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What Derailed the Economic Recovery? Three Possible Explanations
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David Wessel says there are three hypotheses about the slow recovery with growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2011, estimated growth of 1.4-1.5% for the second quarter. The first, is that this is transitory, with gas prices, Japan's tsunami disrupting supply chians, and Europe's poor handling of the financial crisis. This he scores as wishful thinking. The second, that the stimulus was too small, the need for a second stimulus, or the related hypothesis of the large uncertainty hanging over business, including the debt ceiling negotiations, deficit etc. This he scores as more convincing, but one is not sure different policies would have led to a different situation. The third hypothesis is that the underlying diagnosis of the economy itself was hopeful but flawed and wrong. Hope about the housing market- which has been proved wrong. The same for exports, or consumer spending. Wessel cites Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt's new book on the afterperiod of financial crises and asset bubbles, with data going back to many historical periods showing that the periods following crises are difficult having protracted periods of slow or marginal economic growth.
Reviews of "This Time is Different" by Rogoff and Reinhart
01/21/2008
Boom, bust cycles, with high indebtedness, asset bubbles, and unsustainable current account deficits are followed by long periods of slow or nonexistent growth say Rogoff and Reinhart in their new book. This raises questions about the now current hypothesis that economic recovery will take place in 2011-2013. As the book's title suggests there are long periods in history that show this and it is gaining in credibility as the column by David Wessel in the Wall Street Journal July 21,2011, suggests.
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What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
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New York Times 03/01/2009
Growing Risks for the U.S. Economy in 2010-2012.
01/04/2010
Risks of another hit from losses on home equity loans to bank balance sheets in latter part of 2010. The situation with local and state governments in the USA cutting back significantly. The situation in Europe and an overheating Chinese economy.
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The Home-Equity Hurt Ahead for Banks
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Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market Bubble
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Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
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Real Disposable Income: Bad News for Democrats?
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Krugman on the Obama Administration, banks, settlements and the U.S. foreclosure crisis in 2011
01/02/2009
Failure of the Obama administration to reduce foreclosures and help homeowners. A worsening foreclosure situation leads to a continuing decline in housing prices and hampers an economic recovery in the U.S. This is something Martin Feldstein grasped very early during the 2008 financial crisis and made proposals for helping homeowners under water.
Grouped Articles
Washington Post 09/06/2011
Book portrays dysfunction in Obama White House - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/17/2011
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
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Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears
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Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Charlie Rose Talks to Robert Reich
BusinessWeek 10/21/2010
Lawrence Lindsey on how Bernanke's Fed has boxed itself in with no choice but to keep interest rates low and no clear exit strategy
01/04/2010
Economist Lindsey says Fed chairman Bernanke has to keep interest rates low for the U.S. government to be able to cope with the increase in borrowing costs that normal interest rates would bring. The normalized interest rate - the rate at which the U.S. government was able to borrow for the last three decades- is about 5.7%. At that rate the U.S. government would add $800 billion to borrowing costs for 2021, says Lindsey. The U.S. now borrows at about 2.5%
Grouped Articles
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed
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Reflections by America’s Buddha of Banking
New York Times 01/16/2014
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
Fed Darkens Its Outlook but Plans No Changes
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2011
The Deficit Is Worse Than We Think
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Raghuram Rajan on the risks to the U.S. economy and society before the 2008 financial crisis
01/02/2009
Is Bernanke making the same mistake made by Greenspan by keeping interest rates too low for too long. Would a stronger safety net in the US ease pressures on the US Federal Reserve to do excessive monetary easing and instead allow the Fed to let a more natural rise in employment take place? He isn't ideological and joins John Taylor, George W Bush's economic advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon, in questioning Bernanke's excessive monetary easing. In 2005, Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks from excessive leveraging in the financial system at the Jackson Hole conference.
