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Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Keywords:
The dangers to Turkey from external short term borrowings to finance its current account deficit. Turkey's current account deficit reached 10% of GDP in 2011. It is 8% in 2012 and is considered high by experts. The problem is short term borrowing from overseas which is sent through its banks for increasing levels of personal and housing loans. Were this flow to dry up because of a sharp downturn in the Eurozone economies it would damage Turkey's financial position. Bank short term external debt has doubled in 2011-2012 to $70.3 billion, or 9% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The U.S. Fed and the ECB have eased global liquidity concerns, but risks are high as long as Turkey relies on short term borrowing. An escalation of the conflict with Syria also poses risks with fears of scaring away investors.
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The Syrian civil war is spilling over into Iraq. Iraq is unable to protect its airspace from being used by Iran to ship supplies to the Assad regime, or to prevent Turkey's warplanes from using Iraqi airspace to attack Kurdish separatists. There is also a danger of a Sunni-Shiite conflict being exacerabated by former Sunni insurgents in Iraq joining up with Sunni refugees from Syria. The Maliki government in Iraq is moving closer to Iran as the Syrian civil war escalates and brings Sunnis together against the Assad regime. Turkey is also seeing the effects of a flow of refugees on its border with Syria. The Obama administration has been slow to respond to the rapidly developing situation as it concentrates on a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq with the lack of agreement on a residual U.S. troop presence. This leaves the U.S. less than the minimum leverage that is needed just as the sectarian divisions are worsening, after years of investing resources in the region. With the EU countries focussed on economic problems, and the Obama administration's lack of active support for the Free Syria movement, the broader involvement of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia in the region, the situation is likely to lead to an international crisis without U.S. leadership.
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Turkey's exports to Iraq increased to over $8 billion in 2011.
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Grouped Articles
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The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
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The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
The risks stemming from the boom in household credit in Turkey 2010-2013
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
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A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
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Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
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Alarm Over Istanbul’s Building Boom
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BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2012
Turkey's stock market 2010-2013
08/09/2011
Grouped Articles
Turkey Must Balance Success With Excess
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Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
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Turkish Stocks Drop the Most in Three Years
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Slowdown Fears Slam U.S. Stocks
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Dangers facing Turkey's economy with its dependence on foreign capital inflows and excessive growth in domestic credit for growth
10/04/2012
Foreign capital inflows that partly support the sharp growth in domestic credit could slow or reverse as happened in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The IMF sees a credit to GDP ratio of over 5% as a warning light for developing economies. The IMF forecast is for this rato to be 7.28% for Turkey in 2103.
Linked Articles
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2012
The perils for Turkey's economy with the surge in short term external debt of the private sector and the street protests in Istanbul
10/04/2012
Linked Articles
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External Worry
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2012
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
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