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Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
Keywords:
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, is a think tank economist who was Economy minister before becoming chief economic advisor to Russian president Putin in 2012. She is one of the liberal economists in Russia who see the years of economic growth following ruble devaluation in 1998 as an example of how devaluation can actually help the economy. The devaluation lowers costs for manufacturing and agriculture, and is seen by some economists as having done more than oil price increases to help the Russian economy grow during president Putin's first term from 1999 to 2004. Nabiullina's position to support a free float after the sharp decline in the value of the ruble following the plunge in oil prices, is based on the need she sees to use the crisis to reduce Russian overdependence on imports. This policy had other advantages by reducing the need to tap Russia's foreign currency reserves to defend the ruble. Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves are at $385 billion. In Jan 2015 the central bank cut interest rates. A policy of increasing rates would trigger a sharper recesssion. Russia faces a unique situation in that the oil price decline and the decline in the value of the ruble occurred at about the same time of about 50%, so that the budget continues to be balanced. The number of rubles coming in from oil exports remains the same after the crisis. Nabiullina told Russia 24 television- "We have to live in a different zone, Russians should orient ourselves more toward our own sources of financing projects, and to give a chance to import substitution."
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and efforts to use the decline in the ruble to reduce Russia's overdependence on imports
03/12/2013
Nabiullina is one of the liberal economists who see the period following the devaluation of the ruble in 1998 as generating higher economic growth because it lowered the cost for industry and agriculture. She sees the crisis as a way to get Russians to use less imports and promote import substitution for a healthier economy.
Grouped Articles
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Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker Says
Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Russia Says It Has Weathered the Worst of the Economic Storm
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
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Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Memories of the 1998 collapse of the ruble as Russia uses a third of its foreign exchange reserves in 2009 to support the ruble
02/04/2009
Reserves drop from $600 billion to $385 billion as Russia uses its reserves to support the ruble in 2009. Memories of the poverty and humiliation suffered as the ruble collapsed in 1997 remained uppermost in the minds of Russians.
Grouped Articles
Russia Faces Tough Fight on Ruble
Wall Street Journal 02/04/2009
Russian Ruble Hits Fresh Record Low Against Dollar
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2014
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Russian Ruble Fall to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Inflation-Racked Russia Considering Price Controls
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Ruble Slide Worries Wealthy Russians
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2014
Actions taken by Medvedev and Putin to improve business and public confidence on Dec. 17, 2014, as the ruble hits 80 to the dollar
12/17/2014
As one Russian economic expert put it we are just days from needing external help if no serious action is taken to restore public and business confidence in the ruble. On Dec. 17, 2014, Russian leaders took action to improve confidence and the ruble recovered by 11%. The role of Kudrin, Medvedev, and other advisers from the first and second terms of Putin is increasing as Russia faces increasing economic risks and deep recession.
Grouped Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Ruble Crisis Is Testing Russia's Resources
New York Times 12/17/2014
Vladimir Putin’s Annual Year-End News Conference
New York Times 12/18/2014
New York Times 12/18/2014
As Ruble Falters, Russia Forces Exporters to Reduce Foreign Currency
New York Times 12/23/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Russia's effort to prevent the ruble from collapsing in December 2014
12/15/2014
Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on December 15, 2014, as the price of Brent crude drops below $60. Emerging markets see money outflows in anticipation of the the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates in 2015, adding to pressure on the ruble. Western sanctions imposed after Russian intervention in Ukraine has reduced access to financial markets for Russian businesses that borrowed in U.S. dollars and have large payments due in 2015. The large increase in interest rates pushes Russia into a recession in 2015.
Grouped Articles
Russia Moves to Help Lift Sinking Ruble
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
New York Times 12/18/2014
Interest Rate Raised to 17% in Russia
New York Times 12/15/2014
The pressure on the Russian ruble in 2014-2015
10/10/2014
Weak economic conditions, capital outflows and demand from the corporate sector to repay debt, add to the pressures on the ruble in 2014.
Grouped Articles
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Russian Ruble Fall to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Inflation-Racked Russia Considering Price Controls
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Ruble Slide Worries Wealthy Russians
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2014
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
The impact of the declining ruble on the Russian economy by December 2014
12/04/2014
The ruble declines to 52 to the dollar by Dec. 2014, losing about 40% of its value in 2014. Oil prices decline to about $67 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014 accelerating the fall in the ruble.
