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Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
Keywords:
ECB president Draghi tells a Brookings Institution audience on Oct. 9, 2014 "for governments that have fiscal space, then of course it makes sense to use it," referring to Germany. IMF's Christine Lagarde is also calling on Germany to increase spending. The German statistics office says exports declined 5.8% in August from prior month. Mr. Draghi also emphasized that the survival of European governments depended on getting economic changes right- "if they don't do the right things, they will disappear forever because they will not be re-elected." Germany's respected economic institutes said in a joint statement that GDP growth in 2014 will be down from earlier forecast of 1.9% to 1.3%. In 2015 growth is forecast at 1.2%. For the 3rd quarter 2014 growth is zero and for the 4th quarter 2014 it is estimated at 0.1%. Economic contraction is not ruled out.
Germany, the EU, the eurozone and economic policy in Merkel's third term- 2014-
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How Mario Draghi, ECB president, sees the problems in the eurozone and policy direction in 2012-2015
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A wide ranging interview with Mario Draghi by Wall Street Journal reporters Blackstone, Karnitschnig and Thomson, which gives insights on how Draghi sees solutions to the crisis in the eurozone and future policy. Draghi favors good fiscal consolidation which combines freeing up labor markets and structural changes for Italy, Spain and other southern countries, with spending reductions, and capital investment in the future as opposed to tax increases for current spending and lack of capital investment for future growth. He points out that with excessive debt to GDP ratios there is no alternative to this right kind of fiscal consolidation. The fiscal consolidation gives the structural changes time to be put in place..
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E.C.B. Plots Strategy for Staving Off Deflation
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France's 2015 "no-austerity" budget- adapting to a situation of estimated 0.4% growth for 2014
10/01/2014
Even the focus on "no austerity" leaves 50 billion in euros of cuts which will be pushed into 2016-2017. With the critics of Hollande on the left saying he is undermining France's social welfare model. With inflation at estimated 0.3% in the eurozone for September 2014 this is a perilous time of no growth and deflationary tendencies.
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France Produces a ‘No Austerity’ Budget, Defying E.U. Rules
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Germany, France Tap Economists for Advice to Avoid ‘Lost Decade’
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The IMF's changing views on the value of austerity measures and the "German hypothesis"
04/05/2009
The IMF's economic models suggest that it would take 5 years for the breakeven point at which the economic benefits of austerity measures start exceeding the costs of the measures in declining GDP and higher unemployment. The German view is that this can occur in the short term.
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Issues of funding for services and infrastructure, immigration, women's issues, take centre stage in Sweden's 2014 parliamentary elections
09/14/2014
Sweden's centre right government loses the 2014 election with 39.3% of the vote, the Social Democrats allied to the Green Party win about 43.7% of the vote. A far right party calling for 90% cuts in immigrant integration funding doubles its vote. Immigrants mainly from war torn Syria, Iraq and Somalia. The increased voting for the far right comes mainly from the centre right government party. The women's party gets 3.1% of the vote. The Social Democrats argued that the centre right government had pursued policies that were leading to a deterioration in services, education and infrastructure through its austerity programs. Sweden's centre right government had supported the policies of Germany's Angela Merkel for tight control on spending.
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Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
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Germany logs annual GDP increase of 1.9 percent | News | DW.COM | 12.01.2017
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The ECB's Mario Draghi on market and economic conditions in the eurozone in mid- 2014, Oct-Nov. 2014
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Draghi says any risks of a bubble should be tackled with tighter financial regulation and not by raising rates for fragile economies in Europe in 2014-2015. He sees frothy conditions in the market but no signs of a bubble in the eurozone.
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Draghi Sees No Risk of Eurozone Bubbles
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Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
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ECB’s Draghi Sees No Bubble in Eurozone Government Bond Market
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Italy's Renzi government's 2014 tax cuts of 10 billion euros with about $1000 annually going to middle and lower income households
04/19/2014
Efforts to stimulate consumer spending and provide relief to cash strapped households in Italy.
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Italy Cuts Income Taxes in Effort to Boost Economy
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Matteo Renzi Needs to Look Out for Italy First
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Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
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Plans to cut corporate taxes by 5% and individual income taxes by 12.5% in Spain for 2015-2016, reversing earlier tax increases
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The plan comes as the ruling Partido Popular party faces new parliamentary elections in 2015. This is a significant effort to reverse the austerity measures since 2011. Similiar moves are being made by the new government in Italy to reduce taxes and reverse earlier austerity moves. A new coalition government of the CDU with the Socialist SPD in Germany has created a new climate for these moves to reverse austerity.
Grouped Articles
Saying No to Austerity, Spain Unveils Tax Cuts
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European Union Blinks in Budget Battle With Italy and France
New York Times 10/28/2014
A shift in opinion towards vigorous discussion about austerity for the first time since 2010 when the eurozone crisis began- Valls, Gabriel, Asmussen, Renzi, Draghi, Lagarde join the debate
10/09/2014
Linked Articles
Germany, France Tap Economists for Advice to Avoid ‘Lost Decade’
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
New York Times 10/09/2014
Much needed boost from lower oil prices for eurozone countries Germany, France, Italy and Spain
10/09/2014
For countries like Germany in the eurozone with what Draghi calls "fiscal space" but did not use it, the drop in oil prices from $100 to $65 in 2014 offers relief at the right time to get back to growth in 2015.
Linked Articles
Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
New York Times 10/09/2014
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