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Trump's solution for creating jobs- an illusion?
03/23/2016
With no tangible solutions for creating jobs, and a policy of high tariffs that could create trade wars and destabilize the global economy hurting growth worldwide, jobs lost in the last decade mostly not coming back, questions raised about how this will improve the prospects for jobs, upward mobility for middle class, working class people.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2016
A transcript of Donald Trump’s meeting with The Washington Post editorial board - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/23/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece
07/06/2015
Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.
Linked Articles
IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
How to Undo the Damage in GreeceNew York Times 07/06/2015
The real story behind the higher growth in the Reagan-Clinton years, the lower growth during the Bush-Obama years and Jeb Bush's 4% target
06/18/2015
Linked Articles
New York Times 06/19/2015
Hillary Got It Right About GrowthWall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Tech Startup Box Inc. in cloud computing- travails of co-founders Aaron Levie and Dylan Smith with the IPO process and changing market sentiment
04/19/2015
Changing market sentiment about Box Inc. consistent losses as it goes after rapid growth, with one anayst calling it "a house of horrors," a long IPO process and investor demands, have an unnerving and distracting effect on the founders. Langley and Hardy describe the experience of startup founders as competition and market perceptions change.
Linked Articles
Rich, but Not Silicon Valley Rich for Founders of Box
Wall Street Journal 04/24/2015
Box, Provider of Cloud-Computing Services, Faces Make-or-Break MomentNew York Times 04/19/2015
Learning in shale oil production for cost efficient ways suggest continuing growth in U.S. shale oil supplies for 2015-2020
03/06/2015
Linked Articles
U.S. Producers Ready New Oil Wave
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2015
Exxon Mobil: Shale to the ChiefWall Street Journal 03/06/2015
Deep differences in 2015 between Alexis Tsipras of Syriza and the Merkel government in Germany on debt forgiveness and the bailouts for Greece
01/26/2015
The deep differences between Greeks and Merkel operate at two levels. On the level of austerity policies Greece shares the view with other EU countries, the governments of Hollande in France and Renzi in Italy that austerity is not the best course for the eurozone. This view is also shared by people in Spain facing unemployment exceeding 20%, though the government of Rajoy in Spain like that of Samaras in Greece lived with the austerity policies with some changes. At this level there is also support from within Merkel's coalition government from Social Democrats. The other level of deep differences is on debt forgiveness and bailouts where Greece has to find its own way out in negotiations hoping that the EU and the IMF will agree to make concessions based on action taken by Syriza to ensure prudence in fianncial management. On issues such as minimum wage one would expect Syriza to be firm and make concessions where the hardship does not fall on the poorer and working class, winning support from the Social Democrats in Merkel's coalition. Beyond the symbolic moves and posturing the actual negotiations are likely to take into account the eurozone's need for help on the fiscal side desired by the ECB's Draghi to support monetary easing to fight deflation, and the need to keep the eurozone intact at a sensitive time. Syriza for its part is aware that a majority of Greeks favor staying in the eurozone.
Linked Articles
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
A young, impatient leftist is Greece’s defiant new face - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/27/2015
Australia faces the risk of recession in 2015 as the mining boom ends
12/01/2014
Growth slows rapidly, and the currency declines, as the mining boom in Australia ends.
Linked Articles
Australia Faces Painful Choices in Economic Slowdown
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
China’s Slowdown Hits Price of Iron OreWall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Why China's growth rate is likely to slow even further- below the 7% target set by the government
10/17/2014
Linked Articles
China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
New York Times 10/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of ChinaEconomist 10/17/2014
Much needed boost from lower oil prices for eurozone countries Germany, France, Italy and Spain
10/09/2014
For countries like Germany in the eurozone with what Draghi calls "fiscal space" but did not use it, the drop in oil prices from $100 to $65 in 2014 offers relief at the right time to get back to growth in 2015.
Linked Articles
Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in GermanyNew York Times 10/09/2014
Euribor close to zero and relief for suffering homeowners with mortgages in Spain, Portugal and other eurozone countries
05/28/2014
Most mortgages in Spain and Portugal are based on the Euribor rate. The ECB's monetary policy under Draghi has led to the decline of the Euribor rate to near zero in 2015, giving homeowners in extremely high unemployment countries such as Spain and Portugal much needed relief. Homeowners in Italy, with stagnant incomes and high unemployment, and other eurozone countries also get relief.
