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A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
Keywords:
In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia.
Credit Growth to GDP ratio as a Warning Light in Malaysia 2011-2014
06/10/2010
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
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Abe Win Is Good for the Neighbors
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Malaysia Gets Pulled Into Selloff
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Malaysia Plans $70 Billion New Spending in Five-Year Plan
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Economist 02/04/2014
Increasing credit to GDP ratios in Asia- 2008-2013
06/10/2010
Rapidly increasing credit to GDP ratios in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand since the 2008 financial crisis. Increasing bank credit to households and businesses.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Abe Win Is Good for the Neighbors
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2013
Malaysia Gets Pulled Into Selloff
Wall Street Journal 08/21/2013
Malaysia Plans $70 Billion New Spending in Five-Year Plan
Wall Street Journal 06/10/2010
Economist 02/04/2014
Credit card debt in Brazil, China, Turkey and other emerging market countries.
10/09/2010
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
Investors Flee Developing Countries
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014
Turkish Intervention Fails to Stem Lira Sell-Off
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014
Turkey Gets Aggressive on Rates
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2014
Indonesia's debt, credit ratings and borrowing costs
09/21/2011
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Abe Win Is Good for the Neighbors
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Indonesia Faces Price Rise as Currency Weakens
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2013
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2012
Indonesia Sees Surge in Foreign Investment
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2012
Turkey's credit ratings
09/21/2011
Grouped Articles
Turkish Markets Boosted by Rating Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Turkish Intervention Fails to Stem Lira Sell-Off
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2012
Credit card debt surges and the effects on U.S. consumer spending, followed by household debt reduction.
07/05/2008
The result is huge swings in consumer spending, first with rising debt and then with debt reduction and the cultural shift to different lifestyles.
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A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2009
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise Again
New York Times 02/18/2014
Americans Pocketing What They Save on Gas, Retail Data Suggests
New York Times 01/14/2015
Turkey's unsustainable current account deficit, excessive credit growth and competitiveness issues in 2011-2014
10/19/2010
Grouped Articles
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
Hit to Nation's Stable Image Threatens to Damage Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2013
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Vietnam's credit ratings
09/21/2011
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Rating Cut in Vietnam Spurs Fears Over Banks
Wall Street Journal 09/29/2012
Vietnam Loses Glow as a Market Darling
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2012
Vietnam Tells Central Bank to Clean Up Bad Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/09/2012
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein and warnings about overheating credit markets in 2013
09/21/2011
U.S. Fed governor Stein says he understands Bernanke's reasons for an accomodative stance, yet sees the need to be sensitive about the costs of pursuing this strategy.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Weâre All Still Hostages to the Big Banks
New York Times 08/25/2013
Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2013
Bernanke's World War II Monetary Regime
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2013
The lack of meaningful reform of credit rating agencies.
10/01/2009
Grouped Articles
Rating Firms Steer Clear of an Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
The Stone Unturned: Credit Ratings
New York Times 03/22/2014
S. & P. E-Mails on Mortgage Crisis Show Alarm and Gallows Humor
New York Times 02/05/2013
S.&P. Settlement Leaves Future Unclear for Ratings
New York Times 02/03/2015
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2009
Turkey's economy and the street protests in 2013
09/21/2011
Grouped Articles
Hit to Nation's Stable Image Threatens to Damage Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2013
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Turkish Leader Says Razing of Park to Proceed
New York Times 06/06/2013
In Istanbulâs Taksim Square, an Achillesâ Heel
New York Times 06/07/2013
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Emerging markets and the sea of liquidity that undermines manufacturing competitiveness in Brazil, Turkey and other countries
04/25/2011
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Emerging Markets, Hitting a Wall
New York Times 06/22/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
How Emerging Markets Can Get Their Mojo Back
Wall Street Journal 09/12/2013
Turkey's current account deficit in 2011-2013
10/19/2010
Grouped Articles
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Turkeyâs Rapidly Rising Currency Has Downside
New York Times 10/19/2010
Turkish Intervention Fails to Stem Lira Sell-Off
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014
Turkey Gets Aggressive on Rates
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2014
Dutchman Bob Traa's mid-2009 IMF report on Greece and the warning light on Greece
03/03/2010
Analysts point to the lack of immediate action as the main reason the crisis is spiralling out of control. The IMF report in mid 2009 raised the alarm on Greece's financial situation. One estimate is for bondholders needing to take 85% haircut on loans to Greece, instead of the 50% agreed to under the EU plan in November 2011. The situation has worsened as ECB president Trichet and others in the EU pushed austerity plans on Greece without working out needed serious debt reduction of over half the debt in 2009. The idea of a default in the eurozone was considered unthinkable, leading to errors in judgement by decisionmakers.
