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The End of China’s Economic Miracle?
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WSJ reporter Bob Davis writes this report on the end of the China economic miracle in 2014 as he completes a 4 year assignment covering China. He says China's economy is slowing rapidly and he is pessimistic abou the future. Construction cranes visible across China's skyline says Davis, can no longer be interpreted as growth inducing. With rows upon rows of empty flats in third and fourth tier cities which account for the bulk of the increase in housing construction, the consequences of a debt fueled construction boom are easy to see. Davis cites the IMF on the dangers of credit fueled growth in China- only 4 countries have experienced as rapid an increase in credit to GDP ratio in 5 years. Each of the 4 countries Brazil, Ireland, Spain and Sweden experienced a sharp decline in GDP growth and banking crises following the credit bubble. Estimates of debt to GDP are as high as 250% for China. Krugman, Roubini and other economists have warned about the credit bubble, saying China is no exception to the rule for the risks posed by such a bubble.
China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
05/29/2010
China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
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The likelihood that the economy will stall without change. The declining effect of large stimulus and fixed investment in producing growth. The interests of state-owned companies in continuing with the current system.
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Business in India: A bumpier but freer road
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India's Industrial Output Takes a Steep Fall
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The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
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CHina's private debt is over twice China's GDP according to Fitch Ratings analyst Charlene Chu
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Former World Bank chief Zoellick on the need for productivity improvements and investment in human capital for emerging markets in 2013-2023
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India, S. Africa, Brazil China, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and other emerging markets need productivity improvements and investment in human capital as growth slows in emerging markets in 2013. The crisis is particularly acute in India.
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Krugman on China, "shadow banking," bubble in housing and construction, and shrinking role of consumer spending in GDP growth
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Krugman says China's economic planners are no better then planners in the U.S. and Europe who failed to take action against the housing bubble.
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Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
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China's debt situation in 2014 with total debt to GDP of 250%, and the risks to the economy
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China's local government debt poses a risk for the economy
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China's local government debt is estimated to be in the range of 27% to 42% of GDP. Loans by banks to local government financing vehicles face high risk of default.
Grouped Articles
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China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
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I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
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Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Dangers of credit fueled bubble in China- 2015-2016
10/17/2014
Bob Davis of WSJ sees the end of China's economic miracle in 2015-2016. He is pessimistic about the future. The Economist cites estimates of debt to GDP reaching 250%, and the IMF warns of the dangers of credit fueled growth citing examples of Ireland, Spain, Brazil and Sweden.
Linked Articles
The End of China’s Economic Miracle?
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of China
Economist 10/17/2014
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