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Wall Street Journal study of the performance of credit ratings firms for sovereign defaults since 1975
08/12/2011
A review of the performance of the sovereign ratings units of S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, shows the ratings firms did poorly in predicting defaults in the 12 months preceding the actual default. The ratings take into account static indicators such as current account balances but pay less attention to political changes and bank deposit flows. Investment managers turn to changes in bond yields for government debt as a better indicator of default conditions.
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Raters Fail to See Defaults Coming
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Why Wall Street Can't Handle the Truth
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