Linked Articles
Tumbling Interest Rates in Europe Leaves Some Banks Owing Money on Loans to Borrowers
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
Spain Still Suffering Fallout From Housing BustWall Street Journal 05/28/2014
The ways in which the Modi administration can accelerate growth in India (2) - rapid technology adoption and the synergy between new technologies, human resources and invested capital
05/17/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/17/2014
Tata Consultancy Services CEO Welcomes Narendra Modi ElectionWall Street Journal 05/19/2014
France's Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi of Italy call for lower taxes and relaxing austerity drive in 2014-2015
02/26/2014
Linked Articles
New French Premier Revisits Deficit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2014
Renzi's Italian JobWall Street Journal 02/26/2014
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
The difficult dynamic between eurozone negotiator Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem and Greece's negotiator Varoufakis that led to the collapse of talks on June 25, 2015- leading to the referendum and the Third Bailout program
07/02/2015
Linked Articles
Hopeful Start to Greek Debt Negotiations Quickly Soured
New York Times 07/02/2015
Eurozone Finance Chief Recounts Brinkmanship That Led to Greek DealWall Street Journal 07/17/2015
Hard realities- what a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 could do for Greece and for the European Union
04/29/2015
The Economist says Greece could end up becoming a failed state at the doorstep of the European Union. With the major parties losing support extreme parties on the right and left would increase support. The economy of Greece would suffer serious damage. As prices have declined by 16% with no surge in exports, a devaluation of the drachma would not be of much help. Argentina went through a period of severe hardship following the default on the currency. Greece, says the Economist, may be engaging in a strategy to extract concessions from the EU by waiting till the last minute. Yet this strategy has its drawbacks because of the damage to Greece's economy in the process, with the slight growth under the Samaras administration turning into a recession with the 6 months of the Syriza government in 2015.
Linked Articles
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
My big fat Greek divorceEconomist 06/20/2015
The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
04/17/2015
The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.
Linked Articles
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic DiscordWall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Resilience of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (2) the oil industry and modest growth in 2015
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
The challenges facing K-12 education in the U.S. in 2015 with a larger proportion of children from less affluent and poor backgrounds, and two thirds of American children failing math and reading proficiency required levels in 8th grade for 2015
01/17/2015
With a majority of children in California, Texas, and some midwestern states in the U.S. from less affluent or poor backgrounds, and about two thirds of all American students failiing to meet required proficiency in math and reading at 8th grade, the educational challenge of of creating a well qualified work force to build America's future is daunting. Eight years of policy changes in education and private efforts have failed to produce adequate results.
Linked Articles
U.S. student performance slips on national test - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/28/2015
Majority of U.S. public school students are in poverty - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/17/2015
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
Dangers of credit fueled bubble in China- 2015-2016
10/17/2014
Bob Davis of WSJ sees the end of China's economic miracle in 2015-2016. He is pessimistic about the future. The Economist cites estimates of debt to GDP reaching 250%, and the IMF warns of the dangers of credit fueled growth citing examples of Ireland, Spain, Brazil and Sweden.
Linked Articles
The End of China’s Economic Miracle?
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of ChinaEconomist 10/17/2014
Low growth, the ambiguity of market signals, and the U.S. stock market in 2014
08/27/2014
Linked Articles
Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for RealWall Street Journal 08/27/2014
The ways in which the Modi administration can accelerate growth in India (1)- the boost from approval of projects already in the pipeline but stalled for lack of leadership
05/17/2014
Linked Articles
Tata Consultancy Services CEO Welcomes Narendra Modi Election
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2014
Business Executives in India Ready to Welcome Modi AdministrationWall Street Journal 05/17/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy to leave bond buying tapering unchanged and the lower U.S. growth from adverse weather in 4th quarter 2013-1st quarter 2014
02/28/2014
Yellen leaves Fed policy on the same course as lower growth is attributed to bad weather in Feb. 2014.
Linked Articles
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking LikelyWall Street Journal 03/02/2014
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