Grouped Articles
Falling oil prices hit Russia much harder than Western sanctions - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Weak Ruble Keeps Russians at Home
Wall Street Journal 12/14/2014
Russia Moves to Help Lift Sinking Ruble
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
The expected sales decline of 35% for 2015 in Russia's automobile market with the sharp decline in the ruble
02/09/2015
International automakers raised prices by as much as 56%, according to PwC. With the sharp decline in the ruble auto sales fell by 24% in January 2015. Sales are expected to be down by 35% for 2015, according to PwC.
Grouped Articles
Russian Car Sales Skid Lower Amid Economic Gloom
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2015
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
GM to Close Russian Assembly Plant
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Overheard: Ruble in the Rubble
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2015
Faces and life in Russia in 2014-2015 following western sanctions and the sharp decline in the ruble
12/14/2014
Grouped Articles
Weak Ruble Keeps Russians at Home
Wall Street Journal 12/14/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Russian Consumers Reflect the Pinch of Economic Sanctions
New York Times 04/09/2015
Russia- interest rates and the ruble
12/15/2014
Grouped Articles
Interest Rate Raised to 17% in Russia
New York Times 12/15/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Russian ruble volatility in Dec 2014 and Jan. 2015
12/16/2014
Capital controls are ruled out as this could lead to more capital flight. Russian central bank reduces intervention to preserve foreign currency reserves.
Grouped Articles
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Ruble Crisis Is Testing Russia's Resources
New York Times 12/17/2014
New York Times 12/18/2014
As Ruble Falters, Russia Forces Exporters to Reduce Foreign Currency
New York Times 12/23/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
The Bank of Russia and the decision to float the ruble in Nov. 2014
11/19/2014
With Russia's dollar currency reserves dropping to $421 billion, less than enough to cover 6 months of imports, the Bank of Russia had no option but to let the ruble float freely, say experts. The ruble was at 46 to the dollar by mid-Nov. 2014. Experts say it would have to fall to 50 to the dollar to risk financial stability.
Grouped Articles
Bank of Russia Chief Defends Ruble Float
Wall Street Journal 11/19/2014
Oil Slide Deepens, Ruble Crumbles
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
The Russian ruble in 2010-2014
02/04/2009
Grouped Articles
Russian Ruble Slips to 7-Month Low as Investors Grow Cold
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2010
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia Faces Tough Fight on Ruble
Wall Street Journal 02/04/2009
Raising Stakes on Russia, U.S. Adds Sanctions
New York Times 07/16/2014
Russian Ruble Hits Fresh Record Low Against Dollar
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2014
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
How the decision to not cut OPEC oil production was reached at the November 2014 Vienna meeting
12/04/2014
The decision leads to a drop in oil prices below $70 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014. A decision by Russia and Rosneft not to cut production, along with cuts by Mexico and the OPEC countries including Venezuela, leads to dropping of a Venezuelan proposal for oil production cuts. This turns out to have been a strategic mistake for Russia as the oil price drops accelerated a decline in the value of the ruble, aggravating a situation made difficult by western sanctions limiting capital access on global capital markets, capital flight, and higher inflation. The decision was presented as a Saudi effort to gain market share in the U.S. which had fallen sharply with increased shale oil production. By taking the Venezuelan proposal into consideration the Saudis maintained OPEC unity, while leaving open the possibility of reevaluating the decision in 2015 after observing the movement in oil price and supplies. The move hurts Iran, Russia and Venezuela which face severe economic constraints. It benefits India which faced severe energy import difficulties.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop Up Oil
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2014
Saudi Arabia Vows to Ride Out Oil Price Slump
New York Times 12/21/2014
Oil’s Swift Fall Raises Fortunes of U.S. Abroad
New York Times 12/24/2014
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Resilence of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (1) the decision to let the ruble float in Nov. 2014
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and Russia's response to the collapse in oil prices that helped avoid effects on the economy
02/09/2015
Exceptional performance by an exceptional economy minister and banker. Elvira Nabiullina's humility, drive and policies help shape Russia's careful management of the collapse in oil prices.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Resilience of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (2) the oil industry and modest growth in 2015
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
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