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Mr. Rajan Was Unpopular (But Prescient) at Greenspan Party
Wall Street Journal 01/02/2009
Interest Rates: The Zero Percent Solution
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The Case Against the Bernanke-Obama Financial Rescue
New York Times 05/16/2014
Charting the Economic Fault Lines
BusinessWeek 02/10/2011
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2011
The U.S., China, and 'Rebalancing' the World Economy
01/07/2010
'Rebalancing' is the idea that China will consumer more US goods and export less to the US, reducing the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. China's government continues its focus on exports and infrastructure in 2009-2011. China's banking system focusses on lending to state-owned companies and the system does not have the attitude, incentives or the mechanisms and experience to increase lending to consumers or small business. Experts say rebalancing is doubtful without serious changes in the banking system and government policy which are not likely.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
Economist 03/31/2010
Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2013
US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick
Economist 09/25/2010
Adidos and Hotwind? In China, Brands Evoke Foreign Names, Even if They’re Gibberish
New York Times 12/26/2014
Levels of U.S. imports and the rebalancing of the economies of the U.S. and China
12/11/2010
Grouped Articles
Cities Adapt With Mixed Results
Wall Street Journal 09/27/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Surging Imports
Wall Street Journal 05/06/2015
Dollar’s Rise Lifts Imports and Widens Trade Gap
New York Times 05/05/2015
Asian economies: Importing pessimism
Economist 12/11/2010
How the economic crisis is affecting the U.S. as joblessness increases and people exhaust unemployment benefits.
07/10/2009
The situation in states like Michigan with the auto industry hit hard, and in other parts of the country.
Grouped Articles
Recipients of Jobless Benefits Down Sharply
Wall Street Journal 12/26/2014
Detroit's Food Banks Strain to Serve Middle Class
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2009
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
New York Times 07/15/2009
Jobs Report Highlights Shaky U.S. Recovery
New York Times 10/03/2009
It Will Be Years Before Lost Jobs Return -- and Many Never Will
Wall Street Journal 10/05/2009
BusinessWeek 10/09/2009
Comparisons of the U.S. Economy with Japan, considering the Federal Reserve's easy money policy and little lending by banks.
10/15/2009
Is the US economy already in a liquidity trap with exploding monetary growth and little consumer lending asks Christopher Wood. Views of other experts on the subject.
Grouped Articles
Target Is 'Flexible,' Says Japan Bank Chief
Wall Street Journal 04/12/2013
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
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Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2009
Economist 10/15/2009
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2009
Krugman on economic policy and prospects for the U.S. in 2010-12
08/08/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 08/08/2010
Bush Tax Cuts: Now That's Rich
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How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
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Laurence Meyer on the U.S. economy in 2011-2012
06/27/2011
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2011
What Derailed the Economic Recovery? Three Possible Explanations
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Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
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John B. Taylor: Monetary Policy and the Next Crisis
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2012
Nouriel Roubini on large housing losses for the U.S. economy in 2011-2012
12/07/2010
Estimates of $1 trillion in housing losses spread over banks, Fannie and Freddie, as a new wave of foreclosures hits the U.S. economy.
Grouped Articles
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
Wall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Dr Doom Predicts Another $1 Trillion in Housing Losses in 2011
New York Times 12/07/2010
Wall Street Journal 12/29/2010
Housing Market Is Still Facing a Blizzard
Wall Street Journal 12/29/2010
Rise in Rates Is Headwind for Housing
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2011
Number of the Week: Government’s Overwhelming Role in Mortgages
Wall Street Journal 02/12/2011
Thomas Hoenig and other experts on the "too big to fail" banking crisis that hovers over the U.S. economy
09/23/2010
Former Fed Governor of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for 20 years, Thomas Hoenig, has followed Fed policy over a long period. He has maintained throughout that government backing takes away an essential element in the safe and conservative practices of financial institutions by encouraging the taking of excessive risks. The only way to ensure their safety is for creditors to know they bear serious risks and for the systemically important financial insitutions to know that not following safe financial practices can put these institutions and management out of business.
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GE Capital, AIG to Get More Government Oversight
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Weâre All Still Hostages to the Big Banks
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Banks Ordered to Add Capital to Limit Risks
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Realistic perspectives on the U.S. economy with the consumer and bank bad debt overhang.
03/11/2009
High Frequency Economics's Ian Shepherdson and other experts look at the effect of debt in estimating growth.
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Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
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Tom Keene Talks with David Stockman
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Economist Shiller Sees Potential for 'Double Dip' Recession
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Views on U.S. financial reform at conferences
04/16/2010
Views expressed at the American Economic Association 2011 meeting that Dodd-Frank reforms have not made the changes needed.
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Trench Warfare: Send In the Deputies
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Obama Presses Regulators to Finish Financial Rules
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Obama Presses for Action on Bank Rules
New York Times 08/19/2013
Volcker Rule to Curb Bank Trading Proves Hard to Write
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2013
Experts Grade the Financial Legislation
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2010
How Regulators Mess With Bankers’ Minds, and Why That’s Good
New York Times 04/14/2016
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