Grouped Articles
Greek Debt Crisis: The Back Story
New York Times 08/13/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Greece and the illusory nature of the troika's (ECB, IMF, EU) target for debt to GDP of 120% in 2020
06/30/2011
The artificial nature of the target especially considering all the unpredictables invoved.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
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Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
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Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
The Greek Debt Deal’s Missing Piece
New York Times 08/15/2015
Why most of the bailout loans to Greece actually go back to creditors as interest on debt
06/30/2011
Two thirds of the $177 billion in bailout loans to Greece since May 2010 from the IMF, ECB and EC actually went back to these creditors. The money route was setup in circular fashion with escrow accounts in Athens so that the money went right back as interest payments on debt.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
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IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
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Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
The steps towards renegotiating the March 2012 bailout deal for Greece by the coalition governmment of Antonis Samaras
07/01/2011
Participation by the ECB, the IMF and the EC in negotiations with the new Greek government of Antonis Samaras to come up with a revised loan agreement for Greece. New Democracy's Samaras, the new prime minister of Greece in June 2012, has insisted that the terms should include ways in which Greece can return to growth, and the Democratic Left party, the third coalition partner, has insisted that the timetable for the deficit targets needs to be extended and the harshest austerity measures such as cutting the minimum wage be cancelled.
Grouped Articles
Frenemies: Two Greek Rivals Hold Nation's Fate in Balance
Wall Street Journal 07/26/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
New York Times 06/23/2013
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
Deficits as a percentage of GDP for Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Greece 2011-2013
04/30/2010
Grouped Articles
Italy Urged to Resist a Relapse in Spending
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
Europe to Vote on Tougher Rules for Currency
New York Times 09/27/2011
Portugal Plans Cuts in Spending
Wall Street Journal 05/30/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
The Next Global Problem: Portugal
New York Times 04/30/2010
German Optimism Depends On Spanish Deficits
Wall Street Journal 09/25/2013
The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
04/14/2010
The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit to GDP ratio as a Warning Light in Turkey
04/25/2011
Grouped Articles
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
Hit to Nation's Stable Image Threatens to Damage Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Erdogan Tightens Grip on Turkey, Putting Nation at Crossroads
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2013
Business credit card debt surge and rising default means the 27 million U.S. small business owners are less likely to hire
07/05/2008
Between 2000 and 2009 there was a sixfold jump in the number of business credit cards to 29 million and the debt on these cards jumped four fold to $296 billion. Small business owners acquired the bad habit of using these cards for operating expenses. with rising default rates, small businessowners are less likely to hire and create jobs as they have done before.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Big Banks Cut Back on Loans to Small Business
Wall Street Journal 11/27/2015
Credit Card Overhauls Seem Likely
New York Times 07/05/2008
New Indian Middle Class Gets Caught In the Whirlwind of Revolving Credit
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2008
AmEx Gets Access to Bailout Fund
Wall Street Journal 11/11/2008
Risky Business for AmEx Holders
Wall Street Journal 11/12/2008
How debt can suddenly sink firms as business swings lead to a drying up of business.
