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My big fat Greek divorce
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Both sides harden positions before the June 30th deadline for 1.5 billion euro repayment of debt to the IMF. Greece's prime minister Tsipras accuses the IMF of "criminal responsibility" for the pain of austerity programs in Greece. Eurozone leaders says Greece's default on its debt and exit from the eurozone is a possibility. The Economist points out that a Greek default and Greece's exit from the eurozone would be a mistake. It points out that this means repudiating debts of 317 billion euros, or about 180% of GDP. Yet the repayment is at low interest rates spread out over decades. Until the early 2020's interest rates are about 3% of GDP a year. In theory a devaluation would help exports, but Greece with its small trading position, may not see much benefit. The drop in nominal wages by 16% has not led to a surge in exports. The cost in terms of broken banks, sharp decline in savings, and collapse of confidence could be disastrous. The very people Syriza is trying to protect the poor and elderly, would be hit hardest, as the collapse in the currency would lead to a shift to a barter economy as in Argentina during its default crisis. For the European Union, the problem would not go away, as it would have to deal with a bigger problem of a failed state on the Aegean on the EU's southern flank. Syriza's gamble that this can be used to extract concessions by holding off till the last minute is failing, because it is leading Greece back to contraction after the small growth in 2014 under prime minister Samaras- with capital flight from the banks and investors leaving in a general fall in confidence. The management of the economy and negotiations by Syriza is now seen as incompetent and has jeopardized any difficult progress made.
Difficult negotiations between the Syriza government in Greece and the E.U., ECB, IMF, in Feb.- June 2015
01/26/2015
Grouped Articles
New Leader in Greece Now Faces Creditors
New York Times 01/26/2015
Greece Moves Quickly to Roll Back Austerity
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Russia Links Loom Larger as Greece Seeks Debt Relief
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Greece Runs Into Doubt Over Europe Deal
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
IMF Says No Talks With Greece to Change Debt-Relief Framework
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
ECB Holds the Cards in Greek Standoff
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2015
Spain's Partido Popular Rajoy government and the EU negotiatons with Greece in 2015
01/29/2015
Spain's Rajoy government's views are that committments made by the former government of Antonis Samaras in Greece should be kept, as negotiations take place with the newly elected Syriza government in Greece. The Spanish government sees the increasing popularity of a Syria type party called Podemos in Spain, as putting at risk its own fragile economic recovery.
Grouped Articles
Why the Eurozone May Need to Sacrifice Greece to Save Spain
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Greek Stocks and Bonds Sink After ECB Debt Decision
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2015
New York Times 02/27/2015
New York Times 04/20/2015
Greece Says It Is Changing Team That Negotiates With Creditors
New York Times 04/27/2015
The James Dean Movie That Explains the Greek Debt Negotiations
New York Times 04/28/2015
Brinksmanship in the EU- Greece's Syriza government negotiations just before the June 30, 2015 date for debt repayment to the IMF
04/22/2015
Grouped Articles
Economist 06/20/2015
Greece and Its Creditors Pummel Each Other, but Fight Is Not Over Yet
New York Times 06/19/2015
Greece’s Creditors Make Some Concessions as Showdown Approaches
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015
The Heat Is on Greece’s Alexis Tsipras, From Inside and Out
New York Times 05/24/2015
Greece’s Long and Painful Odyssey
Wall Street Journal 04/22/2015
A Finance Minister Fit for a Greek Tragedy?
New York Times 05/20/2015
Pension system in Greece, retirees and Greece's negotiations with the EU in June 2015
06/08/2015
Grouped Articles
Pensions in Greece Feel the Pinch of Debt Negotiations
New York Times 06/08/2015
As Greece Deadline Looms, European Central Bank Plays Key Role
New York Times 06/21/2015
Greece and Its Creditors Pummel Each Other, but Fight Is Not Over Yet
New York Times 06/19/2015
Economist 06/20/2015
Greece Calls Referendum on Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2015
The crazy reason we might be facing a huge crisis in Greece again - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/20/2016
Yannis Palaiologos of Katherimini newspaper on Greece in 2015, the rise of Syriza and Tsipras, and the negotiations with the EU
01/21/2015
Palaiologos gives a Greek view of the debt crisis and a failing grade for the Pasok and New Democracy parties in letting Greece fall into the debt crisis and failing to improve tax collection to protect a favored elite. The quick rise of Syriza is a response to the situation where much of the burden of servicing the debt, the spending cuts and the higher taxes, has fallen on the lower and working classes, with the upper classes in Greece failing to pay their fair share of taxes to cut the budget deficit.
Grouped Articles
Greece Is Set on a Collision Course With Europe
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2015
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2015
New York Times 02/27/2015
Greece’s Long and Painful Odyssey
Wall Street Journal 04/22/2015
Greece Says It Is Changing Team That Negotiates With Creditors
New York Times 04/27/2015
The James Dean Movie That Explains the Greek Debt Negotiations
New York Times 04/28/2015
Hard realities- what a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 could do for Greece and for the European Union
04/29/2015
The Economist says Greece could end up becoming a failed state at the doorstep of the European Union. With the major parties losing support extreme parties on the right and left would increase support. The economy of Greece would suffer serious damage. As prices have declined by 16% with no surge in exports, a devaluation of the drachma would not be of much help. Argentina went through a period of severe hardship following the default on the currency. Greece, says the Economist, may be engaging in a strategy to extract concessions from the EU by waiting till the last minute. Yet this strategy has its drawbacks because of the damage to Greece's economy in the process, with the slight growth under the Samaras administration turning into a recession with the 6 months of the Syriza government in 2015.
Linked Articles
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
Economist 06/20/2015
Greece and EU in 2015- (1) How close were the 2 parties in the negotiations? Is default and eurozone exit good for Greece?
06/03/2015
Linked Articles
Greece’s Creditors Make Some Concessions as Showdown Approaches
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015
Economist 06/20/2015
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