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The Case for Dividend Funds in Retirement
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Clements provides an exceptionally useful reasoning for the average investor to give an important role to high dividend paying stocks in retirement planning. This applies to today's low interest environment with stock market volatility. The higher dividends help reduce the need to sell stocks in a volatile stock market and limit this to occasional selling. Using estimates from Yale Prof. Shiller's website for past 100 years data diversified U.S. stocks with high dividends pay about 4.4% in annual dividends outpacing the inflation average of 3.2%, and 5.6% appreciation in value of the stock each year. This helps preserve retirement capital. As many high dividend large cap stocks are also value stocks there is an additional value effect in holding these stocks.
The shift to dividend paying stocks for the long term in 2012-2013, as expected returns diminish for bonds and with higher volatility for stocks.
05/28/2011
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Retirement strategy to shift to high paying dividend stocks in 2014-2016 in a low interest environment with stock market volatility
04/15/2014
Clements provides reasons why high dividend paying stocks with a solid cash reserve and possibly a annuitized investment have an important role in today's retirement plan. The dividends mean less need to sell stocks in today's volatile stock market, only occasional selling required. As the large cap high dividend stocks are often value stocks there is a value effect that adds to retirement savings.
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The situation confronting the baby boom generation as it retires in the U.S. The stock market boom-bust cycles of 2000-2002 and 2006-2008 have hurt the 401(K) retirement accounts of most Americans. High unemployment and the housing crisis with many home owners under water has only worsened the situation. The difficult situation for seniors earning little interest on their savings. The problem of outliving ones savings for seniors with their money invested in bonds in a low interest rate environment. The median savings of Americans of close to $10,000 with only 10% of Americans having saved about $1 million by age 65. Longevity today means Americans are likely to live to age 85.
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Points to consider are the market conditions when entering retirement, the lower income on bonds, inflation, unforeseen or hidden expenses, and life expectancy. A lower P/E 10 ratio for the market is considered better than a higher P/E ratio- the current P/E 10 ratio reflecting past 10 years of earnings is about 23 according to Shiller.
Grouped Articles
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Large income losses for people ages 55-64 and nearing retirement in the U.S.
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Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial digest and research on the performance of U.S. large cap value stocks
03/01/2013
The resilience of large cap value stocks with lower P/E ratios in financial crises and the protection it offered in 2000-2002 and in 2008-2009, is shown in research by Hulbert using data from the University of Chicago and Dartmouth College.
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