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Tags: Early Warning, United States,
Krugman says $1.089 trillion to be exact for the fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He gives the 400-450-150 formula to understand what this means in simple terms. The debt would still be stable or declining as a ratio of GDP at $400 billion because of steady GDP growth. He cites the example of the period when debt to GDP declined from 49% to 33% because of steady growth during the Clinton years (1992-2000) even though Clinton started out in 2000 with a deficit. The $450 billion is from lower tax payments because of the 2008 economic crisis followed by recession which would be reversed with restored GDP growth. The $150 billion is from payments such as unemployment insurance, food stamps, to cushion the effects of that crisis and the recession, which would be reversed with restored economic growth.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 09/06/2011
New York Times 09/08/2013
Bush Tax Cuts: Now That's Rich
New York Times 08/22/2010
New York Times 10/10/2010
Strong Dollar Stands in Manufacturing Sector’s Way
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2015
Dollar’s Rise Poses Risk for Fed Plans
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2016
In the face of rising deficits, and questions about the future solvency of Medicare and Social Security, there are questions about the Bush tax cuts which expire in December 2010 if not renewed. With high unemployment the consensus seems to be to leave the tax cuts in place for a limited period, and have serious conversation about taxes when a new presidential term begins. A Value added Tax has been suggested by Paul Volcker, similar to that in Europe.
Grouped Articles
The Wisdom and Folly of the Bush Tax Cuts
BusinessWeek 08/05/2010
New York Times 08/21/2010
Bush Tax Cuts: Now That's Rich
New York Times 08/22/2010
Why the Rich Donât Need a Tax-Cut Extension
New York Times 09/25/2010
Tax-Cut Vote Shows Democratic Divide
Wall Street Journal 12/03/2010
New York Times 12/02/2010
Increasing concern about the deficit and efforts to cut the deficit.
Grouped Articles
Budget Deficit Returns to Prerecession Levels
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Smallest in Nearly Seven Years
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Jobs Bill vs. Deficit, a Showdown in the Senate
New York Times 06/01/2010
The Wisdom and Folly of the Bush Tax Cuts
BusinessWeek 08/05/2010
Bush Tax Cuts: Now That's Rich
New York Times 08/22/2010
Alice Rivlin's Bid to Cut the Deficit
BusinessWeek 10/21/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 08/08/2010
Bush Tax Cuts: Now That's Rich
New York Times 08/22/2010
New York Times 09/05/2010
New York Times 10/10/2010
New York Times 06/07/2012
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Grouped Articles
From President Obama, Economic Clarity but Little Courage
Washington Post 04/15/2009
New York Times 11/06/2009
Broader Measure of U.S. Unemployment Stands at 17.5%
New York Times 11/07/2009
Small Businesses Hunker Down to Survive
New York Times 11/08/2009
Maybe a New Day for Doctors’ Pay
New York Times 11/08/2009
Letters: The Price to Pay for Health Care
New York Times 11/08/2009
Failures to address problems on the housing front, especialy the problems for 15 million homeowners under water- see the links to opeds by Feldstein suggesting focus on these issues throughout 2008-2009. And the focus on health care which diverted attention from this problem and the problem facing bad loans in commercial real estate. Other problems are failure to get bank lending up for businesses. And the failure of Obama health care plans to control the increase in the nation's surging health care spending, instead increasing the deficit to unsustainable levels. Public sentiment as shown in WSJ/NBC polls confirm Feldstein's sense of the situation.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 12/08/2013
From President Obama, Economic Clarity but Little Courage
Washington Post 04/15/2009
Wall Street Journal 09/12/2007
How to Stop the Mortgage Crisis
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2008
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2008
Enough With the Interest Rate Cuts
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2008
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