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What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
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Reinhart and Rogoff say it takes over 7 years for the economy to recover completely from financial crises. This is the lesson from other financial crises in the last century. Economic contraction lasts about 2 years. Housing prices from peak to trough takes about 6 years. Unemployment takes longer to heal in developed countries. Unemployment goes up by about 7 percentage points, and increasing unemployment lasts an average of 5 years. And the debt that builds up from lower tax revenues and more spending needed in stimulus acts to slow growth. The big message from other crises studied by the two American economists is that debt tends to go up by about 85% in real terms during the first 3 years of a banking crisis. They says this means an additional $8-9 trillion for the U.S. A key point they make is that restructuring is necessary for the financial system, and the U.S. needs to allow financial institutions to be restructured through accelerated bankruptcy, temporary receivership, and only afterwards recapitalizing and reprivatizing.
Reviews of "This Time is Different" by Rogoff and Reinhart
01/21/2008
Boom, bust cycles, with high indebtedness, asset bubbles, and unsustainable current account deficits are followed by long periods of slow or nonexistent growth say Rogoff and Reinhart in their new book. This raises questions about the now current hypothesis that economic recovery will take place in 2011-2013. As the book's title suggests there are long periods in history that show this and it is gaining in credibility as the column by David Wessel in the Wall Street Journal July 21,2011, suggests.
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What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
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