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China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
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The comparison of China with Japan as stress builds up from overexpansion of credit in the banking system. The sharp increase in credit following the 2008 financial crisis has built up stress in China's banking system. Japan went through a period of low growth and insufficient lending by banks. Banks refinanced bad debts to zombie companies in Japan leading to a long period of low growth. China faces a similiar period of low growth after a credit expansion binge.
China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
05/29/2010
China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
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Mexico and China look to trade away old rivalry - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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China's Silver Linings Playbook
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U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
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The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
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Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
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China's central bank, People' Bank of China (PBOC), and policies promoting macroprudence in lending in 2013-2014
06/25/2013
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As Markets Seesaw, Chinaâs Central Bank Tries to Allay Concern on Tight Credit
New York Times 06/25/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Insuring a Path to Chinese Reform
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2013
Fitch Ratings analyst Charlene Chu's analysis of China's shadow banking and unreported private debt
08/01/2010
CHina's private debt is over twice China's GDP according to Fitch Ratings analyst Charlene Chu
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Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Heard on the Street: Shadow Boxing With Risk at Chinese Banks
Wall Street Journal 09/22/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
Chinaâs Real Estate Boom and Conflicting Policy
New York Times 08/01/2010
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Problems facing the China Bank Regulatory Authority (CBRC) for off-balance sheet lending and shadow banks
06/17/2010
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
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Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Distress Signs Test Beijing's Resolve
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Off-balance sheet shadow lending by Chinese banks.
01/12/2010
Even after the efforts to restrain lending in 2010 in China following heightened stimulus lending in 2009, the level of bank lending has exceeded 10.5 trillion yuan and is at the same level as 2009. This includes the lending through trusts and other mechanisms according to Fitch Ratings. This explains the inflationary pressures and property bubble.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Krugman on China, "shadow banking," bubble in housing and construction, and shrinking role of consumer spending in GDP growth
04/14/2010
Krugman says China's economic planners are no better then planners in the U.S. and Europe who failed to take action against the housing bubble.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 12/18/2011
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Heard on the Street: Shadow Boxing With Risk at Chinese Banks
Wall Street Journal 09/22/2013
China's banking system in 2010-2015
01/12/2010
The effects of the stimulus spending binge and speculative behaviours of local governments and state owned companies, on the loans made by state owned banks.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
China's local government debt poses a risk for the economy
06/17/2010
China's local government debt is estimated to be in the range of 27% to 42% of GDP. Loans by banks to local government financing vehicles face high risk of default.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China's state-owned banks
01/07/2010
Grouped Articles
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2013
China Banks Keep the Fees Flowing
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
Risks in China's banking and financial system in 2010-2015
12/11/2010
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
The bond market in China and risks to the banking system
08/16/2013
Grouped Articles
Critics Decry Risks Posed by Link Between China's Banks and Bonds
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Bond Market in China May See First Local Default
New York Times 03/04/2014
Default Signals Growing Maturity of China's Bond Market
New York Times 03/07/2014
China's Moment of Truth: Financial Reform or Growth?
Wall Street Journal 09/16/2014
Why Investors Shy Away From China’s $6.4 Trillion Bond Market
Wall Street Journal 07/23/2015
Large exposure to local government financing vehicles of China's smaller banks
06/17/2010
Larger banks have a smaller portion of their loans made to local government financing vehicles than the larger banks. Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commerical Bank of China have 6-7% of their loans made to local government financing vehicles, compared to 20% for Everbright Bank and 13-20% for other smaller banks. This means they will be the first to be in trouble in a financial crisis because of the high risk and poor asset quality of such loans.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2013
Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2010
BusinessWeek 07/29/2010
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