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Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
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Paul de Grauwe, a economist at the London School of Economics points to two problems with the June 28, 2012 EU deal that allows the EU rescue fund to buy Spanish and Italian bonds and provide capital aid directly to Spanish banks. One is the limited funds of the rescue fund, European Financial Stability Facility or by its other name European Stability Mechanism. The EFSF or ESM lacks credibility because it lacks resources, it has only 248 billion euros, and has to first raise money in the bond markets. A better approach would be for the ECB to buy Spanish and Italian bonds aggressively, allowing a smaller spread between these bonds and the German bonds, says Grauewe. Germany is the largest shareholder at the ECB and opposes this move as a form of mutualizing of debt in the EU. Grauwe's recent paper shows that the depressed bond conditions for Spain and Italy are driven largely by a psychology of fear and not hard true economic numbers. Christopher Marks, global head of debt capital markets at BNP Paribas, says it is important to create the confidence to get longer term core investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies back into this market for Spanish and Italian bonds by reducing volatility and yield. These longer term investors have left the market creating a severe problem. The shorter term investors, who came into this market in the last 1-2 years, are now the loudest voice saying Spain and Italy are likely to fail. These shorter term investors are either selling these bonds short or getting credit default swaps. A big problem coming out of the June 28, 2012 agreement, is that it is short on details. The details of how the rescue fund will operate, its funding, and the conditions for making making direct loans for stakes in banks or buying government bonds are still to be clarified. Germany's Constitutional Court also will rule on how this would be conducted and the Merkel government would continue tough negotiations on the details creating added uncertainty.
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Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
Short term actions to save the euro taken at the Brussels negotiations on June 28, 2012
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Bond yields for Spanish government bonds in 2011-2014.
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Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
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Grouped Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
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The high loan to deposit ratios of European banks and short term borrowings from money markets
06/10/2012
The loan to deposit ratios for European banks are on average over 110%. For U.S. banks it is about 78%. This means banks rely on borrowed money from money markets and other institutions, for loans made in excess of the deposits made at the banks. The borrowings are on a short term basis. The loan to deposit ratios for Spanish banks are about 160% for Bankia, and 115% for Banco Santander. The situation is similar in Italy.
Grouped Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
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The importance of long term bond buyers to restoring confdence in Italian and Spanish government bonds in 2012-2013
12/02/2011
Large institutional buyers such as insurance companies and pension funds have exited the market for Italian and Spanish government bonds creating a great deal of instability in the market and pushing up yields as aresult fo the fear factor. The need for the ECB to take up large scale purchase of bonds to induce these longterm buyers to return to the market and restore a measure of confidence. The June 28 summit authorized the rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM or EFSF) to make these purchases, but experts say it has only 248 billion euros and needs to go back to markets for additional funding.
Linked Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2011
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