10/14/2008
It can happen to GM and Chrysler, and a near miss for Ford and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs is only pretending that it did not have a near miss after Lehman's collapse. The same can happen to an architectural firm Yamasaki as corporate real estate market collapses in 2009. The volatility and nervousness in financial markets in 2008 that shut companies out of credit markets and led to the government led auto industry bailout with planned bankruptcy filings.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
After a Financial Flood, Pipes Are Still Broken
New York Times 09/14/2013
Morgan Stanley Memo by John Mack
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2008
Anatomy of the Morgan Stanley Panic
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2008
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2009
Morgan Stanley Comes Up Golden
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Junk bonds issued by China's housing developers in 2013-2014 and the higher risks to foreign investors
09/21/2011
The yields on these bonds have declined from 11-12% in 2012 to 7-8% in 2013. Investors risk losing everything as the bonds are issued by foreign subsidiaries and are not backed by the housing developer's assets in China. Creditors and banks in China are the first to get their money back in a bankruptcy as in the case of the bankruptcy of Suntech Power, while foreign bondholders risk complete losses. Developers in China are increasing issuance of junk bonds as there is limited access to other sources of financing.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Critics Decry Risks Posed by Link Between China's Banks and Bonds
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2013
Bond Market in China May See First Local Default
New York Times 03/04/2014
The Man at the Center of Solar-Panel Maker Suntech's Fall
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
Rapid acceleration in credit growth in China after 2008 and the complacency about the risks to the financial system
04/14/2010
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2010
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Greece- debt, credit ratings and borrowing costs- 2010-2015
03/29/2010
Investors returning to Greek bonds in 2013 because of higher yields in a low interest rate environment.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Fitch Raises Greece's Credit Rating
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Greece Gets Rating Recognition
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
Greece Bulls Charge Into Corporate Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
In Crucial Test, Greece Raises $6.7 Billion in Bond Sale
New York Times 03/29/2010
Wall Street Journal study of the performance of credit ratings firms for sovereign defaults since 1975
08/12/2011
A review of the performance of the sovereign ratings units of S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, shows the ratings firms did poorly in predicting defaults in the 12 months preceding the actual default. The ratings take into account static indicators such as current account balances but pay less attention to political changes and bank deposit flows. Investment managers turn to changes in bond yields for government debt as a better indicator of default conditions.
Grouped Articles
Rating Firms Steer Clear of an Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
What Crisis? Big Ratings Firms Stronger Than Ever
Wall Street Journal 03/10/2016
Raters Fail to See Defaults Coming
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2011
New S&P Chief Knows Crisis and Change
New York Times 08/24/2011
At S&P, a Crusader for Tough Ratings
Wall Street Journal 10/05/2011
The U.S. credit boom and growth in issuance of junk bonds in 2012-2013
09/21/2011
A 55% increase in the issuance of junk bonds in the U.S. in 2012 raises alarm signals at the U.S. Federal Reserve. One group of Fed governors, including Jeremy Stein and Richard Fisher, calls for caution in Fed policy.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/11/2013
When Model Borrowers Bite Back
Wall Street Journal 05/28/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Weâre All Still Hostages to the Big Banks
New York Times 08/25/2013
The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Fed Split Over How Long To Keep Cash Spigot Open
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2013
The risks stemming from the boom in household credit in Turkey 2010-2013
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Alarm Over Istanbul’s Building Boom
New York Times 05/20/2014
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2012
Spain- debt, credit ratings, and borrowing costs 2011-2014
01/04/2011
Bond yields for Spanish government bonds in 2011-2014.
Grouped Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Europe Bonds May Offer More Value
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2013
New Spanish Budget Free of Austerity Measures
New York Times 09/27/2013
Netherlands Loses Triple-A Rating, Spain Outlook Raised
Wall Street Journal 11/30/2013
Bonds of Italy, Spain Narrow Gap With U.S., German Yields
Wall Street Journal 04/09/2014
Turkey as emerging market.
09/01/2010
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/22/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Emerging Markets, Hitting a Wall
New York Times 06/22/2013
Emerging Markets Are on Their Own
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New terms for emerging markets- MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, S. Korea and Turkey) after BRICS
09/21/2011
Investors look to the MIST countries and N-11 (the 11 other emerging markets) as growth slows in BRICS countries.
