to investing success - The Washington Post
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A Forecast for Low Returns, and Advice for Investors
New York Times 03/16/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2012
New York Times 03/26/2012
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Value Investing
09/02/2011
John Buckingham and others on Value Investing
Grouped Articles
What investors should focus on (Hint: Not the economy) - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/13/2013
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Lessons From Fund Managers in Their 70s, 80s
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
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5 money moves one permabull is making now - MarketWatch
Unknown 09/02/2011
Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2011
"Dow 36,000" - Glassman, Zweig, and others comment on the U.S. stock market
02/12/2011
Risk, volatility, and prospects for the U.S. stock market in 2010-2012.
Grouped Articles
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
Shiller Metric Carries Warning for Stocks
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Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000'
Wall Street Journal 02/24/2011
When Your 401(k) Doesn't Deliver What You Expected
Wall Street Journal 02/24/2011
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Wall Street Journal 02/12/2011
Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short
Wall Street Journal 02/19/2011
Aging, Retirement and 401(K)'s in America- 2010-2016
03/30/2010
The situation confronting the baby boom generation as it retires in the U.S. The stock market boom-bust cycles of 2000-2002 and 2006-2008 have hurt the 401(K) retirement accounts of most Americans. High unemployment and the housing crisis with many home owners under water has only worsened the situation. The difficult situation for seniors earning little interest on their savings. The problem of outliving ones savings for seniors with their money invested in bonds in a low interest rate environment. The median savings of Americans of close to $10,000 with only 10% of Americans having saved about $1 million by age 65. Longevity today means Americans are likely to live to age 85.
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Big 401(k) Mistakes … and How You Can Avoid Them
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2013
Why Many Retirees Could Outlive a $1 Million Nest Egg
New York Times 06/08/2013
Suddenly, Retiree Nest Eggs Look More Fragile
New York Times 06/15/2013
Low Interest Rates Are Squeezing Seniors
Wall Street Journal 03/30/2010
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
An About-Face for the Stock Market’s 5-Year Return
New York Times 02/15/2014
US Internet Stocks: 2011-2015
01/04/2011
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Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2014
Steven Pearlstein - When it comes to investing, Facebook is not for the masses
Washington Post 01/04/2011
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How Much More Could Stocks Drop? - SmartMoney.com
Unknown 08/05/2011
New York Times 03/26/2012
The U.S. stock markets in 2010-2015 and the greater influence of macroeconomic forces.
09/24/2010
Declining influence of company earnings and the stock picking art, as stocks move in lockstep with each other, and the macroeconomic forces surrounding the US economy.
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Active Fund Managers Who Earn Their Keep - Barrons.com
Unknown 04/12/2013
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Stockmarkets: Don’t worry, be happy
Economist 05/27/2013
Wall Street Journal 08/18/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/08/2014
Intelligent investors and stock market rallies in 2010-2015
02/12/2011
Jason Zweig, who edited the recent publication of Benjamin Graham's classic book on investing, "The Intelligent Investor," and other experts, on the widespread public misinformation and misperceptions about stock market rallies. There is no getting around the common sense understanding that if things go up fast they will go down just as fast.
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The Best Financial Advice I Ever Got (or Gave)
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Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
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Test Your Smarts on Apple, Yellen, India
Wall Street Journal 01/07/2015
Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, and Don’t Do a Thing
New York Times 08/21/2015
Investing for 2011- strategies and prospects
02/20/2011
Grouped Articles
Barry Ritholtz: Time, not timing, is key to investing success - The Washington Post
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Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2011
Half Stocks, Half Bonds: A Solution for Turbulent Times
New York Times 11/26/2011
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2011
The New ‘Dividend Aristocrats’
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2011
The Crisis of the Individual Investor.
03/30/2010
This crisis is most acute for firms like Schwab which pioneered individual investing after 1982. The violent nature of markets in the post 2008 period.
Grouped Articles
Low Interest Rates Are Squeezing Seniors
Wall Street Journal 03/30/2010
Ten Stocks to Own During a Market Correction
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2012
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2014
Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, and Don’t Do a Thing
New York Times 08/21/2015
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
What senior executives of financial firms are doing with their own investments and what their firms are telling the public
08/23/2011
For senior executives interviewed in this survey investing is all about capital preservation. One executive has moved all his funds to U.S. government bonds and cash, another executive has given up the 60% stock 40% bond allocation recommended by financial firm advisors and moved his savings to cash and high investment grade bonds. These executives witnessed the 2008 crash and are not taking any chances. Financial advisors of these firms continue to tell the public to stay in it for the long term. Who bears the greater risk if things go wrong? The middle aged investor risks losing the bulk of his 401 (K) as he nears retirement. Investor portfolios of the middle class in America risk further losses after losses in the 2008 crisis.
Grouped Articles
How Wall Street Invests Its Money in Hard Times
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2011
Number of the Week: Volatile August for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2011
Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2011
Beware the Registered Investment Adviser
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
Where to Put Your Money in 2012
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2012
A New Year, the Same Ol' Pessimism
Wall Street Journal 01/09/2012
A Federal Reserve sponsored bull market in the U.S.
09/24/2009
With quantitative easing (QE), the Fed creating money to buy Treasury bonds at a fast pace, and with inflation "exceptionally low" in the Fed's words, there is considerable liquidity to support the surge in stocks. But this could change quickly. Investors would benefit from caution.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Wall Street Journal 05/11/2013
Stockmarkets: Don’t worry, be happy
Economist 05/27/2013
Wall Street Journal 05/29/2013
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
An About-Face for the Stock Market’s 5-Year Return
New York Times 02/15/2014
Corporate insiders and the U.S. stock market 2011-2013
03/05/2012
Grouped Articles
The Inside Track on the Market Rally
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2012
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2012
New York Times 03/26/2012
Goldman Sachs: We Like Stocks, Just Not This Year
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2012
Two Pros Weigh In on U.S. Stocks: Ben Inker's Bearish View
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2012
S.&P. 500 Dips After Fed Signals No New Stimulus
New York Times 04/04/2012
U.S. stock, commodities and currency markets in mid 2011
07/12/2010
Grouped Articles
Number of the Week: Volatile August for Stocks
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2011
Small Investors Flee Stocks, Changing Market Dynamics
Wall Street Journal 07/12/2010
Dismal Science Takes Dim View of Dow 'Record'
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2013
Stock Bulls Look Past Rough Patch
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2011
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2011
Could Japanâs Debt Lead to a Crisis?
New York Times 05/26/2011
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