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Rule of Four
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Carmen Reinhart formerly at the Federal Reserve, says after a severe banking crisis it takes about 4 years to see a return to normal growth. With the current crisis having other facets like the overextended consumer intertwined with banking crisis, it is likely that it would take this long. He cautions business not to be overoptimistic.
Reviews of "This Time is Different" by Rogoff and Reinhart
01/21/2008
Boom, bust cycles, with high indebtedness, asset bubbles, and unsustainable current account deficits are followed by long periods of slow or nonexistent growth say Rogoff and Reinhart in their new book. This raises questions about the now current hypothesis that economic recovery will take place in 2011-2013. As the book's title suggests there are long periods in history that show this and it is gaining in credibility as the column by David Wessel in the Wall Street Journal July 21,2011, suggests.
Grouped Articles
Seminal Economic Paper on Debt Draws Criticism
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2013
New York Times 04/18/2013
Spreadsheet Slips Not Economists' Only Problem
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2013
How to Fix the Economy: An Expert Panel
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2009
New York Times 03/01/2009
Alternative views to the economic contractions and slow growth theory after financial crises in Rogoff's "This Time Is Different"
02/03/2009
Grouped Articles
Seminal Economic Paper on Debt Draws Criticism
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2013
New York Times 04/18/2013
Spreadsheet Slips Not Economists' Only Problem
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2013
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2009
New York Times 03/01/2009
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Reinhart and Rogoff on the lessons from other financial crises for the global financial crisis of 2008- it takes about 7 years to recover completely
02/03/2009
Grouped Articles
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2009
In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 03/01/2009
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
A Grecian Formula for Courting Disaster
Wall Street Journal 07/07/2015
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
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