Grouped Articles
Hit to Nation's Stable Image Threatens to Damage Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Emerging Markets Are on Their Own
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
New York Times 08/22/2013
Turkey's central bank- interest rate policies 2012-2014
09/21/2011
Grouped Articles
Turkey, Seeking Growth, Cuts Rates
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2013
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Turkish Corruption Probe's Effects Felt Far and Wide
Wall Street Journal 12/21/2013
Turkish Intervention Fails to Stem Lira Sell-Off
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014
Turkey Seeks to Avert Financial Crisis
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2014
IMF in the Eurozone financial crisis of 2010-2012
03/03/2010
Aid package to Greece and funds for other eurozone countries. The IMF's involvement in protecting the eurozone.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
The IMF's March 2012 Report on Greece predicting "a disorderly exit from the euro" in the absence of further support
05/27/2010
The IMF says Greece is still "accident-prone" after the dept swap with private bondholders in March 2012. Its competitiveness problem may take a decade to resolve.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Rescue of Spain's banks with a $125 billion committment from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
02/25/2010
EU finance ministers persuaded Spain to borrow from the EFSF and place the money in a special fund intended to recapitalize its banks. The IMF will provide some oversight over the banks but no conditions or oversight will be imposed on Spain only on its banking system as a compromise. Problems in the banking system arise from a housing bubble in Spain and failing cajas savings banks. Spain has already committed to adhering to fiscal deficit targets on a longer term basis with the EU. This makes it a rescue of the banks more than a bailout of the kind deisgned for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
The Pain in Spain Falls Mainly on the Cajas
BusinessWeek 02/25/2010
Economist 05/29/2010
Spain's Bankia Returns to Profit
Wall Street Journal 02/04/2014
Spain requests bailout help - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/10/2012
Capital inflows of hot money, the lack of capital controls and the financial crisis in Cyprus
09/21/2011
Capital inflows into Cyprus accelerated after it appeared that Ireland's banking system had serious problems. This happened through demand deposits that could be withdrawn quickly. The problem of volatile capital flows is similiar to that faced by Asian countries in the 1997 Asian banking crisis when capital outflows came at the worst possible time for the banks.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Cyprus Heads Toward Exit, Leaving Greece as Last Bailout Member
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2016
Cyprus Capital Controls Come Years After They Were Needed
New York Times 03/28/2013
As Banks in Cyprus Falter, Other Tax Havens Step In
New York Times 03/31/2013
The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report- Sept 2011
09/21/2011
One of the critical indicators that acts as a warning light is the credit growth to GDP ratio. If this exceeds 5% it acts a a warning indicator for a country, according to the IMF. It exceeded 24% in China in 2009. And it has exceeded 5% in Brazil for three years in a row- 2006-2008. Turkey and Vietnam are also on the list of countries with high unsustainable credit growth.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
World Bank Predicts Slower Growth and Urges Precautions
New York Times 01/17/2012
Citing 99%, Protester Interrupts World Bank’s Zoellick in China
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2012
I.M.F. Lowers Its Forecast for Global Growth
New York Times 10/08/2012
Global Economy: Factors promoting stable long term growth (pre-2008 Crisis)
09/20/2007
Factors promoting stable long term economic growth in the global economy. This helps US prospects in a downturn as exports help cushion credit and housing weakness. Less volatility for a number of reasons, see the IMF World Economic Outlook Chapter 5 on the IMF website for details.
Grouped Articles
World Economy in Flux As America Downshifts
Wall Street Journal 09/20/2007
World's Economy to Stay on Its Axis
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2007
A Helping Hand from Foreign Demand
BusinessWeek 11/05/2007
BusinessWeek 11/05/2007
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
The household credit boom in Turkey and unsustainable credit to GDP ratios in 2010-2013
09/21/2011
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
S. Korea and unsustainable levels of household debt to disposable income of 155% in 2012-2013
09/21/2011
Linked Articles
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
We took a different way to help millions around the world build educated informed mindsets that affects and shapes their lives. For a future that is open, global and digital, with everyone having access to high quality information. We believe in the renewal of America, renewal of Europe, the renewal of India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Africa. The renewal of our supply chains, health, education, infrastructure, as we rebuild our countries after the pandemic. Literacy and knowledge we believe cannot thrive and grow in a world of web bots, web crawlers, or AI. This requires human curiosity, human learning, and human imagination. We take as inspiration the saying- “One has to be free, and as broad as sky. One has to have a mind that is crystal clear, only then can truth shine in it.” Every contribution whether big or small is precious- in this crisis and ahead.
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