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With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to Evaporate

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Koichi Hamada, a former professor of economcs at Yale University, is one of prime minister Abe's advisors for the policy called Abenomics. He says the increase in the consumption tax was never part of Abenomics. It was the legacy of the previous Democratic Party of Japan's policies and of prime minister Noda, who pushed for it in the last 2 years of his administration. Nikkei polls in 2011 showed 53% of the public opposed to the doubling of the consumption tax to 10% by 2015 proposed by Noda and passed in 2012. Ichiro Ozawa's group of legislators left the DPJ over this issue. The real force behind the push to double the tax was the Finance Ministry, which warned the Abe government that not increasing the tax would make Japan look fiscally irresponsible. The Finance Ministry appears to have lost sense of the timing and fiscal hawks in the LDP party had gone along with it. The deteriorating global economy in the third quarter has hurt Japanese exports, and the lack of wage increases coupled with the increase in the consumption tax to 8% from 5% made Japanese feel poorer, leading to conditions that exacerbated the situation. Recognizing this Yamamoto says Abe has called the snap election in Dec. 2014, after postponing the second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in 2015 which the Noda legislation set to the future date of 2017. He says Abe had to have the guts to take on the Finance Ministry for Abenomics to work.

Japan's snap election in December 2014 on Abenomics and a strategy to fight deflation

11/18/2014

Prime minister Abe overrules the Finance Ministry by delaying an increase in the consumption tax fom 8 to 10% in 2015. He calls a snap election for 2015. This WSJ editorial says Japan has tried the Finance Ministry's ideas for fiscal spending increases coupled with tax increases without success in fighting deflation, prime minister Abe now needs to get the third arrow of structural reform right and take supply side actions.

Grouped Articles

Japan’s Keynesian Recession

Wall Street Journal 11/18/2014

Calling Early Elections in Japan, Abe Rolls the Dice on the Economy

New York Times 11/18/2014

A Sudden Schism Between Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan Governor

New York Times 11/19/2014

Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

Nevermind Japan’s Recession Talk. Abenomics Is Working

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to Evaporate

New York Times 11/20/2014

Differences between prime minister Abe and Kuroda of the Bank of Japan on Abe's decision to delay an increase in consumption tax to 10% in 2015

11/19/2014

Grouped Articles

A Sudden Schism Between Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan Governor

New York Times 11/19/2014

Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to Evaporate

New York Times 11/20/2014

There’s No Recession at Japan Inc.

Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014

The first year of the Abe administration with popular support of 51%- 2013-2014

03/19/2014

Economic challenges and regional tensions as the Abe administration retains popular support after its first year in office. A planned sales tax increase in 2014 and slow growth poses challenges for economic policy.

Grouped Articles

Tests Begin to Mount for Japan's Abe

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Tokyo Tax Cutters

Wall Street Journal 06/14/2014

Japan Stock Rise Signals Global Approval of Abe Plans

Wall Street Journal 06/26/2014

Japan’s Abe Poised to Take Election Gamble

Wall Street Journal 11/17/2014

With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to Evaporate

New York Times 11/20/2014

Bank of Japan chief Kuroda's interview with foreign media, April 11, 2013, on flexible handling of policy to reach 2% inflation target

04/12/2013

Kuroda tells foreign media in an interview the BOJ will be watchful and vigilant that the new monetary policy does not create asset bubbles. BOJ will adjust policies accordingly and be flexible if this is happening. In that case it wil give more time to get to the inflaton target of 2%.

Grouped Articles

Target Is 'Flexible,' Says Japan Bank Chief

Wall Street Journal 04/12/2013

G-20 Backs Japan on Yen Policies

Wall Street Journal 04/20/2013

OECD Welcomes BOJ Inflation Target, Easing

Wall Street Journal 04/23/2013

BOJ Price Forecast Falls Short of Target

Wall Street Journal 04/28/2013

Bank of Japan's Inflation Game Going Into Extra Innings

Wall Street Journal 04/26/2013

Loud and Clear on Japanese Easing

Wall Street Journal 02/19/2014


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