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Hopeful Start to Greek Debt Negotiations Quickly Soured

New York Times Original article ›

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This report by Landon Thomas Jr. of the NYT describes what happened in the days before and the 48 hours before the referendum decision was announced by June 27, 2015. It shows talks progressing right up to Monday, June 22, 2015. By June 23 Greece received a paper marked in red from the IMF, EU and the ECB on their proposal of June 22. The Greek proposal of June 22 rejected pension cuts and removal of tax breaks for Greek islands, but proposing instead a series of tax increases and increase in pension contributions to be made by companies in Greece. The reply marked up disagreement areas on the paper which voiced objections to too many tax increases as hurting business growth, need to simplify value added taxes, and insisting on pension cuts and reforms. The two advisors Tsipras had used were a complete contrast to the new advisor and finance minister Mr. Tsakalotos he was to use in negotiations after July 7, 2015. Nikos Pappas is described here as an academic with a temper and Varoufakis as a person who would not hesitate to confront and lecture the creditors negotiators. Varoufakis who already had arguments and shouting matches with his counterparts on the other side, had a difficult relationship with the Dutch finance minister, Dijsselbloem, who was the chief of eurozone finance ministers. Dijseelbloem especially objected to Varoufakis lecturing on the need for a debt haircut. Varoufakis was removed from the discussions for a period of several weeks as a result and his reintroduction on June 25 was to have a negative effect on the EU and German negotiators. The same issue of debt came up again in discussions on June 25, 2015, and Varoufakis confronted the EU ministers by calling on the IMF's Christine Lagarde to state if the debt was sustainable. Before that Dijsselbloem had already told him flatly that any discussion on debt reduction would make a deal impossible. At one point German finance minister Schauble argued with EU official Pierre Muscovici of France about his favorable comments on the Greece proposal, saying he could not get the Greek proposal through the German parliament, and saying the ony solution now was capital controls. IMF's Christine Lagarde responded by saying that debt reduction needed to be considered. According to this report the Dutch finance mnister did not wait for Lagarde to explain- he told Varoufakis that it was take it or leave it.

Yanis Varoufakis as new finance minister in the Syriza government in Greece

01/27/2015

The new government as three professors at the finance ministry, the Economics superministry which includes tourism, marine and transport, and the Foreign ministry. Varoufakis is a professor at the University of Texas who was asked by Tsipras to return to Greece in 2014 to run for parliament in the upcoming election. This shows a growing influence of academics and professors in Greece's government as the politicians are seen to have failed badly. Yannis Stournaras the finance minister in the Samaras government in 2012-2014, was a professor of macroeconomics at the University of Athens.

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During the last minute negotiations Tsipras veered from one side to the other. Initially he moved closer to Syriza party leaders who favored an accomodation with the IMF and EU, yet with each rejection of Greece's proposals he moved closer to the confrontational postiion of finance minister Varoufakis. The IMF and EU negotiators considered higher taxes on business in the Greek proposals hurting long term growth, and insisted on pension cuts. Greece's negotiating team was still negotiating over details when Tsipras called off talks and surprised European leaders with his call for a referendum. His announcement that Syriza would call for a no was badly received by EU leaders and Merkel, leading to a breakdown in trust. The inexperience of 40 year old Tsipras and the faculty professor Varoufakis's lack of experience with negotiations, may now have damaged relations between Greece and Germany. The reaction in Germany to this is that now a majority of Germans see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best option, and the goodwill of leaders in France, Italy and Spain may have been lost.

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In the talks after July 7, Greece's new negotiator Tsakalotos showed a complete change of approach, listening to his counterparts on the other side which changed the tone of the talks. Another helpful factor was the role played by premier Manuel Valls and president Hollande of France in sending advisors to Athens to make sure the details were already worked out. The softspoken Tsakalotos from St Paul's School and Oxford, the Spanish born Valls, and chancellor Merkel with her ability to get German opinion behind her for the sake of Europe, may emerge as the wiser heads in this crisis.

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